2021 01 02 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cantu vs Fortitudo Bologna at 02 January 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 03 January 2021
Reggiana vs Sassari at 03 January 2021
Brescia vs Vanoli Cremona at 03 January 2021
Universo Treviso vs Reyer Venezia at 03 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Cantu vs Fortitudo Bologna at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cantu and Fortitudo Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Cantu	1.72	2.64
Fortitudo Bologna	2.12	1.61
Cantu HC	-2.5	4.00
Fortitudo Bologna HC	+2.5	-4.00
Point Line	157.5	159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 26	A	Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia	W	78	68	5	8	W 1	82	72
Dec 20	H	Germani Basket Brescia	L	89	92	4	8	L 1	89	95
Dec 16	H	Alma Pallacanestro Trieste	W	73	67	4	7	W 1	75	72
Dec 13	A	Dolomiti Energia Trentino	L	73	74	3	7	L 3	75	76
Dec 9	A	Vanoli Cremona	L	67	101	3	6	L 2	64	98
Dec 6	A	Enel Brindisi	L	71	85	3	5	L 1	72	78
Nov 22	H	Virtus Roma	W	101	85	3	4	W 1	93	92
Nov 18	A	Universo Treviso	L	82	89	2	4	L 3	73	86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Umana Reyer Venezia	W	76	72	4	9	W 2	81	75
Dec 20	H	Vanoli Cremona	W	85	71	3	9	W 1	81	68
Dec 16	A	Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia	L	69	79	2	9	L 1	73	83
Dec 12	A	Consultinvest Pesaro	W	78	70	2	8	W 1	80	70
Dec 5	A	Germani Basket Brescia	L	85	99	1	8	L 6	85	102
Nov 22	H	Virtus Bologna	L	71	91	1	7	L 5	75	88
Nov 7	H	Universo Treviso	L	87	98	1	6	L 4	78	94
Nov 1	A	Enel Brindisi	L	74	100	1	5	L 3	76	92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cantu and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cantu.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cantu (in the first graph) and by Fortitudo Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cantu will expected to score 80 points and the Fortitudo Bologna 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Cantu	Fortitudo Bologna
FG%	0.52	0.51
ASS	16.80	16.90
DRB	25.90	23.60
AST-TO	1.29	1.39
TRB	33.20	32.20
FTM	13.20	13.50
BL	3.20	3.60
FTA	18.20	19.40
PF-Fewer	17.40	18.80
ST	5.40	8.70
TO-Fewer	13.00	12.20
Ftper	0.72	0.69
ORBper	0.28	0.36
ORB	7.20	8.60

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Olimpia Milano vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Victoria Libertas Pesaro for Serie A, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Olimpia Milano	1.1	1.13
Victoria Libertas Pesaro	7	8.60
Olimpia Milano HC	-13.5	-10.50
Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC	+13.5	10.50
Point Line	159.5	156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	A	Virtus Bologna	W	73	68	12	1	W 2	77	66
Dec 20	H	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	W	102	86	11	1	W 1	96	77
Dec 13	H	Enel Brindisi	L	82	88	10	1	L 1	84	81
Dec 6	A	Openjobmetis Varese	W	96	70	10	0	W 9	90	71
Nov 22	H	Umana Reyer Venezia	W	86	72	9	0	W 8	92	75
Nov 15	A	Red October Cantu	W	89	71	8	0	W 7	89	74
Nov 8	H	Germani Basket Brescia	W	87	56	7	0	W 6	87	58
Nov 1	H	Dolomiti Energia Trentino	W	82	75	6	0	W 5	84	77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 30	A	Virtus Bologna	L	80	100	7	6	L 1	84	96
Dec 27	H	Alma Pallacanestro Trieste	W	84	74	7	5	W 2	87	80
Dec 19	A	Enel Brindisi	W	92	81	6	5	W 1	94	75
Dec 12	H	Fortitudo Bologna	L	70	78	5	5	L 2	68	80
Dec 6	A	Universo Treviso	L	81	91	5	4	L 1	72	88
Nov 22	H	Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia	W	84	63	5	3	W 4	88	66
Nov 8	H	Openjobmetis Varese	W	85	78	4	3	W 3	79	79
Nov 1	H	Vanoli Cremona	W	95	83	3	3	W 2	90	80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Victoria Libertas Pesaro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 84 points and the Victoria Libertas Pesaro 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Var	Olimpia Milano	Victoria Libertas Pesaro
FG%	0.57	0.53
ASS	18.80	14.60
DRB	26.50	24.30
AST-TO	1.96	1.30
TRB	34.90	34.30
FTM	14.70	12.90
BL	2.90	1.00
FTA	17.90	17.70
PF-Fewer	19.00	20.50
ST	7.00	6.30
TO-Fewer	9.60	11.20
Ftper	0.82	0.73
ORBper	0.32	0.41
ORB	8.40	10.00

