Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 02 NA 021
Barnet vs Boreham Wood at 02 NA 021
Chesterfield vs Solihull at 02 NA 021
Dag and Red vs Dover Athletic at 02 NA 021
Halifax vs Hartlepool at 02 NA 021
Weymouth vs Eastleigh at 02 NA 021
Woking vs Aldershot at 02 NA 021
Yeovil vs Torquay at 02 NA 021
Stockport vs Altrincham at 02 NA 021
Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wealdstone |
2.38 |
2.44 |
-1.0 |
|
Draw |
3.59 |
3.75 |
-1.2 |
|
Maidenhead |
2.70 |
3.10 |
-4.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.02 |
-11.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
1.98 |
6.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Sutton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Nov |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Maidenhead in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Bromley |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Solihull |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wealdstone |
25% |
33% |
24% |
18% |
|
Maidenhead |
30% |
35% |
22% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.51 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.35 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.83 |
|
1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.98 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.48 |
2.93 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.33 |
4.23 |
3.00 |
|
4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.26 |
3.54 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.36 |
3.84 |
3.16 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.48 |
2.93 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.42 |
2.81 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.00 |
2.65 |
3.45 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.26 |
3.54 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.93 |
2.98 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.73 |
3.64 |
|
No Goal |
2.14 |
6.32 |
2.66 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.31 |
2.84 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.32 |
2.66 |
Go to Top
Barnet vs Boreham Wood at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Barnet and Boreham Wood for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Barnet |
3.59 |
3.60 |
-0.1 |
|
Draw |
3.49 |
3.66 |
-1.3 |
|
Boreham Wood |
1.97 |
2.23 |
-5.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.95 |
-2.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.05 |
-2.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Barnet in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance at home.
Barnet, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Dec |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Woking |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Boreham Wood in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance as a guest.
Boreham Wood, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Nov |
Bromley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Nov |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnet and the red line for guest team, Boreham Wood.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Barnet |
25% |
46% |
19% |
10% |
|
Boreham Wood |
21% |
33% |
26% |
20% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.02 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Boreham Wood to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.14 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.45 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Boreham Wood to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
19.23 |
0-1 |
4.33 |
|
1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
1.96 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
3.88 |
|
3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |
|
4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.33 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
|
Gg |
1.69 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |
|
NoG |
2.46 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.36 |
4.44 |
2.85 |
|
2-3 goals |
4.21 |
3.36 |
2.15 |
|
4+ goals |
4.37 |
3.74 |
1.98 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
4.27 |
3.48 |
2.09 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.36 |
4.44 |
2.85 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.63 |
7.42 |
1.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.55 |
2.39 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |
3.74 |
1.98 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.38 |
3.63 |
2.33 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.94 |
2.68 |
2.35 |
|
No Goal |
2.57 |
7.81 |
2.07 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.68 |
6.39 |
1.75 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
7.81 |
2.29 |
Go to Top
Chesterfield vs Solihull at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Chesterfield and Solihull for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Chesterfield |
2.47 |
2.17 |
5.6 |
|
Draw |
3.48 |
3.86 |
-2.8 |
|
Solihull |
2.62 |
3.56 |
-10.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.98 |
-4.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.02 |
-1.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Chesterfield (5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance at home.
Chesterfield, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Dec |
Barnet |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Weymouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Notts County |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Maidenhead |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Solihull in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance as a guest.
Solihull, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
15 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Bromley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chesterfield and the red line for guest team, Solihull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Chesterfield |
24% |
29% |
25% |
22% |
|
Solihull |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.34 goals and Solihull to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.44 goals and Solihull to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.88 |
|
1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.89 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.72 |
3.35 |
3.00 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.00 |
4.58 |
3.54 |
|
4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.38 |
4.43 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
4.08 |
3.81 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.35 |
3.00 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
6.64 |
3.48 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.70 |
3.64 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.38 |
4.43 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
4.06 |
3.33 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.41 |
2.84 |
4.30 |
|
No Goal |
1.97 |
6.29 |
3.01 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.39 |
3.42 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.29 |
2.86 |
Go to Top
Dag and Red vs Dover Athletic at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Dover Athletic for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Dag and Red |
1.76 |
1.52 |
9.0 |
|
Draw |
3.70 |
4.65 |
-5.5 |
|
Dover Athletic |
4.16 |
7.87 |
-11.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.00 |
-4.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.00 |
-1.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Dag and Red (9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Dag and Red in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Dover Athletic |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Weymouth |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Nov |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Nov |
Boreham Wood |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Dover Athletic in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dover Athletic in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance as a guest.
Dover Athletic, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 1 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Nov |
Woking |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Dover Athletic.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Dag and Red |
12% |
30% |
28% |
30% |
|
Dover Athletic |
47% |
37% |
12% |
5% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.7 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Dag and Red to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.75 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.74 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Dag and Red to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.10 |
|
1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
1.85 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.63 |
|
3 |
3.53 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |
|
NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.72 |