# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Cartagena vs Zaragoza at 02 NA 021**** Logrones vs Mirandes at 02 NA 021**** Vallecano vs Alcorcon at 02 NA 021**** Fuenlabrada vs Leganes at 02 NA 021**** Oviedo vs Mallorca at 03 NA 021**** Las Palmas vs Espanol at 03 NA 021**** Castellon vs Tenerife at 03 NA 021**** Almeria vs Ponferradina at 03 NA 021**** Albacete vs Malaga at 03 NA 021**** Lugo vs Sp Gijon at 04 NA 021**** Girona vs Sabadell at 04 NA 021**

###
Cartagena vs Zaragoza at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cartagena** and **Zaragoza** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cartagena |
2.69 |
1.94 |
14.4 |

Draw |
2.84 |
3.85 |
-9.2 |

Zaragoza |
3.07 |
4.48 |
-10.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.16 |
8.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.86 |
-11.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cartagena, Over 2.5 (14.4 %, 8.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cartagena** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cartagena** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance** at home**.

Cartagena,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Vallecano |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Nov |
Mallorca |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Mirandes |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Zaragoza** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Zaragoza** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance** as a guest**.

Zaragoza,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 3.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Nov |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cartagena** and the red line for guest team, **Zaragoza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cartagena |
19% |
34% |
27% |
20% |

Zaragoza |
39% |
36% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cartagena** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Zaragoza** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.05** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cartagena** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Zaragoza** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Cartagena ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.08 |
3.74 |
3.96 |

2-3 goals |
1.85 |
4.12 |
4.60 |

4+ goals |
1.97 |
3.44 |
4.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.89 |
3.89 |
4.70 |

Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.74 |
3.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.45 |
3.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.72 |
5.13 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
3.44 |
4.95 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.98 |
4.35 |

Goal-Goal |
2.43 |
2.66 |
4.71 |

No Goal |
1.62 |
6.84 |
4.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.98 |
3.53 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.84 |
3.95 |

####
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###
Logrones vs Mirandes at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Logrones** and **Mirandes** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Logrones |
2.67 |
2.40 |
4.2 |

Draw |
2.91 |
3.51 |
-5.9 |

Mirandes |
2.87 |
3.34 |
-4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.44 |
2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.69 |
-8.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Logrones, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Logrones** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Logrones** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance** at home**.

Logrones,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Espanol |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Tenerife |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Mirandes** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mirandes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance** as a guest**.

Mirandes,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Dec |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Nov |
Las Palmas |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Logrones** and the red line for guest team, **Mirandes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Logrones |
27% |
35% |
24% |
13% |

Mirandes |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Logrones** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Mirandes** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.02** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Logrones** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Mirandes** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.42 |
0-1 |
3.12 |

1 |
4.44 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.46 |

3 |
4.41 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.46 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.59 |
3.34 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
2.26 |
3.82 |
3.37 |

4+ goals |
2.54 |
3.10 |
3.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.59 |
3.41 |

Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.34 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.95 |
2.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.61 |
3.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.10 |
3.52 |

Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.62 |
3.29 |

Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.49 |
3.89 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
5.51 |
2.96 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
5.78 |
2.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.51 |
2.97 |

####
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###
Vallecano vs Alcorcon at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vallecano** and **Alcorcon** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vallecano |
1.85 |
1.85 |
0.0 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.95 |
-5.9 |

Alcorcon |
4.78 |
4.88 |
-0.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.50 |
2.14 |
6.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.88 |
-11.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vallecano** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Vallecano scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vallecano** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance** at home**.

Vallecano,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 81.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Vallecano scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Leganes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Alcorcon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Alcorcon** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance** as a guest**.

Alcorcon,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Las Palmas |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Almeria |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Nov |
Girona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vallecano** and the red line for guest team, **Alcorcon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vallecano |
18% |
34% |
27% |
22% |

Alcorcon |
40% |
36% |
17% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vallecano** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Alcorcon** to score **0.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.09** goals in the game and the home team **Vallecano ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vallecano** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Alcorcon** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Vallecano ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.98 |
3.79 |
4.33 |

2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.23 |
5.12 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
3.58 |
5.24 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.02 |
5.16 |

Un 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.79 |
4.33 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.80 |
4.22 |

Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.76 |
5.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.58 |
5.24 |

Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
4.07 |
4.82 |

Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.70 |
4.94 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
7.10 |
4.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.13 |
3.72 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
7.10 |
4.42 |

####
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###
Fuenlabrada vs Leganes at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fuenlabrada** and **Leganes** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fuenlabrada |
3.00 |
2.36 |
9.0 |

Draw |
2.83 |
3.53 |
-7.0 |

Leganes |
2.66 |
3.41 |
-8.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.42 |
6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.71 |
-12.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (9 %, 6.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fuenlabrada** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fuenlabrada** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance** at home**.

Fuenlabrada,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Mallorca |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Malaga |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Leganes** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leganes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance** as a guest**.

Leganes,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fuenlabrada** and the red line for guest team, **Leganes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fuenlabrada |
27% |
35% |
24% |
13% |

Leganes |
35% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fuenlabrada** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Leganes** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.91** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fuenlabrada** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Leganes** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.14 |

1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.41 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.87 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |