2021 01 01 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Larisa vs PAOK at 03 NA 021
Panetolikos vs OFI Crete at 03 NA 021
Olympiakos vs AEK at 03 NA 021
Giannina vs Apollon at 03 NA 021
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis at 03 NA 021
Volos NFC vs Atromitos at 04 NA 021
Lamia vs Aris at 04 NA 021


Larisa vs PAOK at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and PAOK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Larisa

7.97

3.23

18.4

Draw

4.29

3.31

6.9

PAOK

1.42

2.58

-31.7

Over 2.5

2.05

2.91

-14.4

Under 2.5

1.80

1.52

10.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Larisa, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.4 %, 6.9 %, 10.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Olympiakos

A

1

5

L

O

G

12 Dec

OFI Crete

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Aris

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Nov

AEK

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Nov

Giannina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G


PAOK in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance as a guest.
PAOK, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Panathinaikos

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Lamia

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Apollon

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Panetolikos

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, PAOK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Larisa

43%

32%

19%

7%

PAOK

38%

33%

14%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 0.55 goals and PAOK to score 1.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the guest team PAOK to win by 1.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 0.9 goals and PAOK to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.25

0-1

2.38

1

3.83

2-3

2.31

2

4.24

4+

6.80

3

5.08

Ov 1.5

1.72

4

10.20

Un 1.5

2.38

5

26.32

Ov 2.5

2.91

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.52

Gg

2.79

Ov 3.5

6.80

NoG

1.56

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.57

2.63

2.94

2-3 goals

2.74

4.08

2.56

4+ goals

4.32

3.97

1.93

Ov 1.5

3.02

4.06

2.37

Un 1.5

3.57

2.63

2.94

Ov 2.5

2.82

9.30

1.86

Un 2.5

3.49

2.47

3.24

Ov 3.5

4.32

3.97

1.93

Un 3.5

3.09

3.21

2.74

Goal-Goal

3.74

2.51

2.99

No Goal

3.00

4.01

2.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.64

6.84

2.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.93

4.01

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Panetolikos vs OFI Crete at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panetolikos and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panetolikos

2.92

2.82

1.2

Draw

3.03

3.30

-2.7

OFI Crete

2.57

2.93

-4.8

Over 2.5

2.42

2.92

-7.1

Under 2.5

1.57

1.52

2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Panetolikos, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panetolikos in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance at home.
Panetolikos, at home, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Apollon

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Dec

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Dec

Larisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Giannina

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

26 Oct

Atromitos

A

0

2

L

U

N


OFI Crete in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance as a guest.
OFI Crete, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Aris

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Apollon

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Nov

Volos NFC

A

4

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Olympiakos

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AEK

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panetolikos and the red line for guest team, OFI Crete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panetolikos

37%

36%

18%

10%

OFI Crete

39%

34%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.02 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.01 goals and OFI Crete to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.09

0-1

2.49

1

3.85

2-3

2.20

2

3.91

4+

6.99

3

5.05

Ov 1.5

1.68

4

10.10

Un 1.5

2.49

5

28.57

Ov 2.5

2.93

6+

111.11

Un 2.5

1.52

Gg

2.58

Ov 3.5

6.99

NoG

1.64

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

2.84

3.29

2-3 goals

2.73

3.82

2.69

4+ goals

2.86

3.40

2.80

Ov 1.5

2.76

3.71

2.71

Un 1.5

2.91

2.84

3.29

Ov 2.5

2.32

8.12

2.24

Un 2.5

3.17

2.53

3.46

Ov 3.5

2.86

3.40

2.80

Un 3.5

2.81

3.29

2.94

Goal-Goal

3.53

2.41

3.32

No Goal

2.50

4.33

2.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.45

6.40

2.30

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

4.33

2.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Olympiakos vs AEK at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olympiakos and AEK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Olympiakos

1.55

2.26

-20.3

Draw

4.00

3.55

3.2

AEK

6.01

3.64

10.8

Over 2.5

2.16

2.40

-4.6

Under 2.5

1.71

1.71

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, AEK (3.2 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance at home.
Olympiakos, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 21 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Larisa

H

5

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Lamia

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Volos NFC

H

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Aris

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N


AEK in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance as a guest.
AEK, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Dec

Volos NFC

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Olympiakos

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Apollon

A

4

3

W

O

G

06 Dec

Panathinaikos

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Larisa

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Olympiakos and the red line for guest team, AEK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Olympiakos

21%

44%

19%

15%

AEK

36%

33%

28%

2%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Olympiakos to score 1.68 goals and AEK to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Olympiakos to win by 1.04 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Olympiakos to score 1.28 goals and AEK to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Olympiakos to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.26

1

4.33

2-3

1.89

2

3.60

4+

5.95

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

8.62

Un 1.5

3.26

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

250.00

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

5.95

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.92

4.04

4.32

2-3 goals

2.78

3.57

2.78

4+ goals

1.79

2.85

11.20

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.36

3.40

Un 1.5

1.92

4.04

4.32

Ov 2.5

1.95

7.08

2.88

Un 2.5

2.54

2.61

4.47

Ov 3.5

1.79

2.85

11.20

Un 3.5

2.39

3.73

3.20

Goal-Goal

3.18

2.44

3.61

No Goal

1.74

6.54

3.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

6.07

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

6.54

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Giannina vs Apollon at 03 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Giannina and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 03 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Giannina

1.99

1.97

0.5

Draw

3.14

3.61

-4.1

Apollon

3.95

4.63

-3.7

Over 2.5

2.50

2.82

-4.5

Under 2.5

1.52

1.55

-1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Giannina (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Giannina in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance at home.
Giannina, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Dec

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Panathinaikos

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Lamia

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

OFI Crete

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

PAOK

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Panetolikos

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Nov

Larisa

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Atromitos

A

2

0

W

U

N


Apollon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

AEK

H

3

4

L

O

G

06 Dec

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

Volos NFC

H

3

3

D

O

G

25 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Atromitos

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Giannina and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Giannina

21%

41%

26%

11%

Apollon

46%

33%

13%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.28 goals and Apollon to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Giannina to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.28 goals and Apollon to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the home team Giannina to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

2.79

1

3.82

2-3

2.01

2

3.47

4+

6.90

3

4.78

Ov 1.5

1.56

4

9.71

Un 1.5

2.79

5

29.41

Ov 2.5

2.82

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.55

Gg

2.36

Ov 3.5

6.90

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.87

3.70

5.13