# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Everton vs West Ham at 01 NA 021**** Man United vs Aston Villa at 01 NA 021**** Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United at 02 NA 021**** West Brom vs Arsenal at 02 NA 021**** Tottenham vs Leeds at 02 NA 021**** Brighton vs Wolves at 02 NA 021**** Newcastle vs Leicester at 03 NA 021**** Chelsea vs Man City at 03 NA 021**** Burnley vs Fulham at 03 NA 021**** Southampton vs Liverpool at 04 NA 021**

###
Everton vs West Ham at 01 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Everton** and **West Ham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **01 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Everton |
2.16 |
2.46 |
-5.6 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.76 |
-2.1 |

West Ham |
3.54 |
3.06 |
4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.99 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.01 |
-3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Ham (4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** at home**.

Everton,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** as a guest**.

West Ham,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Everton** and the red line for guest team, **West Ham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Everton |
26% |
36% |
15% |
24% |

West Ham |
30% |
35% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.46 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Everton ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.36 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
3.73 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
29.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.54 |
3.07 |

2-3 goals |
2.71 |
3.68 |
2.78 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
4.12 |
3.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.83 |
3.07 |

Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.54 |
3.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
7.72 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.47 |
3.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
4.12 |
3.72 |

Un 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.62 |
2.88 |

Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.74 |
3.55 |

No Goal |
2.15 |
6.18 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.06 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
6.18 |
2.62 |

####
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###
Man United vs Aston Villa at 01 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man United** and **Aston Villa** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **01 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man United |
1.79 |
3.75 |
-29.2 |

Draw |
4.15 |
4.00 |
0.9 |

Aston Villa |
4.34 |
2.07 |
25.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.92 |
-11.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.09 |
6.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 25.3 %, 6.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** at home**.

Man United,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** as a guest**.

Aston Villa,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man United** and the red line for guest team, **Aston Villa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man United |
36% |
28% |
25% |
10% |

Aston Villa |
21% |
31% |
25% |
23% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man United** to score **1.98 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.01** goals in the game and the home team **Man United ** to win by **0.96** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man United** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the guest team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.75 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.75 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.17 |
3.28 |
2.20 |

2-3 goals |
3.19 |
5.55 |
1.98 |

4+ goals |
4.77 |
3.07 |
2.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.61 |
4.31 |
2.04 |

Un 1.5 |
4.17 |
3.28 |
2.20 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.35 |
6.00 |
1.87 |

Un 2.5 |
4.28 |
2.94 |
2.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.77 |
3.07 |
2.15 |

Un 3.5 |
3.46 |
4.50 |
2.04 |

Goal-Goal |
3.75 |
2.89 |
2.58 |

No Goal |
3.72 |
6.60 |
1.72 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.10 |
4.80 |
2.13 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.49 |
6.60 |
1.92 |

####
Go to Top

###
Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crystal Palace** and **Sheffield United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crystal Palace |
2.04 |
1.90 |
3.6 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.92 |
-3.4 |

Sheffield United |
3.87 |
4.57 |
-4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.02 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.98 |
-9.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crystal Palace, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** at home**.

Crystal Palace,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Nov |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield United,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Dec |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crystal Palace** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crystal Palace |
18% |
36% |
19% |
27% |

Sheffield United |
38% |
36% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Sheffield United** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and the home team **Crystal Palace ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Sheffield United** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Crystal Palace ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.69 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.69 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.96 |
3.99 |
4.17 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
3.65 |
4.55 |

4+ goals |
1.71 |
4.47 |
5.23 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
3.89 |
4.76 |

Un 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.99 |
4.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
8.98 |
4.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.52 |
5.32 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.71 |
4.47 |
5.23 |

Un 3.5 |
1.97 |
3.77 |
4.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.72 |
4.70 |

No Goal |
1.57 |
7.22 |
4.46 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.84 |
3.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.78 |
7.22 |
3.93 |

####
Go to Top

###
West Brom vs Arsenal at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Brom** and **Arsenal** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Brom |
5.79 |
4.07 |
7.3 |

Draw |
4.02 |
4.20 |
-1.1 |

Arsenal |
1.63 |
1.94 |
-9.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.82 |
-0.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.22 |
-4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Brom (7.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** at home**.

West Brom,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Man City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** as a guest**.

Arsenal,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Everton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Brom** and the red line for guest team, **Arsenal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Brom |
39% |
19% |
37% |
5% |

Arsenal |
18% |
30% |
27% |
26% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Brom** to score **0.76 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and the guest team **Arsenal ** to win by **1.13** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Brom** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.6 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and the guest team **Arsenal ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.48 |

1 |
6.54 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.58 |

3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.48 |

5 |
9.43 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.58 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |