2021 01 04 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Joventut Badalona vs Valencia at 04 January 2021
Andorra vs Real Madrid at 04 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Joventut Badalona vs Valencia at 04 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 04 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

2.02

3.13

Valencia

1.8

1.47

Joventut Badalona HC

+1.5

5.50

Valencia HC

-1.5

-5.50

Point Line

168.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

78

95

10

6

L 1

80

87

Dec 23

H

UCAM Murcia

W

104

93

10

5

W 1

104

92

Dec 20

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

88

9

5

L 1

81

85

Dec 17

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

87

83

9

4

W 1

84

84

Dec 12

A

Manresa

L

80

85

8

4

L 1

80

85

Dec 5

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

88

81

8

3

W 3

79

84

Nov 22

A

Acunsa GBC

W

99

68

7

3

W 2

94

77

Nov 1

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

97

70

6

3

W 1

94

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

101

85

10

6

W 6

101

92

Dec 27

H

Acunsa GBC

W

101

75

9

6

W 5

96

85

Dec 20

H

UCAM Murcia

W

89

78

8

6

W 4

89

78

Dec 13

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

86

81

7

6

W 3

83

83

Dec 5

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

68

61

6

6

W 2

67

61

Dec 1

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

W

100

90

5

6

W 1

109

87

Nov 22

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

89

95

4

6

L 3

92

88

Nov 8

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

81

99

4

5

L 2

83

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 83 points and the Valencia 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Valencia

FG%

0.54

0.57

ASS

15.00

19.40

DRB

18.10

22.40

AST-TO

1.38

1.45

TRB

27.40

30.00

FTM

14.00

15.40

BL

2.20

1.50

FTA

17.80

18.40

PF-Fewer

20.80

17.10

ST

8.40

6.60

TO-Fewer

10.90

13.40

Ftper

0.79

0.84

ORBper

0.51

0.34

ORB

9.30

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Andorra vs Real Madrid at 04 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Real Madrid for Liga ACB, which will take place on 04 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

3.5

1.53

Real Madrid

1.3

2.89

Andorra HC

+7.5

-5.00

Real Madrid HC

-7.5

5.00

Point Line

158.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

A

Baskonia

L

67

84

7

8

L 2

71

83

Dec 27

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

81

93

7

7

L 1

84

86

Dec 20

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

81

73

7

6

W 1

79

75

Dec 13

A

Acunsa GBC

L

82

86

6

6

L 2

78

97

Dec 11

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

83

98

6

5

L 1

75

101

Dec 6

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

72

55

6

4

W 3

71

59

Dec 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

76

5

4

W 2

80

78

Nov 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

79

62

4

4

W 1

79

67

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

A

Iberostar Tenerife

W

92

85

15

1

W 1

96

79

Dec 27

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

82

87

14

1

L 1

90

84

Dec 13

H

Unicaja

W

91

84

14

0

W 13

90

79

Dec 6

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

74

60

13

0

W 12

76

55

Dec 2

H

Baskonia

W

92

83

12

0

W 11

98

82

Nov 22

H

Manresa

W

100

78

11

0

W 10

100

78

Nov 8

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

79

68

10

0

W 9

78

68

Nov 4

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

83

9

0

W 8

80

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Andorra (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Andorra will expected to score 77 points and the Real Madrid 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Andorra

Real Madrid

FG%

0.53

0.50

ASS

15.70

13.90

DRB

23.70

21.70

AST-TO

1.07

1.07

TRB

33.10

29.60

FTM

13.40

10.40

BL

3.00

1.60

FTA

17.90

12.90

PF-Fewer

20.90

19.60

ST

7.30

7.60

TO-Fewer

14.70

13.00

Ftper

0.75

0.81

ORBper

0.39

0.36

ORB

9.30

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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