2021 01 01 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Real Madrid vs Celta at 02 NA 021
Villarreal vs Levante at 02 NA 021
Betis vs Sevilla at 02 NA 021
Getafe vs Valladolid at 02 NA 021
Eibar vs Granada at 03 NA 021
Sociedad vs Osasuna at 03 NA 021
Ath Bilbao vs Elche at 03 NA 021
Alaves vs Ath Madrid at 03 NA 021
Huesca vs Barcelona at 03 NA 021
Valencia vs Cadiz at 04 NA 021


Real Madrid vs Celta at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Celta for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Real Madrid

1.49

2.06

-18.6

Draw

4.81

3.89

4.9

Celta

6.35

3.89

10.0

Over 2.5

1.58

2.05

-14.5

Under 2.5

2.45

1.95

10.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Celta, Under 2.5 (4.9 %, 10 %, 10.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Real Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 71.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Granada

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Eibar

A

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Ath Madrid

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Alaves

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Villarreal

A

1

1

D

U

G


Celta in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance as a guest.
Celta, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Huesca

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Alaves

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Dec

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

04 Dec

Ath Bilbao

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Granada

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Sevilla

A

2

4

L

O

G

06 Nov

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Celta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Real Madrid

22%

33%

24%

22%

Celta

37%

33%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 2.26 goals and Celta to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.02 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 1.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.46 goals and Celta to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.64

1

5.15

2-3

2.07

2

4.20

4+

4.13

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.64

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.25

3.40

3.82

2-3 goals

1.94

4.48

3.84

4+ goals

2.12

3.51

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.99

4.10

3.92

Un 1.5

2.25

3.40

3.82

Ov 2.5

1.77

7.07

3.39

Un 2.5

2.43

2.71

4.54

Ov 3.5

2.12

3.51

4.10

Un 3.5

2.04

4.02

3.83

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.77

4.06

No Goal

1.74

6.30

3.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.55

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.30

3.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Villarreal vs Levante at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Villarreal and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Villarreal

1.68

2.09

-11.7

Draw

3.90

3.86

0.3

Levante

5.35

3.80

7.6

Over 2.5

1.73

2.09

-10.0

Under 2.5

2.15

1.92

5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Levante, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 7.6 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Villarreal in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance at home.
Villarreal, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Sevilla

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Elche

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Real Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Getafe

A

3

1

W

O

G


Levante in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Betis

H

4

3

W

O

G

22 Dec

Huesca

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Getafe

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Elche

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alaves

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Villarreal and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Villarreal

22%

35%

22%

22%

Levante

38%

32%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.93 goals and Levante to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Villarreal to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.43 goals and Levante to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Villarreal to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.51

1

4.95

2-3

2.09

2

4.22

4+

4.22

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.51

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.43

4.07

2-3 goals

2.03

4.32

3.63

4+ goals

2.14

3.59

3.95

Ov 1.5

2.06

4.05

3.73

Un 1.5

2.16

3.43

4.07

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.26

3.19

Un 2.5

2.42

2.69

4.66

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.59

3.95

Un 3.5

2.08

3.94

3.78

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.74

3.82

No Goal

1.73

6.22

3.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.67

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

6.22

3.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Betis vs Sevilla at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Betis

3.80

2.34

16.4

Draw

3.51

3.79

-2.1

Sevilla

2.05

3.23

-17.8

Over 2.5

2.16

1.89

6.6

Under 2.5

1.74

2.12

-10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Betis, Over 2.5 (16.4 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Betis in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance at home.
Betis, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Levante

A

3

4

L

O

G

23 Dec

Cadiz

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Granada

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

Eibar

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Nov

Ath Bilbao

A

0

4

L

O

N

07 Nov

Barcelona

A

2

5

L

O

G


Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Villarreal

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Celta

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Betis

23%

30%

28%

19%

Sevilla

25%

42%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 0.91 goals and Sevilla to score 1.42 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Sevilla to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.43 goals and Sevilla to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.35

1

5.81

2-3

2.02

2

4.13

4+

3.65

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.35

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.36

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.15

3.97

2.32

2-3 goals

2.14

3.97

3.57

4+ goals

2.25

3.38

3.86

Ov 1.5

2.18

3.74

3.67

Un 1.5

3.15

3.97

2.32

Ov 2.5

1.85

6.52

3.28

Un 2.5

3.35

2.58

3.19

Ov 3.5

2.25

3.38

3.86

Un 3.5

2.38

3.97

3.05

Goal-Goal

2.42

2.80

4.36

No Goal

2.24

7.31

2.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.89

5.57

3.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

7.31

2.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Getafe vs Valladolid at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Getafe and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Getafe

2.04

1.89

3.9

Draw

3.16

3.97

-6.5

Valladolid

4.39

4.59

-1.0

Over 2.5

2.75

2.00

13.6

Under 2.5

1.43

2.00

-19.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Getafe, Over 2.5 (3.9 %, 13.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Getafe in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance at home.
Getafe, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Dec

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Cadiz

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Sevilla

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Levante

A

0

3

L

O

N

29 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Eibar

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Nov

Villarreal

H

1

3

L

O

G


Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Cadiz

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Barcelona

H

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Osasuna

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Nov

Levante

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Granada

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Getafe and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Getafe

19%

34%

20%

27%

Valladolid

38%

37%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.22 goals and Valladolid to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and the home team Getafe to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.56 goals and Valladolid to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Getafe to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.73

1

5.08

2-3

2.07

2

4.31

4+

4.00

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.73

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.09

3.77

3.88

2-3 goals