# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 02 NA 021**** Barnet vs Boreham Wood at 02 NA 021**** Chesterfield vs Solihull at 02 NA 021**** Dag and Red vs Dover Athletic at 02 NA 021**** Halifax vs Hartlepool at 02 NA 021**** Weymouth vs Eastleigh at 02 NA 021**** Woking vs Aldershot at 02 NA 021**** Yeovil vs Torquay at 02 NA 021**** Stockport vs Altrincham at 02 NA 021**

###
Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wealdstone** and **Maidenhead** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wealdstone |
2.38 |
2.44 |
-1.0 |

Draw |
3.59 |
3.75 |
-1.2 |

Maidenhead |
2.70 |
3.10 |
-4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.02 |
-11.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
1.98 |
6.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (6.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wealdstone** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wealdstone** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance** at home**.

Wealdstone,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Sutton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Nov |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** as a guest**.

Maidenhead,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Bromley |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Solihull |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wealdstone** and the red line for guest team, **Maidenhead. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wealdstone |
25% |
33% |
24% |
18% |

Maidenhead |
30% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wealdstone** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Maidenhead** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.9** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wealdstone** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Maidenhead** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.98 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.48 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.33 |
4.23 |
3.00 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.26 |
3.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.36 |
3.84 |
3.16 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.48 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.42 |
2.81 |

Un 2.5 |
3.00 |
2.65 |
3.45 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.26 |
3.54 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.93 |
2.98 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.73 |
3.64 |

No Goal |
2.14 |
6.32 |
2.66 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.31 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.32 |
2.66 |

####
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###
Barnet vs Boreham Wood at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barnet** and **Boreham Wood** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barnet |
3.59 |
3.60 |
-0.1 |

Draw |
3.49 |
3.66 |
-1.3 |

Boreham Wood |
1.97 |
2.23 |
-5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.95 |
-2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.05 |
-2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barnet** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barnet** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance** at home**.

Barnet,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Woking |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Boreham Wood** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boreham Wood** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance** as a guest**.

Boreham Wood,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Bromley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Nov |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barnet** and the red line for guest team, **Boreham Wood. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barnet |
25% |
46% |
19% |
10% |

Boreham Wood |
21% |
33% |
26% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barnet** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Boreham Wood** to score **1.57 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the guest team **Boreham Wood ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barnet** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Boreham Wood** to score **1.45 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the guest team **Boreham Wood ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
19.23 |
0-1 |
4.33 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.33 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |

Gg |
1.69 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.46 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.36 |
4.44 |
2.85 |

2-3 goals |
4.21 |
3.36 |
2.15 |

4+ goals |
4.37 |
3.74 |
1.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.27 |
3.48 |
2.09 |

Un 1.5 |
2.36 |
4.44 |
2.85 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.63 |
7.42 |
1.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.55 |
2.39 |
3.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |
3.74 |
1.98 |

Un 3.5 |
3.38 |
3.63 |
2.33 |

Goal-Goal |
4.94 |
2.68 |
2.35 |

No Goal |
2.57 |
7.81 |
2.07 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.68 |
6.39 |
1.75 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
7.81 |
2.29 |

####
Go to Top

###
Chesterfield vs Solihull at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Chesterfield** and **Solihull** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Chesterfield |
2.47 |
2.17 |
5.6 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.86 |
-2.8 |

Solihull |
2.62 |
3.56 |
-10.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.98 |
-4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.02 |
-1.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Chesterfield (5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Chesterfield** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chesterfield** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance** at home**.

Chesterfield,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Barnet |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Weymouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Notts County |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Maidenhead |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Solihull** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Solihull** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance** as a guest**.

Solihull,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bromley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Chesterfield** and the red line for guest team, **Solihull. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Chesterfield |
24% |
29% |
25% |
22% |

Solihull |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Chesterfield** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Solihull** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Chesterfield** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Solihull** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Chesterfield ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.72 |
3.35 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.00 |
4.58 |
3.54 |

4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.38 |
4.43 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
4.08 |
3.81 |

Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.35 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
6.64 |
3.48 |

Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.70 |
3.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.38 |
4.43 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
4.06 |
3.33 |

Goal-Goal |
2.41 |
2.84 |
4.30 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.29 |
3.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.39 |
3.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.29 |
2.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Dag and Red vs Dover Athletic at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dag and Red** and **Dover Athletic** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dag and Red |
1.76 |
1.52 |
9.0 |

Draw |
3.70 |
4.65 |
-5.5 |

Dover Athletic |
4.16 |
7.87 |
-11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.00 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.00 |
-1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Dag and Red (9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dag and Red** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dag and Red** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance** at home**.

Dag and Red,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Dover Athletic |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Weymouth |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Nov |
Boreham Wood |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Dover Athletic** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dover Athletic** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance** as a guest**.

Dover Athletic,** as a guest**, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 1 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Woking |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dag and Red** and the red line for guest team, **Dover Athletic. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dag and Red |
12% |
30% |
28% |
30% |

Dover Athletic |
47% |
37% |
12% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dag and Red** to score **1.7 ** goals and **Dover Athletic** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the home team **Dag and Red ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dag and Red** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Dover Athletic** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Dag and Red ** to win by **1.01** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.10 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
1.85 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
3.53 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.72 |