2021 01 02 Spain’s Liga ACB

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Tenerife vs Real Madrid at 02 January 2021
Baskonia vs Andorra at 02 January 2021
Valencia vs Gran Canaria at 02 January 2021
Bilbao vs Gipuzkoa at 02 January 2021
Zaragoza vs Real Betis at 02 January 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Unicaja at 03 January 2021
Murcia vs Manresa at 03 January 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Barcelona at 03 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Tenerife vs Real Madrid at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Real Madrid for Liga ACB, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Tenerife	2.4	1.55
Real Madrid	1.57	2.82
Tenerife HC	+3.5	-4.50
Real Madrid HC	-3.5	4.50
Point Line	163.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 29	A	Movistar Estudiantes	W	90	64	14	2	W 2	87	66
Dec 27	H	MoraBanc Andorra	W	93	81	13	2	W 1	96	83
Dec 20	A	Baskonia	L	72	79	12	2	L 1	76	78
Dec 12	H	San Pablo Burgos	W	84	79	12	1	W 6	86	72
Dec 5	H	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	107	62	11	1	W 5	103	63
Nov 22	A	Valencia Basket	W	95	89	10	1	W 4	96	86
Nov 15	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	99	80	9	1	W 3	100	86
Nov 12	A	Manresa	W	88	80	8	1	W 2	87	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	82	87	14	1	L 1	89	84
Dec 13	H	Unicaja	W	91	84	14	0	W 13	91	78
Dec 6	A	San Pablo Burgos	W	74	60	13	0	W 12	76	55
Dec 2	H	Baskonia	W	92	83	12	0	W 11	96	82
Nov 22	H	Manresa	W	100	78	11	0	W 10	99	78
Nov 8	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	79	68	10	0	W 9	78	67
Nov 4	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	85	83	9	0	W 8	79	85
Nov 1	A	Valencia Basket	W	86	78	8	0	W 7	87	75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tenerife (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tenerife will expected to score 81 points and the Real Madrid 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Tenerife	Real Madrid
FG%	0.53	0.49
ASS	16.60	13.30
DRB	19.70	22.10
AST-TO	1.29	1.02
TRB	29.20	30.00
FTM	12.70	10.70
BL	2.30	1.70
FTA	17.30	13.30
PF-Fewer	21.60	19.50
ST	7.30	7.50
TO-Fewer	12.90	13.10
Ftper	0.74	0.81
ORBper	0.48	0.36
ORB	9.50	7.90

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Baskonia vs Andorra at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and Andorra for Liga ACB, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Baskonia	1.27	2.19
Andorra	3.75	1.84
Baskonia HC	-7.5	2.00
Andorra HC	+7.5	-2.00
Point Line	154.5	157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	W	92	89	12	4	W 4	83	93
Dec 20	H	Iberostar Tenerife	W	79	72	11	4	W 3	83	66
Dec 12	A	Coosur Real Betis	W	77	73	10	4	W 2	76	78
Dec 6	H	Acunsa GBC	W	83	71	9	4	W 1	78	80
Dec 2	A	Real Madrid	L	83	92	8	4	L 1	90	86
Nov 15	H	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	80	74	8	3	W 4	77	75
Nov 7	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	82	68	7	3	W 3	76	70
Nov 1	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	75	71	6	3	W 2	76	77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	81	93	7	7	L 1	85	86
Dec 20	H	Movistar Estudiantes	W	81	73	7	6	W 1	78	75
Dec 13	A	Acunsa GBC	L	82	86	6	6	L 2	77	98
Dec 11	H	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	83	98	6	5	L 1	75	102
Dec 6	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	72	55	6	4	W 3	71	59
Dec 3	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	85	76	5	4	W 2	79	78
Nov 21	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	79	62	4	4	W 1	80	67
Oct 25	A	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	71	82	3	4	L 1	77	79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Baskonia (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Baskonia will expected to score 80 points and the Andorra 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Var	Baskonia	Andorra
FG%	0.54	0.53
ASS	16.80	15.90
DRB	22.30	24.10
AST-TO	1.20	1.07
TRB	30.50	33.60
FTM	9.10	13.60
BL	2.60	3.20
FTA	13.10	18.00
PF-Fewer	19.80	21.10
ST	7.50	7.30
TO-Fewer	14.00	14.80
Ftper	0.69	0.75
ORBper	0.37	0.39
ORB	8.30	9.50

