2021 01 01 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Juventus vs Udinese at 03 NA 021
Atalanta vs Sassuolo at 03 NA 021
Spezia vs Verona at 03 NA 021
Roma vs Sampdoria at 03 NA 021
Parma vs Torino at 03 NA 021
Inter vs Crotone at 03 NA 021
Genoa vs Lazio at 03 NA 021
Fiorentina vs Bologna at 03 NA 021
Benevento vs Milan at 03 NA 021
Cagliari vs Napoli at 03 NA 021


Juventus vs Udinese at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Udinese for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.46

2.01

-18.7

Draw

4.69

3.91

4.3

Udinese

7.34

4.05

11.1

Over 2.5

1.73

2.20

-12.3

Under 2.5

2.13

1.83

7.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Udinese, Under 2.5 (4.3 %, 11.1 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Fiorentina

H

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Parma

A

4

0

W

O

N

16 Dec

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Genoa

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Torino

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Benevento

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Cagliari

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Lazio

A

1

1

D

U

G


Udinese in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance as a guest.
Udinese, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Benevento

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Dec

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Crotone

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Torino

A

3

2

W

O

G

29 Nov

Lazio

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Genoa

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Sassuolo

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

23%

33%

24%

20%

Udinese

43%

26%

25%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.11 goals and Udinese to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 1.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.42 goals and Udinese to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.33

1

4.95

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

4.81

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.58

Un 1.5

3.33

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.08

3.06

5.17

2-3 goals

1.94

5.76

3.22

4+ goals

2.08

2.89

5.78

Ov 1.5

1.98

4.45

3.71

Un 1.5

2.08

3.06

5.17

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.28

3.42

Un 2.5

2.19

2.98

4.79

Ov 3.5

2.08

2.89

5.78

Un 3.5

1.99

4.32

3.76

Goal-Goal

2.70

2.78

3.70

No Goal

1.67

5.72

4.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

4.89

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

1.85

5.72

4.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atalanta vs Sassuolo at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atalanta and Sassuolo for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atalanta

1.59

2.69

-25.7

Draw

4.52

3.45

6.9

Sassuolo

5.42

2.95

15.4

Over 2.5

1.46

2.01

-18.7

Under 2.5

2.65

1.99

12.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sassuolo, Under 2.5 (6.9 %, 15.4 %, 12.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atalanta in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance at home.
Atalanta, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Bologna

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Roma

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Juventus

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Fiorentina

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Verona

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Spezia

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Nov

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G


Sassuolo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance as a guest.
Sassuolo, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Sampdoria

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Benevento

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Roma

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Inter

H

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Verona

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Udinese

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atalanta and the red line for guest team, Sassuolo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atalanta

34%

12%

43%

11%

Sassuolo

35%

19%

30%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atalanta to score 2.31 goals and Sassuolo to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.23 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atalanta to score 1.32 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.40

0-1

4.44

1

9.43

2-3

2.05

2

3.60

4+

3.47

3

4.78

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.44

5

10.00

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

2.33

Ov 3.5

3.47

NoG

1.75

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.36

1.89

3.52

2-3 goals

1.77

21.17

2.58

4+ goals

5.33

1.95

3.35

Ov 1.5

2.36

4.53

2.82

Un 1.5

5.36

1.89

3.52

Ov 2.5

2.84

3.36

2.86

Un 2.5

2.57

3.54

3.05

Ov 3.5

5.33

1.95

3.35

Un 3.5

2.25

5.01

2.81

Goal-Goal

3.15

2.51

3.52

No Goal

2.43

4.80

2.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.99

2.74

3.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.45

4.80

2.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Verona at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Verona for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

3.15

2.83

3.6

Draw

3.43

3.68

-2.0

Verona

2.37

2.67

-4.7

Over 2.5

1.95

2.05

-2.5

Under 2.5

1.94

1.95

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia (3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Genoa

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Dec

Inter

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Bologna

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Crotone

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Lazio

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Cagliari

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Atalanta

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N


Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance as a guest.
Verona, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Sampdoria

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Lazio

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Atalanta

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Sassuolo

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Milan

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Verona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

33%

23%

32%

12%

Verona

34%

22%

29%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.14 goals and Verona to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.22 goals and Verona to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

3.85

1

6.67

2-3

2.07

2

3.95

4+

3.86

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.85

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.29

2.36

3.66

2-3 goals

2.24

9.45

2.23

4+ goals

4.39

2.33

2.91

Ov 1.5

2.70

4.57

2.43

Un 1.5

3.29

2.36

3.66

Ov 2.5

2.92

4.40

2.32

Un 2.5

2.76

3.19

3.09

Ov 3.5

4.39

2.33

2.91

Un 3.5

2.52

4.61

2.59

Goal-Goal

3.49

2.76

2.85

No Goal

2.46

5.04

2.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.09

3.57

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

2.48

5.04

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Roma vs Sampdoria at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Roma and Sampdoria for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Roma

1.49

2.05

-18.3

Draw

4.83

3.22

10.4

Sampdoria

6.28

4.98

4.2

Over 2.5

1.42

2.34

-27.7

Under 2.5

2.77

1.75

21.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sampdoria, Under 2.5 (10.4 %, 4.2 %, 21 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Roma in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Roma in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance at home.
Roma, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Cagliari

H

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Atalanta

A

1

4

L

O

G

17 Dec

Torino

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Bologna

A

5

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Sassuolo

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Napoli

A

0

4

L

O

N

22 Nov

Parma

H

3

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Genoa

A

3

1

W

O

G


Sampdoria in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance as a guest.
Sampdoria, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Sassuolo

H

2

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Crotone

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Napoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Bologna

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Cagliari

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Roma and the red line for guest team, Sampdoria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Roma

27%

12%

45%

16%

Sampdoria

54%

7%

32%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Roma to score 2.48 goals and Sampdoria to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.32 goals in the game and the home team Roma to win by 1.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Roma to score 1.49 goals and Sampdoria to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Roma to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.71

0-1

4.29

1

11.90

2-3

1.95

2

2.95

4+

3.94

3

5.71

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.29

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

3.01

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

1.49

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.