BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Joventut Badalona vs Valencia at 04 January 2021
Andorra vs Real Madrid at 04 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Joventut Badalona vs Valencia at 04 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 04 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Joventut Badalona |
2.02 |
3.13 |
|
Valencia |
1.8 |
1.47 |
|
Joventut Badalona HC |
+1.5 |
5.50 |
|
Valencia HC |
-1.5 |
-5.50 |
|
Point Line |
168.5 |
164.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
78 |
95 |
10 |
6 |
L 1 |
80 |
87 |
|
Dec 23 |
H |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
104 |
93 |
10 |
5 |
W 1 |
104 |
92 |
|
Dec 20 |
A |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
74 |
88 |
9 |
5 |
L 1 |
81 |
85 |
|
Dec 17 |
A |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
87 |
83 |
9 |
4 |
W 1 |
84 |
84 |
|
Dec 12 |
A |
Manresa |
L |
80 |
85 |
8 |
4 |
L 1 |
80 |
85 |
|
Dec 5 |
H |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
W |
88 |
81 |
8 |
3 |
W 3 |
79 |
84 |
|
Nov 22 |
A |
Acunsa GBC |
W |
99 |
68 |
7 |
3 |
W 2 |
94 |
77 |
|
Nov 1 |
H |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
97 |
70 |
6 |
3 |
W 1 |
94 |
72 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 2 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
W |
101 |
85 |
10 |
6 |
W 6 |
101 |
92 |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
Acunsa GBC |
W |
101 |
75 |
9 |
6 |
W 5 |
96 |
85 |
|
Dec 20 |
H |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
89 |
78 |
8 |
6 |
W 4 |
89 |
78 |
|
Dec 13 |
A |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
86 |
81 |
7 |
6 |
W 3 |
83 |
83 |
|
Dec 5 |
A |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
W |
68 |
61 |
6 |
6 |
W 2 |
67 |
61 |
|
Dec 1 |
A |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
W |
100 |
90 |
5 |
6 |
W 1 |
109 |
87 |
|
Nov 22 |
H |
Iberostar Tenerife |
L |
89 |
95 |
4 |
6 |
L 3 |
92 |
88 |
|
Nov 8 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
81 |
99 |
4 |
5 |
L 2 |
83 |
91 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 83 points and the Valencia 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Joventut Badalona |
Valencia |
|
FG% |
0.54 |
0.57 |
|
ASS |
15.00 |
19.40 |
|
DRB |
18.10 |
22.40 |
|
AST-TO |
1.38 |
1.45 |
|
TRB |
27.40 |
30.00 |
|
FTM |
14.00 |
15.40 |
|
BL |
2.20 |
1.50 |
|
FTA |
17.80 |
18.40 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.80 |
17.10 |
|
ST |
8.40 |
6.60 |
|
TO-Fewer |
10.90 |
13.40 |
|
Ftper |
0.79 |
0.84 |
|
ORBper |
0.51 |
0.34 |
|
ORB |
9.30 |
7.60 |
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Andorra vs Real Madrid at 04 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Real Madrid for Liga ACB, which will take place on 04 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Andorra |
3.5 |
1.53 |
|
Real Madrid |
1.3 |
2.89 |
|
Andorra HC |
+7.5 |
-5.00 |
|
Real Madrid HC |
-7.5 |
5.00 |
|
Point Line |
158.5 |
155.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 2 |
A |
Baskonia |
L |
67 |
84 |
7 |
8 |
L 2 |
71 |
83 |
|
Dec 27 |
A |
Iberostar Tenerife |
L |
81 |
93 |
7 |
7 |
L 1 |
84 |
86 |
|
Dec 20 |
H |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
81 |
73 |
7 |
6 |
W 1 |
79 |
75 |
|
Dec 13 |
A |
Acunsa GBC |
L |
82 |
86 |
6 |
6 |
L 2 |
78 |
97 |
|
Dec 11 |
H |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
L |
83 |
98 |
6 |
5 |
L 1 |
75 |
101 |
|
Dec 6 |
H |
Coosur Real Betis |
W |
72 |
55 |
6 |
4 |
W 3 |
71 |
59 |
|
Dec 3 |
A |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
W |
85 |
76 |
5 |
4 |
W 2 |
80 |
78 |
|
Nov 21 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
W |
79 |
62 |
4 |
4 |
W 1 |
79 |
67 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 2 |
A |
Iberostar Tenerife |
W |
92 |
85 |
15 |
1 |
W 1 |
96 |
79 |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
82 |
87 |
14 |
1 |
L 1 |
90 |
84 |
|
Dec 13 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
91 |
84 |
14 |
0 |
W 13 |
90 |
79 |
|
Dec 6 |
A |
San Pablo Burgos |
W |
74 |
60 |
13 |
0 |
W 12 |
76 |
55 |
|
Dec 2 |
H |
Baskonia |
W |
92 |
83 |
12 |
0 |
W 11 |
98 |
82 |
|
Nov 22 |
H |
Manresa |
W |
100 |
78 |
11 |
0 |
W 10 |
100 |
78 |
|
Nov 8 |
H |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
W |
79 |
68 |
10 |
0 |
W 9 |
78 |
68 |
|
Nov 4 |
A |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
W |
85 |
83 |
9 |
0 |
W 8 |
80 |
85 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Andorra (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Andorra will expected to score 77 points and the Real Madrid 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Andorra |
Real Madrid |
|
FG% |
0.53 |
0.50 |
|
ASS |
15.70 |
13.90 |
|
DRB |
23.70 |
21.70 |
|
AST-TO |
1.07 |
1.07 |
|
TRB |
33.10 |
29.60 |
|
FTM |
13.40 |
10.40 |
|
BL |
3.00 |
1.60 |
|
FTA |
17.90 |
12.90 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.90 |
19.60 |
|
ST |
7.30 |
7.60 |
|
TO-Fewer |
14.70 |
13.00 |
|
Ftper |
0.75 |
0.81 |
|
ORBper |
0.39 |
0.36 |
|
ORB |
9.30 |
7.90 |
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