# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Rochdale vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 NA 021**** Mansfield vs Port Vale at 02 NA 021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln at 02 NA 021**** Newport County vs Southend at 02 NA 021**** Northampton vs Sunderland at 02 NA 021**** Plymouth vs Gillingham at 02 NA 021**** Shrewsbury vs Crewe at 02 NA 021**** Stevenage vs Scunthorpe at 02 NA 021**** Swindon vs Wigan at 02 NA 021**** Walsall vs Carlisle at 02 NA 021**** Leyton Orient vs Salford at 02 NA 021**** Peterboro vs Doncaster at 02 NA 021**** Bristol Rvs vs Blackpool at 02 NA 021**** Accrington vs Portsmouth at 02 NA 021**** Bolton vs Crawley Town at 02 NA 021**** Bradford vs Morecambe at 02 NA 021**** Hull vs Charlton at 02 NA 021**** Burton vs Oxford at 02 NA 021**** Colchester vs Tranmere at 02 NA 021**** Forest Green vs Oldham at 02 NA 021**** Grimsby vs Cambridge at 02 NA 021**** Harrogate vs Cheltenham at 02 NA 021**** Barrow vs Exeter at 02 NA 021**** Fleetwood Town vs Ipswich at 04 NA 021**

###
Rochdale vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Milton Keynes Dons** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
3.66 |
2.66 |
10.3 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.69 |
-1.9 |

Milton Keynes Dons |
1.99 |
2.83 |
-14.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.04 |
-2.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.96 |
-3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale (10.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** as a guest**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Milton Keynes Dons. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
28% |
32% |
24% |
16% |

Milton Keynes Dons |
26% |
37% |
25% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the guest team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.07 |
3.63 |
2.50 |

2-3 goals |
2.60 |
4.10 |
2.70 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.15 |
3.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.73 |
2.96 |

Un 1.5 |
3.07 |
3.63 |
2.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.29 |
2.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.51 |
2.65 |
2.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.15 |
3.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.74 |
3.93 |
2.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.70 |
3.60 |

No Goal |
2.48 |
6.52 |
2.26 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.33 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
6.52 |
2.26 |

####
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###
Mansfield vs Port Vale at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mansfield** and **Port Vale** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mansfield |
2.35 |
2.58 |
-3.8 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.68 |
-3.2 |

Port Vale |
3.11 |
2.94 |
1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.05 |
2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.95 |
-7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Port Vale, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** at home**.

Mansfield,** at home**, had no wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Port Vale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Port Vale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance** as a guest**.

Port Vale,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Bolton |
A |
6 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mansfield** and the red line for guest team, **Port Vale. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mansfield |
27% |
33% |
24% |
16% |

Port Vale |
27% |
37% |
24% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Port Vale** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Port Vale** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.10 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.58 |
2.66 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
4.07 |
2.82 |

4+ goals |
2.42 |
3.17 |
3.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.72 |
3.06 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.58 |
2.66 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.34 |
2.76 |

Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
2.63 |
3.15 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.17 |
3.70 |

Un 3.5 |
2.63 |
3.88 |
2.76 |

Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.68 |
3.66 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.35 |
2.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
6.40 |
2.40 |

####
Go to Top

###
AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **AFC Wimbledon** and **Lincoln** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

AFC Wimbledon |
4.29 |
2.93 |
10.8 |

Draw |
3.60 |
3.80 |
-1.5 |

Lincoln |
1.84 |
2.53 |
-14.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.97 |
1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.03 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **AFC Wimbledon, Over 2.5 (10.8 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**AFC Wimbledon** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AFC Wimbledon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance** at home**.

AFC Wimbledon,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** as a guest**.

Lincoln,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Burton |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **AFC Wimbledon** and the red line for guest team, **Lincoln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

AFC Wimbledon |
31% |
29% |
23% |
16% |

Lincoln |
22% |
38% |
26% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **AFC Wimbledon** to score **0.86 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.58 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the guest team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.82 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.82 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.85 |
3.68 |
2.14 |

2-3 goals |
2.79 |
4.40 |
2.42 |

4+ goals |
2.59 |
3.12 |
3.40 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.85 |
2.69 |

Un 1.5 |
3.85 |
3.68 |
2.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.04 |
2.56 |

Un 2.5 |
4.25 |
2.75 |
2.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.12 |
3.40 |

Un 3.5 |
3.08 |
4.12 |
2.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.76 |
3.52 |

No Goal |
3.06 |
6.79 |
1.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.08 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.29 |
6.79 |
1.93 |

####
Go to Top

###
Newport County vs Southend at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Southend** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
1.54 |
1.80 |
-9.4 |

Draw |
4.29 |
3.95 |
2.0 |

Southend |
5.94 |
5.26 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.15 |
-7.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.87 |
3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Southend, Under 2.5 (2 %, 2.2 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 81.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** as a guest**.

Southend,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Southend. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
13% |
39% |
28% |
20% |

Southend |
40% |
37% |
14% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.91 ** goals and **Southend** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **1.2** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Southend** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.64** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.87 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
1.90 |

2 |
3.62 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |