2021 01 02 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cantu vs Fortitudo Bologna at 02 January 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 03 January 2021
Reggiana vs Sassari at 03 January 2021
Brescia vs Vanoli Cremona at 03 January 2021
Universo Treviso vs Reyer Venezia at 03 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Cantu vs Fortitudo Bologna at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cantu and Fortitudo Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cantu

1.72

2.64

Fortitudo Bologna

2.12

1.61

Cantu HC

-2.5

4.00

Fortitudo Bologna HC

+2.5

-4.00

Point Line

157.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

78

68

5

8

W 1

82

72

Dec 20

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

92

4

8

L 1

89

95

Dec 16

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

73

67

4

7

W 1

75

72

Dec 13

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

74

3

7

L 3

75

76

Dec 9

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

101

3

6

L 2

64

98

Dec 6

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

85

3

5

L 1

72

78

Nov 22

H

Virtus Roma

W

101

85

3

4

W 1

93

92

Nov 18

A

Universo Treviso

L

82

89

2

4

L 3

73

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

76

72

4

9

W 2

81

75

Dec 20

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

85

71

3

9

W 1

81

68

Dec 16

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

69

79

2

9

L 1

73

83

Dec 12

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

70

2

8

W 1

80

70

Dec 5

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

85

99

1

8

L 6

85

102

Nov 22

H

Virtus Bologna

L

71

91

1

7

L 5

75

88

Nov 7

H

Universo Treviso

L

87

98

1

6

L 4

78

94

Nov 1

A

Enel Brindisi

L

74

100

1

5

L 3

76

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cantu and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cantu.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cantu (in the first graph) and by Fortitudo Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cantu will expected to score 80 points and the Fortitudo Bologna 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cantu

Fortitudo Bologna

FG%

0.52

0.51

ASS

16.80

16.90

DRB

25.90

23.60

AST-TO

1.29

1.39

TRB

33.20

32.20

FTM

13.20

13.50

BL

3.20

3.60

FTA

18.20

19.40

PF-Fewer

17.40

18.80

ST

5.40

8.70

TO-Fewer

13.00

12.20

Ftper

0.72

0.69

ORBper

0.28

0.36

ORB

7.20

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olimpia Milano vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Victoria Libertas Pesaro for Serie A, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.1

1.13

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

7

8.60

Olimpia Milano HC

-13.5

-10.50

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

+13.5

10.50

Point Line

159.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

Virtus Bologna

W

73

68

12

1

W 2

77

66

Dec 20

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

102

86

11

1

W 1

96

77

Dec 13

H

Enel Brindisi

L

82

88

10

1

L 1

84

81

Dec 6

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

96

70

10

0

W 9

90

71

Nov 22

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

86

72

9

0

W 8

92

75

Nov 15

A

Red October Cantu

W

89

71

8

0

W 7

89

74

Nov 8

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

87

56

7

0

W 6

87

58

Nov 1

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

82

75

6

0

W 5

84

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 30

A

Virtus Bologna

L

80

100

7

6

L 1

84

96

Dec 27

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

84

74

7

5

W 2

87

80

Dec 19

A

Enel Brindisi

W

92

81

6

5

W 1

94

75

Dec 12

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

70

78

5

5

L 2

68

80

Dec 6

A

Universo Treviso

L

81

91

5

4

L 1

72

88

Nov 22

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

84

63

5

3

W 4

88

66

Nov 8

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

78

4

3

W 3

79

79

Nov 1

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

83

3

3

W 2

90

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Victoria Libertas Pesaro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 84 points and the Victoria Libertas Pesaro 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

FG%

0.57

0.53

ASS

18.80

14.60

DRB

26.50

24.30

AST-TO

1.96

1.30

TRB

34.90

34.30

FTM

14.70

12.90

BL

2.90

1.00

FTA

17.90

17.70

PF-Fewer

19.00

20.50

ST

7.00

6.30

TO-Fewer

9.60

11.20

Ftper

0.82

0.73

ORBper

0.32

0.41

ORB

8.40

10.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Reggiana vs Sassari at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Sassari for Serie A, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reggiana

