Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Sp Lisbon vs Sp Braga at 02 NA 021
Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave at 03 NA 021
Tondela vs Famalicao at 03 NA 021
Maritimo vs Boavista at 03 NA 021
Guimaraes vs Nacional at 03 NA 021
Santa Clara vs Benfica at 03 NA 021
Gil Vicente vs Belenenses at 04 NA 021
Porto vs Moreirense at 04 NA 021
Sp Lisbon vs Sp Braga at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Sp Braga for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sp Lisbon |
2.09 |
5.78 |
-30.5 |
|
Draw |
3.53 |
3.47 |
0.5 |
|
Sp Braga |
3.38 |
1.86 |
24.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
3.33 |
-28.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
1.43 |
23.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sp Braga, Under 2.5 (0.5 %, 24.2 %, 23 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Moreirense |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Guimaraes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
28 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Santa Clara |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Sp Braga in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance as a guest.
Sp Braga, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Dec |
Boavista |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Rio Ave |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Benfica |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Nov |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Guimaraes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Sp Braga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sp Lisbon |
54% |
36% |
13% |
-2% |
|
Sp Braga |
37% |
11% |
43% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.62 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 0.55 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.81 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
5.08 |
0-1 |
2.59 |
|
1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
1.90 |
|
2 |
3.17 |
4+ |
11.11 |
|
3 |
4.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.62 |
|
4 |
11.24 |
Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
|
5 |
333.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
3.31 |
|
6+ |
-500.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.43 |
|
Gg |
3.39 |
Ov 3.5 |
11.11 |
|
NoG |
1.41 |
Un 3.5 |
1.10 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.92 |
1.96 |
6.77 |
|
2-3 goals |
9.76 |
13.87 |
1.21 |
|
4+ goals |
-7.50 |
1.67 |
1.88 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
14.69 |
6.71 |
1.28 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
1.96 |
6.77 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
-50.33 |
5.59 |
1.19 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.89 |
2.98 |
2.45 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
-7.50 |
1.67 |
1.88 |
|
Un 3.5 |
4.91 |
3.89 |
1.86 |
|
Goal-Goal |
147.50 |
3.21 |
1.47 |
|
No Goal |
4.12 |
3.59 |
2.09 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
128.50 |
4.76 |
1.28 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.68 |
3.59 |
2.32 |
Go to Top
Pacos Ferreira vs Rio Ave at 03 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Pacos Ferreira |
2.35 |
1.66 |
17.7 |
|
Draw |
3.01 |
4.29 |
-9.9 |
|
Rio Ave |
3.33 |
6.02 |
-13.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.44 |
1.92 |
11.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.08 |
-16.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (17.7 %, 11.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Oct |
Porto |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
18 Oct |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Nov |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Moreirense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Farense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Oct |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Pacos Ferreira |
14% |
30% |
28% |
28% |
|
Rio Ave |
40% |
41% |
11% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.19 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.7 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
18.18 |
0-1 |
4.33 |
|
1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
1.93 |
|
2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
3.98 |
|
3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |
|
4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.33 |
|
5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.94 |
4.20 |
4.05 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.55 |
4.21 |
8.49 |
|
4+ goals |
1.70 |
4.56 |
5.23 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.60 |
4.32 |
7.06 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.94 |
4.20 |
4.05 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.40 |
9.47 |
5.60 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.69 |
6.56 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.70 |
4.56 |
5.23 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.65 |
4.21 |
6.35 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.00 |
2.92 |
6.41 |
|
No Goal |
1.41 |
8.75 |
5.66 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.52 |
7.20 |
4.89 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.56 |
8.75 |
4.88 |
Go to Top
Tondela vs Famalicao at 03 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Famalicao for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Tondela |
2.84 |
2.30 |
8.3 |
|
Draw |
3.09 |
3.65 |
-5.0 |
|
Famalicao |
2.58 |
3.42 |
-9.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.21 |
0.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.82 |
-6.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Over 2.5 (8.3 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Tondela in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Porto |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Oct |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance as a guest.
Famalicao, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
18 Oct |
Farense |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Famalicao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Tondela |
26% |
34% |
23% |
18% |
|
Famalicao |
34% |
38% |
17% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.08 goals and Famalicao to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.32 goals and Famalicao to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.34 |
|
1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.55 |
|
3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |
|
NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.44 |
3.08 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.16 |
3.74 |
3.71 |
|
4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.79 |
3.38 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.75 |
3.60 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.44 |
3.08 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.81 |
2.98 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.54 |
3.91 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.79 |
3.38 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.62 |
3.44 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.69 |
2.63 |
4.03 |
|
No Goal |
2.02 |
5.85 |
2.99 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.26 |
2.98 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.85 |
2.99 |
Go to Top
Maritimo vs Boavista at 03 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Maritimo and Boavista for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Maritimo |
2.61 |
2.61 |
0.0 |
|
Draw |
3.07 |
3.64 |
-5.1 |
|
Boavista |
2.83 |
2.92 |
-1.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.36 |
-1.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.73 |
-3.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Maritimo in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance at home.
Maritimo, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Dec |
Rio Ave |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Nov |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Nacional |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Boavista in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance as a guest.
Boavista, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Dec |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Farense |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Nov |
Benfica |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Oct |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maritimo and the red line for guest team, Boavista.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Maritimo |
30% |
36% |
20% |
14% |
|
Boavista |
37% |
27% |
26% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.14 goals and Boavista to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.17 goals and Boavista to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.93 |
0-1 |
3.07 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
5.15 |
|
3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |
|
4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.07 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
|
Gg |
2.27 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |
|
NoG |
1.79 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.47 |