2021 01 02 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Iraklis vs Larissa BC at 02 January 2021
AEK Athens vs Kolossos Rhodes at 02 January 2021
Peristeri vs PAOK at 03 January 2021
GS Lavrio vs Panathinaikos at 03 January 2021
Ionikos Nikaias vs Aris at 03 January 2021
Mesologgi BC vs Promitheas at 03 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Iraklis vs Larissa BC at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Iraklis and Larissa BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Iraklis

1.29

1.38

Larissa BC

3.65

3.63

Iraklis HC

-7.5

-6.50

Larissa BC HC

+7.5

6.50

Point Line

158.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

106

4

5

L 3

86

95

Dec 19

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

60

77

4

4

L 2

62

76

Dec 12

H

AEK Athens

L

72

79

4

3

L 1

77

75

Dec 5

A

Messolonghi

W

71

68

4

2

W 1

70

74

Nov 22

H

Peristeri

L

71

75

3

2

L 1

72

79

Nov 18

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

66

65

3

1

W 2

67

66

Nov 14

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

77

67

2

1

W 1

73

67

Nov 10

A

Aris

L

75

81

1

1

L 1

70

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Messolonghi

W

84

58

2

6

W 1

83

63

Dec 19

A

Peristeri

L

78

82

1

6

L 3

79

86

Dec 16

H

Aris

L

84

88

1

5

L 2

78

88

Dec 12

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

76

97

1

4

L 1

72

97

Dec 9

A

P.A.O.K.

W

93

91

1

3

W 1

87

88

Dec 5

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

64

90

0

3

L 2

65

91

Oct 31

A

AEK Athens

L

68

87

0

2

L 1

73

83

Oct 25

A

Panathinaikos

L

60

69

0

1

L 0

70

62

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Iraklis (in the first graph) and by Larissa BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Iraklis will expected to score 77 points and the Larissa BC 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Iraklis

Larissa BC

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

14.70

14.00

DRB

24.90

21.50

AST-TO

1.03

0.84

TRB

32.00

31.30

FTM

14.00

13.00

BL

2.20

1.40

FTA

19.10

17.90

PF-Fewer

21.70

21.80

ST

5.40

7.60

TO-Fewer

14.30

16.60

Ftper

0.73

0.73

ORBper

0.29

0.46

ORB

7.10

9.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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AEK Athens vs Kolossos Rhodes at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Kolossos Rhodes for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

AEK Athens

1.15

1.5

Kolossos Rhodes

5.4

3.0

AEK Athens HC

-10.5

-5.0

Kolossos Rhodes HC

+10.5

5.0

Point Line

154.5

148.0

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

7

1

L 1

72

77

Dec 20

H

Aris

W

84

67

7

0

W 6

78

67

Dec 12

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

0

W 5

80

77

Dec 5

H

P.A.O.K.

W

85

84

5

0

W 4

79

81

Nov 21

A

Messolonghi

W

87

66

4

0

W 3

86

72

Nov 7

A

Peristeri

W

66

62

3

0

W 2

67

65

Oct 31

H

Larisa

W

87

68

2

0

W 1

79

68

Oct 24

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

81

68

1

0

W 0

77

68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

A

Aris

W

84

74

3

6

W 1

78

74

Dec 19

H

P.A.O.K.

L

84

85

2

6

L 2

78

82

Dec 13

A

Promitheas Patras

L

67

69

2

5

L 1

66

68

Dec 5

H

Larisa

W

90

64

2

4

W 1

82

64

Nov 22

A

Panathinaikos

L

67

90

1

4

L 2

78

81

Nov 18

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

65

66

1

3

L 1

66

70

Nov 14

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

77

62

1

2

W 1

79

61

Oct 31

H

Messolonghi

L

66

77

0

2

L 1

66

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by Kolossos Rhodes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 75 points and the Kolossos Rhodes 73 points. The total points line estimated to be at 148.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

AEK Athens

Kolossos Rhodes

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

16.80

16.00

DRB

23.00

24.80

AST-TO

1.40

1.17

TRB

31.60

31.60

FTM

16.90

14.60

BL

3.00

1.30

FTA

23.30

20.70

PF-Fewer

24.50

22.70

ST

4.90

5.80

TO-Fewer

12.00

13.70

Ftper

0.73

0.70

ORBper

0.37

0.27

ORB

8.60

6.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Peristeri vs PAOK at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and PAOK for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Peristeri