2.35

2.46

Sassari

1.6

1.68

Reggiana HC

+3.5

3.50

Sassari HC

-3.5

-3.50

Point Line

165.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

H

Red October Cantu

L

68

78

6

5

L 1

68

82

Dec 16

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

79

69

6

4

W 2

77

70

Dec 13

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

89

76

5

4

W 1

83

77

Dec 6

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

56

85

4

4

L 1

53

82

Dec 3

H

Universo Treviso

W

98

74

4

3

W 1

87

71

Nov 22

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

63

84

3

3

L 1

64

84

Oct 24

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

83

67

3

2

W 2

83

69

Oct 18

A

Virtus Bologna

W

77

67

2

2

W 1

81

65

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

100

87

8

5

W 2

100

90

Dec 23

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

75

7

5

W 1

90

72

Dec 20

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

86

102

6

5

L 1

97

93

Dec 13

H

Universo Treviso

W

97

93

6

4

W 2

86

90

Dec 6

A

Virtus Bologna

W

83

78

5

4

W 1

88

75

Nov 15

H

Enel Brindisi

L

87

100

4

4

L 2

89

92

Nov 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

78

92

4

3

L 1

80

95

Nov 1

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

104

82

4

2

W 1

97

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reggiana (in the first graph) and by Sassari in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reggiana will expected to score 82 points and the Sassari 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reggiana

Sassari

FG%

0.49

0.58

ASS

14.80

19.10

DRB

25.20

24.90

AST-TO

1.10

1.32

TRB

35.00

32.60

FTM

16.40

17.90

BL

2.50

2.20

FTA

21.00

22.60

PF-Fewer

20.40

19.40

ST

6.40

7.70

TO-Fewer

13.40

14.50

Ftper

0.78

0.79

ORBper

0.39

0.31

ORB

9.80

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brescia vs Vanoli Cremona at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Vanoli Cremona for Serie A, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brescia

1.27

3.27

Vanoli Cremona

3.75

1.44

Brescia HC

-6.5

5.50

Vanoli Cremona HC

+6.5

-5.50

Point Line

162.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

87

100

5

8

L 1

82

89

Dec 20

A

Red October Cantu

W

92

89

5

7

W 3

92

93

Dec 13

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

71

69

4

7

W 2

76

72

Dec 5

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

99

85

3

7

W 1

96

87

Nov 22

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

74

2

7

L 5

72

68

Nov 15

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

80

2

6

L 4

75

82

Nov 8

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

56

87

2

5

L 3

63

79

Oct 31

H

Virtus Roma

L

64

70

2

4

L 2

59

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Enel Brindisi

W

96

94

5

7

W 1

98

87

Dec 23

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

75

95

4

7

L 3

70

85

Dec 20

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

71

85

4

6

L 2

69

87

Dec 16

A

Universo Treviso

L

90

101

4

5

L 1

80

97

Dec 9

H

Red October Cantu

W

101

67

4

4

W 2

101

70

Dec 6

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

56

3

4

W 1

90

59

Nov 1

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

83

95

2

4

L 2

85

94

Oct 25

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

83

85

2

3

L 1

85

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brescia (in the first graph) and by Vanoli Cremona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brescia will expected to score 81 points and the Vanoli Cremona 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brescia

Vanoli Cremona

FG%

0.51

0.51

ASS

18.20

15.60

DRB

24.90

26.80

AST-TO

1.46

1.59

TRB

32.20

35.60

FTM

10.80

14.60

BL

1.30

2.40

FTA

12.70

19.20

PF-Fewer

21.20

19.00

ST

7.70

5.20

TO-Fewer

12.50

9.80

Ftper

0.85

0.76

ORBper

0.29

0.33

ORB

7.30

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Universo Treviso vs Reyer Venezia at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Universo Treviso and Reyer Venezia for Serie A, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Universo Treviso

2.7

1.46

Reyer Venezia

1.47

3.18

Universo Treviso HC

+4.5

-5.50

Reyer Venezia HC

-4.5

5.50

Point Line

160.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Universo Treviso are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 30

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

79

84

6

7

L 1

82

91

Dec 27

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

80

79

6

6

W 1

75

80

Dec 20

H

Virtus Bologna

L

72

98

5

6

L 1

76

95

Dec 16

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

101

90

5

5

W 1

96

87