2021 01 01 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lecce vs Monza at 04 NA 021
Venezia vs Pisa at 04 NA 021
Salernitana vs Pordenone at 04 NA 021
Reggiana vs Pescara at 04 NA 021
Cosenza vs Empoli at 04 NA 021
Brescia vs Vicenza at 04 NA 021
Ascoli vs Reggina at 04 NA 021
Cremonese vs Chievo at 04 NA 021


Lecce vs Monza at 04 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lecce and Monza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 04 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lecce

2.45

2.59

-2.2

Draw

3.30

3.56

-2.2

Monza

2.78

3.00

-2.6

Over 2.5

1.84

2.22

-9.3

Under 2.5

1.97

1.82

4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lecce in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance at home.
Lecce, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Cittadella

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Spal

A

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Pisa

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Salernitana

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Frosinone

H

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Venezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Nov

Chievo

A

2

1

W

O

G


Monza in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance as a guest.
Monza, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Salernitana

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Dec

Cremonese

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Ascoli

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Pescara

A

2

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

5

0

W

O

N

11 Dec

Venezia

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Reggiana

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Dec

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Monza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lecce

26%

36%

26%

12%

Monza

30%

38%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.36 goals and Monza to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.24 goals and Monza to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.53

1

4.88

2-3

1.98

2

3.75

4+

4.72

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.53

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.63

2.89

2-3 goals

2.40

3.72

3.18

4+ goals

3.12

3.12

2.79

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.52

3.06

Un 1.5

2.64

3.63

2.89

Ov 2.5

2.24

6.63

2.48

Un 2.5

2.97

2.57

3.64

Ov 3.5

3.12

3.12

2.79

Un 3.5

2.48

3.69

3.07

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.55

3.47

No Goal

2.19

6.15

2.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

5.66

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.15

2.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Venezia vs Pisa at 04 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Pisa for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 04 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

1.98

2.18

-4.6

Draw

3.23

3.79

-4.6

Pisa

3.96

3.58

2.7

Over 2.5

2.09

2.11

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.75

1.90

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pisa (2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Salernitana

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Dec

Cosenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Spal

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Dec

Reggina

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

Monza

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G


Pisa in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance as a guest.
Pisa, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Chievo

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Lecce

A

3

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Pordenone

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Spal

A

0

4

L

O

N

28 Nov

Cittadella

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Pisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

22%

33%

28%

16%

Pisa

36%

33%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.46 goals and Pisa to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.39 goals and Pisa to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.68

1

5.21

2-3

2.02

2

3.94

4+

4.35

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.68

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.29

3.40

3.73

2-3 goals

1.96

4.59

3.67

4+ goals

2.71

3.07

3.29

Ov 1.5

2.15

3.97

3.54

Un 1.5

2.29

3.40

3.73

Ov 2.5

2.00

6.29

2.93

Un 2.5

2.38

2.80

4.50

Ov 3.5

2.71

3.07

3.29

Un 3.5

2.06

4.09

3.69

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.72

3.65

No Goal

1.80

6.26

3.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

5.19

2.86

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

6.26

3.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Salernitana vs Pordenone at 04 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 04 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salernitana

2.46

2.40

1.0

Draw

3.23

3.39

-1.5

Pordenone

2.89

3.46

-5.7

Over 2.5

2.11

2.46

-6.7

Under 2.5

1.74

1.68

2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana, Under 2.5 (1 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salernitana in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Monza

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Dec

Venezia

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Dec

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N


Pordenone in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Reggiana

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Dec

Frosinone

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Cremonese

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Empoli

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salernitana

23%

44%

17%

15%

Pordenone

35%

38%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.24 goals and Pordenone to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.24 goals and Pordenone to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.11

1

4.13

2-3

2.04

2

3.69

4+

5.35

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

7.75

Un 1.5

3.11

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

5.35

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.09

4.03

3.66

2-3 goals

2.77

2.90

3.40

4+ goals

2.20

4.16

3.28

Ov 1.5

2.58

3.16

3.37

Un 1.5

2.09

4.03

3.66

Ov 2.5

2.01

9.02

2.55

Un 2.5

2.77

2.38

4.56

Ov 3.5

2.20

4.16

3.28

Un 3.5

2.45

3.26

3.50

Goal-Goal

3.35

2.35

3.64

No Goal

1.87

6.21

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

7.40

2.41

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

6.21

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reggiana vs Pescara at 04 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Pescara for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 04 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reggiana

2.39

2.13

5.1

Draw

3.14

3.77

-5.3

Pescara

3.21

3.76

-4.6

Over 2.5

2.13

2.16

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.75

1.87

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana (5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reggiana in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance at home.
Reggiana, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Pordenone

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Dec

Reggina

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Dec

Empoli

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Monza

H

3

0

W

O

N

29 Nov

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G


Pescara in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance as a guest.
Pescara, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Cosenza

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Dec

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Monza

H

3

2

W

O

G

15 Dec

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

3

L

O

G

04 Dec

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggiana and the red line for guest team, Pescara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reggiana

22%

32%

29%

16%

Pescara

36%

35%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.29 goals and Pescara to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.39 goals and Pescara to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Reggiana to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.64

1

5.13

2-3

1.98

2

3.85

4+

4.52

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.64

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.44

3.53

2-3 goals