1.24

1.63

PAOK

4.15

2.60

Peristeri HC

-8.5

-4.00

PAOK HC

+8.5

4.00

Point Line

150.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

A

Promitheas Patras

L

58

75

5

4

L 1

57

74

Dec 19

H

Larisa

W

82

78

5

3

W 1

74

78

Dec 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

57

76

4

3

L 2

66

68

Dec 5

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

4

2

L 1

72

77

Nov 22

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

75

71

4

1

W 2

76

76

Nov 15

H

Messolonghi

W

84

72

3

1

W 1

83

78

Nov 7

H

AEK Athens

L

62

66

2

1

L 1

66

63

Oct 31

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

80

75

2

0

W 1

76

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

84

4

5

W 3

82

84

Dec 19

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

85

84

3

5

W 2

86

85

Dec 13

H

Aris

W

75

64

2

5

W 1

70

64

Dec 9

H

Larisa

L

91

93

1

5

L 3

83

94

Dec 5

A

AEK Athens

L

84

85

1

4

L 2

90

81

Nov 21

A

Promitheas Patras

L

80

83

1

3

L 1

79

82

Nov 18

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

83

65

1

2

W 1

85

64

Nov 8

A

Panathinaikos

L

67

96

0

2

L 1

78

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Peristeri (in the first graph) and by PAOK in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Peristeri will expected to score 76 points and the PAOK 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Peristeri

PAOK

FG%

0.47

0.54

ASS

14.60

15.40

DRB

25.00

21.60

AST-TO

1.09

1.11

TRB

33.10

29.20

FTM

17.40

14.30

BL

2.60

2.00

FTA

22.70

19.30

PF-Fewer

20.30

23.80

ST

5.40

9.10

TO-Fewer

13.40

13.90

Ftper

0.77

0.74

ORBper

0.32

0.36

ORB

8.10

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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GS Lavrio vs Panathinaikos at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between GS Lavrio and Panathinaikos for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

GS Lavrio

9

7.16

Panathinaikos

1.06

1.16

GS Lavrio HC

+16.5

10.00

Panathinaikos HC

-16.5

-10.00

Point Line

157.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

AEK Athens

W

78

70

5

3

W 5

83

67

Dec 19

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

77

60

4

3

W 4

78

64

Dec 12

H

Messolonghi

W

87

70

3

3

W 3

86

76

Dec 9

H

Aris

W

92

71

2

3

W 2

85

71

Dec 5

A

Peristeri

W

78

70

1

3

W 1

79

74

Nov 22

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

81

91

0

3

L 2

77

91

Nov 18

A

P.A.O.K.

L

65

83

0

2

L 1

61

80

Nov 14

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

62

77

0

1

L 0

63

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

106

74

7

0

W 6

107

79

Dec 20

A

Messolonghi

W

73

66

6

0

W 5

72

72

Dec 13

H

Peristeri

W

76

57

5

0

W 4

77

60

Dec 6

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

79

53

4

0

W 3

75

53

Nov 22

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

90

67

3

0

W 2

92

68

Nov 8

H

P.A.O.K.

W

96

67

2

0

W 1

90

65

Oct 25

H

Larisa

W

69

60

1

0

W 0

63

60

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by GS Lavrio (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, GS Lavrio will expected to score 72 points and the Panathinaikos 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 150.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

GS Lavrio

Panathinaikos

FG%

0.54

0.57

ASS

15.40

19.40

DRB

21.30

26.30

AST-TO

1.22

1.28

TRB

29.50

34.90

FTM

13.50

16.10

BL

2.90

2.90

FTA

19.80

20.00

PF-Fewer

22.90

20.00

ST

7.10

8.90

TO-Fewer

12.60

15.10

Ftper

0.68

0.81

ORBper

0.39

0.33

ORB

8.30

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Ionikos Nikaias vs Aris at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ionikos Nikaias and Aris for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ionikos Nikaias

1.28

2.01

Aris

3.7

1.99

Ionikos Nikaias HC

-7.5

1.00

Aris HC

+7.5

-1.00

Point Line

151.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

P.A.O.K.

L

84

86

3

6

L 1

78

83

Dec 19

H

Promitheas Patras

W

86

77

3

5

W 2

85

76

Dec 12

A

Larisa

W

97

76

2

5

W 1

88

76

Dec 6

H

Panathinaikos

L

53

79

1

5

L 1

62

71

Nov 22

A

Lavrio B.C.

W

91

81

1

4

W 1

93