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Reggiana vs Sassari at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Sassari for Serie A, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Reggiana	2.35	2.46
Sassari	1.6	1.68
Reggiana HC	+3.5	3.50
Sassari HC	-3.5	-3.50
Point Line	165.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 26	H	Red October Cantu	L	68	78	6	5	L 1	68	82
Dec 16	H	Fortitudo Bologna	W	79	69	6	4	W 2	77	70
Dec 13	A	Openjobmetis Varese	W	89	76	5	4	W 1	83	77
Dec 6	H	Vanoli Cremona	L	56	85	4	4	L 1	53	82
Dec 3	H	Universo Treviso	W	98	74	4	3	W 1	87	71
Nov 22	A	Consultinvest Pesaro	L	63	84	3	3	L 1	64	84
Oct 24	H	Germani Basket Brescia	W	83	67	3	2	W 2	83	69
Oct 18	A	Virtus Bologna	W	77	67	2	2	W 1	81	65

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Germani Basket Brescia	W	100	87	8	5	W 2	100	90
Dec 23	A	Vanoli Cremona	W	95	75	7	5	W 1	90	72
Dec 20	A	EA7 Emporio Armani Milano	L	86	102	6	5	L 1	97	93
Dec 13	H	Universo Treviso	W	97	93	6	4	W 2	86	90
Dec 6	A	Virtus Bologna	W	83	78	5	4	W 1	88	75
Nov 15	H	Enel Brindisi	L	87	100	4	4	L 2	89	92
Nov 7	A	Dolomiti Energia Trentino	L	78	92	4	3	L 1	80	95
Nov 1	H	Openjobmetis Varese	W	104	82	4	2	W 1	97	83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reggiana (in the first graph) and by Sassari in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reggiana will expected to score 82 points and the Sassari 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Var	Reggiana	Sassari
FG%	0.49	0.58
ASS	14.80	19.10
DRB	25.20	24.90
AST-TO	1.10	1.32
TRB	35.00	32.60
FTM	16.40	17.90
BL	2.50	2.20
FTA	21.00	22.60
PF-Fewer	20.40	19.40
ST	6.40	7.70
TO-Fewer	13.40	14.50
Ftper	0.78	0.79
ORBper	0.39	0.31
ORB	9.80	7.70

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Brescia vs Vanoli Cremona at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Vanoli Cremona for Serie A, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Brescia	1.27	3.27
Vanoli Cremona	3.75	1.44
Brescia HC	-6.5	5.50
Vanoli Cremona HC	+6.5	-5.50
Point Line	162.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	A	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	L	87	100	5	8	L 1	82	89
Dec 20	A	Red October Cantu	W	92	89	5	7	W 3	92	93
Dec 13	H	Umana Reyer Venezia	W	71	69	4	7	W 2	76	72
Dec 5	H	Fortitudo Bologna	W	99	85	3	7	W 1	96	87
Nov 22	A	Enel Brindisi	L	71	74	2	7	L 5	72	68
Nov 15	H	Dolomiti Energia Trentino	L	73	80	2	6	L 4	75	82
Nov 8	A	EA7 Emporio Armani Milano	L	56	87	2	5	L 3	63	79
Oct 31	H	Virtus Roma	L	64	70	2	4	L 2	59	75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Enel Brindisi	W	96	94	5	7	W 1	98	87
Dec 23	H	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	L	75	95	4	7	L 3	70	85
Dec 20	A	Fortitudo Bologna	L	71	85	4	6	L 2	69	87
Dec 16	A	Universo Treviso	L	90	101	4	5	L 1	80	97
Dec 9	H	Red October Cantu	W	101	67	4	4	W 2	101	70
Dec 6	A	Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia	W	85	56	3	4	W 1	90	59
Nov 1	A	Consultinvest Pesaro	L	83	95	2	4	L 2	85	94
Oct 25	A	Dolomiti Energia Trentino	L	83	85	2	3	L 1	85	88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brescia (in the first graph) and by Vanoli Cremona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brescia will expected to score 81 points and the Vanoli Cremona 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Var	Brescia	Vanoli Cremona
FG%	0.51	0.51
ASS	18.20	15.60
DRB	24.90	26.80
AST-TO	1.46	1.59
TRB	32.20	35.60
FTM	10.80	14.60
BL	1.30	2.40
FTA	12.70	19.20
PF-Fewer	21.20	19.00
ST	7.70	5.20
TO-Fewer	12.50	9.80
Ftper	0.85	0.76
ORBper	0.29	0.33
ORB	7.30	8.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Universo Treviso vs Reyer Venezia at 03 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Universo Treviso and Reyer Venezia for Serie A, which will take place on 03 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Universo Treviso	2.7	1.46
Reyer Venezia	1.47	3.18
Universo Treviso HC	+4.5	-5.50
Reyer Venezia HC	-4.5	5.50
Point Line	160.5	165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Universo Treviso are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 30	A	Alma Pallacanestro Trieste	L	79	84	6	7	L 1	82	91
Dec 27	A	Openjobmetis Varese	W	80	79	6	6	W 1	75	80
Dec 20	H	Virtus Bologna	L	72	98	5	6	L 1	76	95
Dec 16	H	Vanoli Cremona	W	101	90	5	5	W 1	96	87