Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Everton vs West Ham at 01 NA 021
Man United vs Aston Villa at 01 NA 021
Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United at 02 NA 021
West Brom vs Arsenal at 02 NA 021
Tottenham vs Leeds at 02 NA 021
Brighton vs Wolves at 02 NA 021
Newcastle vs Leicester at 03 NA 021
Chelsea vs Man City at 03 NA 021
Burnley vs Fulham at 03 NA 021
Southampton vs Liverpool at 04 NA 021
Everton vs West Ham at 01 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and West Ham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 01 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Everton |
2.16 |
2.46 |
-5.6 |
|
Draw |
3.48 |
3.76 |
-2.1 |
|
West Ham |
3.54 |
3.06 |
4.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.99 |
-0.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.01 |
-3.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham (4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Everton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
West Ham in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance as a guest.
West Ham, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Nov |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Nov |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, West Ham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Everton |
26% |
36% |
15% |
24% |
|
West Ham |
30% |
35% |
21% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.46 goals and West Ham to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.36 goals and West Ham to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.62 |
|
1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.19 |
|
2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
3.73 |
|
3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
29.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.54 |
3.07 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.71 |
3.68 |
2.78 |
|
4+ goals |
2.05 |
4.12 |
3.72 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.83 |
3.07 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.54 |
3.07 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
7.72 |
2.74 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.47 |
3.48 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
4.12 |
3.72 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.62 |
2.88 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.74 |
3.55 |
|
No Goal |
2.15 |
6.18 |
2.68 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.06 |
2.70 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
6.18 |
2.62 |
Go to Top
Man United vs Aston Villa at 01 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Man United and Aston Villa for Premier League (England), which will take place on 01 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Man United |
1.79 |
3.75 |
-29.2 |
|
Draw |
4.15 |
4.00 |
0.9 |
|
Aston Villa |
4.34 |
2.07 |
25.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.92 |
-11.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.09 |
6.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 25.3 %, 6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Man United in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance at home.
Man United, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Aston Villa in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance as a guest.
Aston Villa, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
17 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Aston Villa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Man United |
36% |
28% |
25% |
10% |
|
Aston Villa |
21% |
31% |
25% |
23% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 1.98 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.09 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.51 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the guest team Aston Villa to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.07 |
|
1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.75 |
|
3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |
|
5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.75 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.17 |
3.28 |
2.20 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.19 |
5.55 |
1.98 |
|
4+ goals |
4.77 |
3.07 |
2.15 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.61 |
4.31 |
2.04 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |
3.28 |
2.20 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.35 |
6.00 |
1.87 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.28 |
2.94 |
2.35 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.77 |
3.07 |
2.15 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.46 |
4.50 |
2.04 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.75 |
2.89 |
2.58 |
|
No Goal |
3.72 |
6.60 |
1.72 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.10 |
4.80 |
2.13 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.49 |
6.60 |
1.92 |
Go to Top
Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Sheffield United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Crystal Palace |
2.04 |
1.90 |
3.6 |
|
Draw |
3.46 |
3.92 |
-3.4 |
|
Sheffield United |
3.87 |
4.57 |
-4.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.02 |
5.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.98 |
-9.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Crystal Palace, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Crystal Palace in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Nov |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Sheffield United in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield United, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Dec |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Nov |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Crystal Palace |
18% |
36% |
19% |
27% |
|
Sheffield United |
38% |
36% |
17% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.37 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Crystal Palace to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.55 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Crystal Palace to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.69 |
|
1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
4.07 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.69 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.96 |
3.99 |
4.17 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.98 |
3.65 |
4.55 |
|
4+ goals |
1.71 |
4.47 |
5.23 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
3.89 |
4.76 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.99 |
4.17 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
8.98 |
4.02 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.52 |
5.32 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.71 |
4.47 |
5.23 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.97 |
3.77 |
4.40 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.72 |
4.70 |
|
No Goal |
1.57 |
7.22 |
4.46 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.84 |
3.48 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.78 |
7.22 |
3.93 |
Go to Top
West Brom vs Arsenal at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between West Brom and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
West Brom |
5.79 |
4.07 |
7.3 |
|
Draw |
4.02 |
4.20 |
-1.1 |
|
Arsenal |
1.63 |
1.94 |
-9.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.82 |
-0.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.22 |
-4.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at West Brom (7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
West Brom in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance at home.
West Brom, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Man City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Arsenal in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance as a guest.
Arsenal, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Everton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Nov |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Brom and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
West Brom |
39% |
19% |
37% |
5% |
|
Arsenal |
18% |
30% |
27% |
26% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Brom to score 0.76 goals and Arsenal to score 1.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Brom to score 1.07 goals and Arsenal to score 1.6 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.48 |
|
1 |
6.54 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.58 |
|
3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.48 |
|
5 |
9.43 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.58 |
|
NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |