Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Cartagena vs Zaragoza at 02 NA 021
Logrones vs Mirandes at 02 NA 021
Vallecano vs Alcorcon at 02 NA 021
Fuenlabrada vs Leganes at 02 NA 021
Oviedo vs Mallorca at 03 NA 021
Las Palmas vs Espanol at 03 NA 021
Castellon vs Tenerife at 03 NA 021
Almeria vs Ponferradina at 03 NA 021
Albacete vs Malaga at 03 NA 021
Lugo vs Sp Gijon at 04 NA 021
Girona vs Sabadell at 04 NA 021
Cartagena vs Zaragoza at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Cartagena and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cartagena |
2.69 |
1.94 |
14.4 |
|
Draw |
2.84 |
3.85 |
-9.2 |
|
Zaragoza |
3.07 |
4.48 |
-10.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.16 |
8.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.86 |
-11.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Cartagena, Over 2.5 (14.4 %, 8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cartagena in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance at home.
Cartagena, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Dec |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Vallecano |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
25 Nov |
Mallorca |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Mirandes |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Zaragoza in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance as a guest.
Zaragoza, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 3.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Nov |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Zaragoza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cartagena |
19% |
34% |
27% |
20% |
|
Zaragoza |
39% |
36% |
18% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.07 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.47 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Cartagena to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.61 |
|
1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.96 |
|
2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.69 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |
|
5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.08 |
3.74 |
3.96 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.85 |
4.12 |
4.60 |
|
4+ goals |
1.97 |
3.44 |
4.95 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.89 |
3.89 |
4.70 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.74 |
3.96 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.45 |
3.88 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.72 |
5.13 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
3.44 |
4.95 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.98 |
4.35 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.43 |
2.66 |
4.71 |
|
No Goal |
1.62 |
6.84 |
4.25 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.98 |
3.53 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.84 |
3.95 |
Go to Top
Logrones vs Mirandes at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Logrones and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Logrones |
2.67 |
2.40 |
4.2 |
|
Draw |
2.91 |
3.51 |
-5.9 |
|
Mirandes |
2.87 |
3.34 |
-4.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.44 |
2.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.69 |
-8.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Logrones, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Logrones in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance at home.
Logrones, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Espanol |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
26 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Nov |
Tenerife |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Mirandes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance as a guest.
Mirandes, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Dec |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
25 Nov |
Las Palmas |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Logrones and the red line for guest team, Mirandes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Logrones |
27% |
35% |
24% |
13% |
|
Mirandes |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Logrones to score 1.04 goals and Mirandes to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Logrones to score 1.23 goals and Mirandes to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.42 |
0-1 |
3.12 |
|
1 |
4.44 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.46 |
|
3 |
4.41 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |
|
5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |
|
6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |
|
Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.46 |
|
NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.59 |
3.34 |
3.18 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.26 |
3.82 |
3.37 |
|
4+ goals |
2.54 |
3.10 |
3.52 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.59 |
3.41 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.34 |
3.18 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.95 |
2.83 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.61 |
3.81 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.10 |
3.52 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.62 |
3.29 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.49 |
3.89 |
|
No Goal |
2.08 |
5.51 |
2.96 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
5.78 |
2.82 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.51 |
2.97 |
Go to Top
Vallecano vs Alcorcon at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Vallecano and Alcorcon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Vallecano |
1.85 |
1.85 |
0.0 |
|
Draw |
3.20 |
3.95 |
-5.9 |
|
Alcorcon |
4.78 |
4.88 |
-0.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.50 |
2.14 |
6.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.88 |
-11.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Vallecano in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance at home.
Vallecano, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 81.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Leganes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
25 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Alcorcon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance as a guest.
Alcorcon, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Dec |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Las Palmas |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Almeria |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Girona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Nov |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vallecano and the red line for guest team, Alcorcon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Vallecano |
18% |
34% |
27% |
22% |
|
Alcorcon |
40% |
36% |
17% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.37 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.52 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.66 |
|
1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.65 |
|
3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |
|
5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
|
Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |
|
NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.98 |
3.79 |
4.33 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.23 |
5.12 |
|
4+ goals |
1.89 |
3.58 |
5.24 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.02 |
5.16 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.79 |
4.33 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.80 |
4.22 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.76 |
5.72 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.58 |
5.24 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
4.07 |
4.82 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.70 |
4.94 |
|
No Goal |
1.53 |
7.10 |
4.87 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.13 |
3.72 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
7.10 |
4.42 |
Go to Top
Fuenlabrada vs Leganes at 02 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Leganes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Fuenlabrada |
3.00 |
2.36 |
9.0 |
|
Draw |
2.83 |
3.53 |
-7.0 |
|
Leganes |
2.66 |
3.41 |
-8.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.42 |
6.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.71 |
-12.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (9 %, 6.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance at home.
Fuenlabrada, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Dec |
Mallorca |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Malaga |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
25 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Leganes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leganes in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance as a guest.
Leganes, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leganes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Nov |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Leganes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Fuenlabrada |
27% |
35% |
24% |
13% |
|
Leganes |
35% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 0.91 goals and Leganes to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.24 goals and Leganes to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.14 |
|
1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.41 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
7.87 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
|
6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
|
Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |
|
NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |