2021 01 02 Greek Basket League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Iraklis vs Larissa BC at 02 January 2021
AEK Athens vs Kolossos Rhodes at 02 January 2021
Peristeri vs PAOK at 03 January 2021
GS Lavrio vs Panathinaikos at 03 January 2021
Ionikos Nikaias vs Aris at 03 January 2021
Mesologgi BC vs Promitheas at 03 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Iraklis vs Larissa BC at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Iraklis and Larissa BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Iraklis	1.29	1.38
Larissa BC	3.65	3.63
Iraklis HC	-7.5	-6.50
Larissa BC HC	+7.5	6.50
Point Line	158.5	148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	A	Panathinaikos	L	74	106	4	5	L 3	86	95
Dec 19	H	Lavrio B.C.	L	60	77	4	4	L 2	62	76
Dec 12	H	AEK Athens	L	72	79	4	3	L 1	77	75
Dec 5	A	Messolonghi	W	71	68	4	2	W 1	70	74
Nov 22	H	Peristeri	L	71	75	3	2	L 1	72	79
Nov 18	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	66	65	3	1	W 2	67	66
Nov 14	A	Ionikos Nikaias	W	77	67	2	1	W 1	73	67
Nov 10	A	Aris	L	75	81	1	1	L 1	70	81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Messolonghi	W	84	58	2	6	W 1	83	63
Dec 19	A	Peristeri	L	78	82	1	6	L 3	79	86
Dec 16	H	Aris	L	84	88	1	5	L 2	78	88
Dec 12	H	Ionikos Nikaias	L	76	97	1	4	L 1	72	97
Dec 9	A	P.A.O.K.	W	93	91	1	3	W 1	87	88
Dec 5	A	Kolossos Rodou	L	64	90	0	3	L 2	65	91
Oct 31	A	AEK Athens	L	68	87	0	2	L 1	73	83
Oct 25	A	Panathinaikos	L	60	69	0	1	L 0	70	62

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Iraklis (in the first graph) and by Larissa BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Iraklis will expected to score 77 points and the Larissa BC 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Iraklis	Larissa BC
FG%	0.52	0.54
ASS	14.70	14.00
DRB	24.90	21.50
AST-TO	1.03	0.84
TRB	32.00	31.30
FTM	14.00	13.00
BL	2.20	1.40
FTA	19.10	17.90
PF-Fewer	21.70	21.80
ST	5.40	7.60
TO-Fewer	14.30	16.60
Ftper	0.73	0.73
ORBper	0.29	0.46
ORB	7.10	9.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

Go to Top

AEK Athens vs Kolossos Rhodes at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Kolossos Rhodes for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
AEK Athens	1.15	1.5
Kolossos Rhodes	5.4	3.0
AEK Athens HC	-10.5	-5.0
Kolossos Rhodes HC	+10.5	5.0
Point Line	154.5	148.0

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	70	78	7	1	L 1	72	77
Dec 20	H	Aris	W	84	67	7	0	W 6	78	67
Dec 12	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	79	72	6	0	W 5	80	77
Dec 5	H	P.A.O.K.	W	85	84	5	0	W 4	79	81
Nov 21	A	Messolonghi	W	87	66	4	0	W 3	86	72
Nov 7	A	Peristeri	W	66	62	3	0	W 2	67	65
Oct 31	H	Larisa	W	87	68	2	0	W 1	79	68
Oct 24	A	Ionikos Nikaias	W	81	68	1	0	W 0	77	68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 26	A	Aris	W	84	74	3	6	W 1	78	74
Dec 19	H	P.A.O.K.	L	84	85	2	6	L 2	78	82
Dec 13	A	Promitheas Patras	L	67	69	2	5	L 1	66	68
Dec 5	H	Larisa	W	90	64	2	4	W 1	82	64
Nov 22	A	Panathinaikos	L	67	90	1	4	L 2	78	81
Nov 18	A	Iraklis B.C.	L	65	66	1	3	L 1	66	70
Nov 14	H	Lavrio B.C.	W	77	62	1	2	W 1	79	61
Oct 31	H	Messolonghi	L	66	77	0	2	L 1	66	83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by Kolossos Rhodes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 75 points and the Kolossos Rhodes 73 points. The total points line estimated to be at 148.5 points.

Var	AEK Athens	Kolossos Rhodes
FG%	0.53	0.53
ASS	16.80	16.00
DRB	23.00	24.80
AST-TO	1.40	1.17
TRB	31.60	31.60
FTM	16.90	14.60
BL	3.00	1.30
FTA	23.30	20.70
PF-Fewer	24.50	22.70
ST	4.90	5.80
TO-Fewer	12.00	13.70
Ftper	0.73	0.70
ORBper	0.37	0.27
ORB	8.60	6.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

Go to Top

Peristeri vs PAOK at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and PAOK for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Peristeri	1.24	1.63
PAOK	4.15	2.60
Peristeri HC	-8.5	-4.00
PAOK HC	+8.5	4.00
Point Line	150.5	150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 26	A	Promitheas Patras	L	58	75	5	4	L 1	57	74
Dec 19	H	Larisa	W	82	78	5	3	W 1	74	78
Dec 13	A	Panathinaikos	L	57	76	4	3	L 2	66	68
Dec 5	H	Lavrio B.C.	L	70	78	4	2	L 1	72	77
Nov 22	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	75	71	4	1	W 2	76	76
Nov 15	H	Messolonghi	W	84	72	3	1	W 1	83	78
Nov 7	H	AEK Athens	L	62	66	2	1	L 1	66	63
Oct 31	A	Ionikos Nikaias	W	80	75	2	0	W 1	76	75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Ionikos Nikaias	W	86	84	4	5	W 3	82	84
Dec 19	A	Kolossos Rodou	W	85	84	3	5	W 2	86	85
Dec 13	H	Aris	W	75	64	2	5	W 1	70	64
Dec 9	H	Larisa	L	91	93	1	5	L 3	83	94
Dec 5	A	AEK Athens	L	84	85	1	4	L 2	90	81
Nov 21	A	Promitheas Patras	L	80	83	1	3	L 1	79	82
Nov 18	H	Lavrio B.C.	W	83	65	1	2	W 1	85	64
Nov 8	A	Panathinaikos	L	67	96	0	2	L 1	78	86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Peristeri (in the first graph) and by PAOK in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Peristeri will expected to score 76 points and the PAOK 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Var	Peristeri	PAOK
FG%	0.47	0.54
ASS	14.60	15.40
DRB	25.00	21.60
AST-TO	1.09	1.11
TRB	33.10	29.20
FTM	17.40	14.30
BL	2.60	2.00
FTA	22.70	19.30
PF-Fewer	20.30	23.80
ST	5.40	9.10
TO-Fewer	13.40	13.90
Ftper	0.77	0.74
ORBper	0.32	0.36
ORB	8.10	7.70

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

Go to Top

GS Lavrio vs Panathinaikos at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between GS Lavrio and Panathinaikos for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
GS Lavrio	9	7.16
Panathinaikos	1.06	1.16
GS Lavrio HC	+16.5	10.00
Panathinaikos HC	-16.5	-10.00
Point Line	157.5	150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	AEK Athens	W	78	70	5	3	W 5	83	67
Dec 19	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	77	60	4	3	W 4	78	64
Dec 12	H	Messolonghi	W	87	70	3	3	W 3	86	76
Dec 9	H	Aris	W	92	71	2	3	W 2	85	71
Dec 5	A	Peristeri	W	78	70	1	3	W 1	79	74
Nov 22	H	Ionikos Nikaias	L	81	91	0	3	L 2	77	91
Nov 18	A	P.A.O.K.	L	65	83	0	2	L 1	61	80
Nov 14	A	Kolossos Rodou	L	62	77	0	1	L 0	63	78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Iraklis B.C.	W	106	74	7	0	W 6	107	79
Dec 20	A	Messolonghi	W	73	66	6	0	W 5	72	72
Dec 13	H	Peristeri	W	76	57	5	0	W 4	77	60
Dec 6	A	Ionikos Nikaias	W	79	53	4	0	W 3	75	53
Nov 22	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	90	67	3	0	W 2	92	68
Nov 8	H	P.A.O.K.	W	96	67	2	0	W 1	90	65
Oct 25	H	Larisa	W	69	60	1	0	W 0	63	60

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by GS Lavrio (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, GS Lavrio will expected to score 72 points and the Panathinaikos 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 150.5 points.

Var	GS Lavrio	Panathinaikos
FG%	0.54	0.57
ASS	15.40	19.40
DRB	21.30	26.30
AST-TO	1.22	1.28
TRB	29.50	34.90
FTM	13.50	16.10
BL	2.90	2.90
FTA	19.80	20.00
PF-Fewer	22.90	20.00
ST	7.10	8.90
TO-Fewer	12.60	15.10
Ftper	0.68	0.81
ORBper	0.39	0.33
ORB	8.30	8.60

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

Go to Top

Ionikos Nikaias vs Aris at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ionikos Nikaias and Aris for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Ionikos Nikaias	1.28	2.01
Aris	3.7	1.99
Ionikos Nikaias HC	-7.5	1.00
Aris HC	+7.5	-1.00
Point Line	151.5	154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	A	P.A.O.K.	L	84	86	3	6	L 1	78	83
Dec 19	H	Promitheas Patras	W	86	77	3	5	W 2	85	76
Dec 12	A	Larisa	W	97	76	2	5	W 1	88	76
Dec 6	H	Panathinaikos	L	53	79	1	5	L 1	62	71
Nov 22	A	Lavrio B.C.	W	91	81	1	4	W 1	93