2021 01 04 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Larissa BC vs Promitheas at 06 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Larissa BC vs Promitheas at 06 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Larissa BC and Promitheas for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Larissa BC

2.35

2.90

Promitheas

1.6

1.53

Larissa BC HC

+3.5

5.00

Promitheas HC

-3.5

-5.00

Point Line

154.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

69

73

2

7

L 1

70

78

Dec 27

H

Messolonghi

W

84

58

2

6

W 1

84

62

Dec 19

A

Peristeri

L

78

82

1

6

L 3

80

86

Dec 16

H

Aris

L

84

88

1

5

L 2

80

90

Dec 12

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

76

97

1

4

L 1

74

98

Dec 9

A

P.A.O.K.

W

93

91

1

3

W 1

87

90

Dec 5

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

64

90

0

3

L 2

64

91

Oct 31

A

AEK Athens

L

68

87

0

2

L 1

73

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Messolonghi

W

88

82

4

2

W 2

88

88

Dec 26

H

Peristeri

W

75

58

3

2

W 1

77

61

Dec 19

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

77

86

2

2

L 1

75

87

Dec 13

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

69

67

2

1

W 1

69

68

Dec 5

A

Aris

L

83

94

1

1

L 1

79

96

Nov 21

H

P.A.O.K.

W

83

80

1

0

W 0

78

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Larissa BC (in the first graph) and by Promitheas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Larissa BC will expected to score 80 points and the Promitheas 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Larissa BC

Promitheas

FG%

0.53

0.51

ASS

13.80

16.00

DRB

22.80

24.00

AST-TO

0.84

1.26

TRB

31.80

31.70

FTM

13.20

16.20

BL

1.30

4.70

FTA

18.00

24.80

PF-Fewer

22.90

18.50

ST

7.30

7.70

TO-Fewer

16.40

12.70

Ftper

0.74

0.65

ORBper

0.39

0.32

ORB

9.00

7.70


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