2021 01 01 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sp Lisbon vs Sp Braga at 02 NA 021
Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave at 03 NA 021
Tondela vs Famalicao at 03 NA 021
Maritimo vs Boavista at 03 NA 021
Guimaraes vs Nacional at 03 NA 021
Santa Clara vs Benfica at 03 NA 021
Gil Vicente vs Belenenses at 04 NA 021
Porto vs Moreirense at 04 NA 021


Sp Lisbon vs Sp Braga at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Sp Braga for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Lisbon

2.09

5.78

-30.5

Draw

3.53

3.47

0.5

Sp Braga

3.38

1.86

24.2

Over 2.5

1.72

3.33

-28.1

Under 2.5

2.13

1.43

23.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sp Braga, Under 2.5 (0.5 %, 24.2 %, 23 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Belenenses

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Moreirense

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Guimaraes

A

4

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tondela

H

4

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Santa Clara

A

2

1

W

O

G


Sp Braga in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance as a guest.
Sp Braga, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Dec

Boavista

A

4

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Rio Ave

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Benfica

A

3

2

W

O

G

02 Nov

Famalicao

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Guimaraes

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Sp Braga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Lisbon

54%

36%

13%

-2%

Sp Braga

37%

11%

43%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.62 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 0.55 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.81 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.08

0-1

2.59

1

5.29

2-3

1.90

2

3.17

4+

11.11

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.62

4

11.24

Un 1.5

2.59

5

333.33

Ov 2.5

3.31

6+

-500.00

Un 2.5

1.43

Gg

3.39

Ov 3.5

11.11

NoG

1.41

Un 3.5

1.10

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

1.96

6.77

2-3 goals

9.76

13.87

1.21

4+ goals

-7.50

1.67

1.88

Ov 1.5

14.69

6.71

1.28

Un 1.5

2.92

1.96

6.77

Ov 2.5

-50.33

5.59

1.19

Un 2.5

3.89

2.98

2.45

Ov 3.5

-7.50

1.67

1.88

Un 3.5

4.91

3.89

1.86

Goal-Goal

147.50

3.21

1.47

No Goal

4.12

3.59

2.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

128.50

4.76

1.28

NG+Un 2.5

3.68

3.59

2.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

2.35

1.66

17.7

Draw

3.01

4.29

-9.9

Rio Ave

3.33

6.02

-13.4

Over 2.5

2.44

1.92

11.1

Under 2.5

1.56

2.08

-16.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (17.7 %, 11.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Farense

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Boavista

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Benfica

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Moreirense

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

Famalicao

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Oct

Porto

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Oct

Nacional

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G


Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Dec

Maritimo

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Sp Braga

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Dec

Boavista

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Nov

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Moreirense

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Farense

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Benfica

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

14%

30%

28%

28%

Rio Ave

40%

41%

11%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.19 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.7 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.18

0-1

4.33

1

5.68

2-3

1.93

2

4.03

4+

3.98

3

3.70

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.33

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.94

4.20

4.05

2-3 goals

1.55

4.21

8.49

4+ goals

1.70

4.56

5.23

Ov 1.5

1.60

4.32

7.06

Un 1.5

1.94

4.20

4.05

Ov 2.5

1.40

9.47

5.60

Un 2.5

2.10

2.69

6.56

Ov 3.5

1.70

4.56

5.23

Un 3.5

1.65

4.21

6.35

Goal-Goal

2.00

2.92

6.41

No Goal

1.41

8.75

5.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.52

7.20

4.89

NG+Un 2.5

1.56

8.75

4.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tondela vs Famalicao at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Famalicao for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tondela

2.84

2.30

8.3

Draw

3.09

3.65

-5.0

Famalicao

2.58

3.42

-9.5

Over 2.5

2.24

2.21

0.6

Under 2.5

1.64

1.82

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Over 2.5 (8.3 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tondela in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Nacional

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Porto

A

3

4

L

O

G

27 Nov

Guimaraes

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Santa Clara

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

0

4

L

O

N

23 Oct

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Gil Vicente

A

1

1

D

U

G


Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance as a guest.
Famalicao, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Gil Vicente

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Dec

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Sp Lisbon

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Nov

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Farense

A

3

3

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Famalicao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tondela

26%

34%

23%

18%

Famalicao

34%

38%

17%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.08 goals and Famalicao to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.32 goals and Famalicao to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.34

1

4.72

2-3

2.07

2

4.02

4+

4.55

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.34

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.44

3.08

2-3 goals

2.16

3.74

3.71

4+ goals

2.27

3.79

3.38

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.75

3.60

Un 1.5

2.60

3.44

3.08

Ov 2.5

1.86

7.81

2.98

Un 2.5

2.85

2.54

3.91

Ov 3.5

2.27

3.79

3.38

Un 3.5

2.31

3.62

3.44

Goal-Goal

2.69

2.63

4.03

No Goal

2.02

5.85

2.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

6.26

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

5.85

2.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maritimo vs Boavista at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maritimo and Boavista for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maritimo

2.61

2.61

0.0

Draw

3.07

3.64

-5.1

Boavista

2.83

2.92

-1.1

Over 2.5

2.28

2.36

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.62

1.73

-3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maritimo in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance at home.
Maritimo, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Dec

Rio Ave

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Belenenses

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Dec

Farense

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Benfica

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Famalicao

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Nacional

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Oct

Moreirense

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Portimonense

H

1

2

L

O

G


Boavista in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance as a guest.
Boavista, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Dec

Sp Braga

H

1

4

L

O

G

20 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Nov

Farense

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Nov

Benfica

H

3

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Oct

Guimaraes

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maritimo and the red line for guest team, Boavista.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maritimo

30%

36%

20%

14%

Boavista

37%

27%

26%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.14 goals and Boavista to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.17 goals and Boavista to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.93

0-1

3.07

1

4.67

2-3

2.08

2

3.98

4+

5.15

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.07

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47