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Valencia vs Gran Canaria at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Valencia	1.24	1.47
Gran Canaria	4.15	3.13
Valencia HC	-8.5	-5.50
Gran Canaria HC	+8.5	5.50
Point Line	160.5	157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Acunsa GBC	W	101	75	9	6	W 5	95	85
Dec 20	H	UCAM Murcia	W	89	78	8	6	W 4	88	78
Dec 13	A	Movistar Estudiantes	W	86	81	7	6	W 3	83	83
Dec 5	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	68	61	6	6	W 2	67	60
Dec 1	A	FC Barcelona Lassa	W	100	90	5	6	W 1	109	87
Nov 22	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	89	95	4	6	L 3	93	88
Nov 8	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	81	99	4	5	L 2	83	91
Nov 1	H	Real Madrid	L	78	86	4	4	L 1	84	81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	A	Manresa	W	71	64	6	10	W 4	70	64
Dec 22	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	78	54	5	10	W 3	77	58
Dec 19	A	Acunsa GBC	W	79	65	4	10	W 2	75	74
Dec 13	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	87	71	3	10	W 1	86	70
Dec 6	A	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	63	91	2	10	L 3	68	88
Nov 21	H	MoraBanc Andorra	L	62	79	2	9	L 2	64	81
Nov 15	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	80	99	2	8	L 1	84	92
Nov 7	A	UCAM Murcia	W	78	74	2	7	W 1	78	74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 82 points and the Gran Canaria 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Var	Valencia	Gran Canaria
FG%	0.57	0.50
ASS	18.90	14.70
DRB	22.60	21.60
AST-TO	1.38	1.20
TRB	30.00	29.80
FTM	15.70	11.40
BL	1.30	2.80
FTA	18.80	15.90
PF-Fewer	17.10	19.20
ST	6.60	7.60
TO-Fewer	13.70	12.30
Ftper	0.83	0.72
ORBper	0.33	0.38
ORB	7.40	8.20

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Bilbao vs Gipuzkoa at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Gipuzkoa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bilbao	1.24	1.64
Gipuzkoa	4.15	2.56
Bilbao HC	-8.5	-3.50
Gipuzkoa HC	+8.5	3.50
Point Line	156.5	159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 29	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	86	96	3	13	L 2	88	88
Dec 27	H	Unicaja	L	75	91	3	12	L 1	75	85
Dec 20	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	74	70	3	11	W 1	73	69
Dec 13	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	76	105	2	11	L 3	68	110
Dec 6	H	Movistar Estudiantes	L	77	78	2	10	L 2	74	80
Dec 3	H	MoraBanc Andorra	L	76	85	2	9	L 1	79	87
Nov 22	A	Coosur Real Betis	W	96	89	2	8	W 1	95	96
Nov 15	H	UCAM Murcia	L	63	73	1	8	L 5	63	72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 29	H	Manresa	L	71	78	2	14	L 3	70	78
Dec 27	A	Valencia Basket	L	75	101	2	13	L 2	76	98
Dec 19	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	65	79	2	12	L 1	66	85
Dec 13	H	MoraBanc Andorra	W	86	82	2	11	W 1	89	84
Dec 9	A	UCAM Murcia	L	73	90	1	11	L 9	73	89
Dec 6	A	Baskonia	L	71	83	1	10	L 8	74	82
Nov 22	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	L	68	99	1	9	L 7	67	96
Nov 15	A	Unicaja	L	69	104	1	8	L 6	69	97

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Gipuzkoa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 83 points and the Gipuzkoa 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Var	Bilbao	Gipuzkoa
FG%	0.52	0.46
ASS	15.30	13.90
DRB	21.40	20.30
AST-TO	1.06	0.97
TRB	30.10	30.30
FTM	14.40	9.70
BL	2.20	2.10
FTA	18.10	14.10
PF-Fewer	21.20	20.60
ST	5.90	8.90
TO-Fewer	14.40	14.30
Ftper	0.79	0.69
ORBper	0.41	0.49
ORB	8.70	10.00

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Zaragoza vs Real Betis at 02 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Real Betis for Liga ACB, which will take place on 02 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Zaragoza	1.39	1.84
Real Betis	3	2.18
Zaragoza HC	-6.5	-2.00
Real Betis HC	+6.5	2.00
Point Line	167.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Baskonia	L	89	92	4	12	L 2	93	91
Dec 20	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	L	91	102	4	11	L 1	88	103
Dec 13	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	105	76	4	10	W 2	98	78
Dec 11	A	MoraBanc Andorra	W	98	83	3	10	W 1	101