2021 01 01 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Rochdale vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 NA 021
Mansfield vs Port Vale at 02 NA 021
AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln at 02 NA 021
Newport County vs Southend at 02 NA 021
Northampton vs Sunderland at 02 NA 021
Plymouth vs Gillingham at 02 NA 021
Shrewsbury vs Crewe at 02 NA 021
Stevenage vs Scunthorpe at 02 NA 021
Swindon vs Wigan at 02 NA 021
Walsall vs Carlisle at 02 NA 021
Leyton Orient vs Salford at 02 NA 021
Peterboro vs Doncaster at 02 NA 021
Bristol Rvs vs Blackpool at 02 NA 021
Accrington vs Portsmouth at 02 NA 021
Bolton vs Crawley Town at 02 NA 021
Bradford vs Morecambe at 02 NA 021
Hull vs Charlton at 02 NA 021
Burton vs Oxford at 02 NA 021
Colchester vs Tranmere at 02 NA 021
Forest Green vs Oldham at 02 NA 021
Grimsby vs Cambridge at 02 NA 021
Harrogate vs Cheltenham at 02 NA 021
Barrow vs Exeter at 02 NA 021
Fleetwood Town vs Ipswich at 04 NA 021


Rochdale vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

3.66

2.66

10.3

Draw

3.45

3.69

-1.9

Milton Keynes Dons

1.99

2.83

-14.9

Over 2.5

1.95

2.04

-2.3

Under 2.5

1.84

1.96

-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale (10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Blackpool

H

1

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Wigan

A

5

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Peterboro

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Plymouth

A

4

0

W

O

N

24 Nov

Northampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Oxford

A

1

3

L

O

G


Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Swindon

A

4

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Peterboro

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Charlton

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Shrewsbury

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

28%

32%

24%

16%

Milton Keynes Dons

26%

37%

25%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 0.97 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.28 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.88

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

4.07

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.07

3.63

2.50

2-3 goals

2.60

4.10

2.70

4+ goals

2.44

3.15

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.73

2.96

Un 1.5

3.07

3.63

2.50

Ov 2.5

2.13

6.29

2.70

Un 2.5

3.51

2.65

2.96

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.15

3.67

Un 3.5

2.74

3.93

2.63

Goal-Goal

2.84

2.70

3.60

No Goal

2.48

6.52

2.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

5.33

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.68

6.52

2.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mansfield vs Port Vale at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Port Vale for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mansfield

2.35

2.58

-3.8

Draw

3.29

3.68

-3.2

Port Vale

3.11

2.94

1.9

Over 2.5

2.16

2.05

2.5

Under 2.5

1.71

1.95

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Port Vale, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mansfield in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had no wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

Southend

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Carlisle

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Crawley Town

H

3

3

D

O

G

02 Dec

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Colchester

H

1

1

D

U

G


Port Vale in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance as a guest.
Port Vale, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Bradford

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Barrow

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Walsall

A

3

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Forest Green

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Colchester

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Bolton

A

6

3

W

O

G

28 Nov

Leyton Orient

H

2

3

L

O

G

24 Nov

Stevenage

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Port Vale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mansfield

27%

33%

24%

16%

Port Vale

27%

37%

24%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.27 goals and Port Vale to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.3 goals and Port Vale to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.83

1

5.32

2-3

2.02

2

3.97

4+

4.10

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.58

2.66

2-3 goals

2.51

4.07

2.82

4+ goals

2.42

3.17

3.70

Ov 1.5

2.47

3.72

3.06

Un 1.5

2.90

3.58

2.66

Ov 2.5

2.09

6.34

2.76

Un 2.5

3.31

2.63

3.15

Ov 3.5

2.42

3.17

3.70

Un 3.5

2.63

3.88

2.76

Goal-Goal

2.83

2.68

3.66

No Goal

2.33

6.40

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.35

2.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.52

6.40

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AFC Wimbledon

4.29

2.93

10.8

Draw

3.60

3.80

-1.5

Lincoln

1.84

2.53

-14.8

Over 2.5

2.01

1.97

1.0

Under 2.5

1.82

2.03

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at AFC Wimbledon, Over 2.5 (10.8 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance at home.
AFC Wimbledon, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Oxford

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Crewe

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Charlton

A

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Bristol Rvs

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Dec

Peterboro

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Gillingham

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Rochdale

A

1

0

W

U

N


Lincoln in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Burton

H

5

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Northampton

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Sunderland

H

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AFC Wimbledon and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AFC Wimbledon

31%

29%

23%

16%

Lincoln

22%

38%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 0.86 goals and Lincoln to score 1.58 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the guest team Lincoln to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.24 goals and Lincoln to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.00

1

5.49

2-3

2.05

2

4.12

4+

3.82

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.00

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.85

3.68

2.14

2-3 goals

2.79

4.40

2.42

4+ goals

2.59

3.12

3.40

Ov 1.5

2.72

3.85

2.69

Un 1.5

3.85

3.68

2.14

Ov 2.5

2.25

6.04

2.56

Un 2.5

4.25

2.75

2.49

Ov 3.5

2.59

3.12

3.40

Un 3.5

3.08

4.12

2.31

Goal-Goal

2.83

2.76

3.52

No Goal

3.06

6.79

1.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.08

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

3.29

6.79

1.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Newport County vs Southend at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Southend for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

1.54

1.80

-9.4

Draw

4.29

3.95

2.0

Southend

5.94

5.26

2.2

Over 2.5

1.84

2.15

-7.8

Under 2.5

1.99

1.87

3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southend, Under 2.5 (2 %, 2.2 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 81.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Oldham

H

2

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Grimsby

A

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Forest Green

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G


Southend in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance as a guest.
Southend, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Colchester

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Grimsby

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Bolton

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Nov

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Southend.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

13%

39%

28%

20%

Southend

40%

37%

14%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.91 goals and Southend to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 1.2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.55 goals and Southend to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.87

0-1

3.88

1

4.88

2-3

1.90

2

3.62

4+

4.67

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.88

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

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-X-

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