2021 01 04 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Alba Berlin vs Baskonia at 05 January 2021
Baskonia vs CSKA Moscow at 07 January 2021
Panathinaikos vs Zenit at 07 January 2021
Alba Berlin vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 07 January 2021
Barcelona vs Valencia at 07 January 2021
Crvena Zvezda vs Fenerbahce at 07 January 2021
Villeurbanne vs Anadolu Efes at 08 January 2021
Zalgiris vs Khimki at 08 January 2021
Real Madrid vs Olimpia Milano at 08 January 2021
Olympiacos vs Bayern Munich at 08 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Alba Berlin vs Baskonia at 05 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 05 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Alba Berlin

2.6

3.42

Baskonia

1.53

1.41

Alba Berlin HC

+4.5

6.00

Baskonia HC

-4.5

-6.00

Point Line

156.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 29

H

Zalgiris

L

71

74

6

10

L 3

72

73

Dec 22

A

Real Madrid

L

62

91

6

9

L 2

63

86

Dec 17

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

69

92

6

8

L 1

65

91

Dec 15

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

90

84

6

7

W 3

90

88

Dec 10

H

Fenerbahce

W

89

63

5

7

W 2

89

67

Dec 3

A

Valencia Basket

W

100

92

4

7

W 1

98

88

Dec 1

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

55

75

3

7

L 1

54

72

Nov 26

H

BC Khimki

W

100

80

3

6

W 1

87

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

71

70

8

8

W 2

69

67

Dec 23

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

84

79

7

8

W 1

82

76

Dec 18

A

Bayern Munich

L

66

77

6

8

L 3

68

77

Dec 15

A

Zalgiris

L

73

92

6

7

L 2

74

91

Dec 10

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

63

67

6

6

L 1

64

68

Dec 4

A

Anadolu Efes

W

77

59

6

5

W 2

78

61

Nov 26

A

Olympiacos

W

90

76

5

5

W 1

88

75

Nov 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

4

5

L 1

76

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Alba Berlin (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Alba Berlin will expected to score 76 points and the Baskonia 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Alba Berlin

Baskonia

FG%

0.51

0.54

ASS

19.80

18.90

DRB

19.30

22.10

AST-TO

1.43

1.29

TRB

28.60

32.40

FTM

10.60

13.40

BL

2.10

3.00

FTA

12.90

18.00

PF-Fewer

19.10

18.10

ST

7.30

7.90

TO-Fewer

13.80

14.60

Ftper

0.82

0.74

ORBper

0.49

0.47

ORB

9.40

10.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Baskonia vs CSKA Moscow at 07 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and CSKA Moscow for EuroLeague, which will take place on 07 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Baskonia

2.8

1.27

CSKA Moscow

1.47

4.76

Baskonia HC

+4.5

-8.00

CSKA Moscow HC

-4.5

8.00

Point Line

156.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

71

70

8

8

W 2

69

67

Dec 23

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

84

79

7

8

W 1

82

76

Dec 18

A

Bayern Munich

L

66

77

6

8

L 3

68

77

Dec 15

A

Zalgiris

L

73

92

6

7

L 2

74

91

Dec 10

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

63

67

6

6

L 1

64

68

Dec 4

A

Anadolu Efes

W

77

59

6

5

W 2

78

61

Nov 26

A

Olympiacos

W

90

76

5

5

W 1

88

75

Nov 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

4

5

L 1

76

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 30

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

91

87

14

3

W 12

89

84

Dec 22

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

87

78

13

3

W 11

87

82

Dec 18

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

83

65

12

3

W 10

90

68

Dec 15

H

Anadolu Efes

W

100

65

11

3

W 9

102

67

Dec 11

A

BC Khimki

W

96

87

10

3

W 8

83

86

Dec 3

H

Olympiacos

W

80

61

9

3

W 7

79

60

Nov 26

H

Real Madrid

W

74

73

8

3

W 6

75

69

Nov 19

A

Bayern Munich

W

89

81

7

3

W 5

92

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Baskonia (in the first graph) and by CSKA Moscow in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Baskonia will expected to score 78 points and the CSKA Moscow 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Baskonia

CSKA Moscow

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

18.90

16.70

DRB

22.10

20.30

AST-TO

1.29

1.33

TRB

32.40

29.10

FTM

13.40

13.60

BL

3.00

2.70

FTA

18.00

16.30

PF-Fewer

18.10

23.10

ST

7.90

6.20

TO-Fewer

14.60

12.60

Ftper

0.74

0.83

ORBper

0.47

0.43

ORB

10.40

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Panathinaikos vs Zenit at 07 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Zenit for EuroLeague, which will take place on 07 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

1.85

1.56

Zenit

2

2.79

Panathinaikos HC

-1.5

-4.50

Zenit HC

+1.5

4.50

Point Line

153.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 30

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

71

74

5

11

L 2

71

78

Dec 22

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

81

89

5

10

L 1

82

90

Dec 17

H

Alba Berlin

W

92

69

5

9

W 1

87

71

Dec 15

H

Real Madrid

L

93

97

4

9

L 2

94

92

Dec 11

H

Zalgiris

L

69

81

4

8

L 1

70

80

Dec 3

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

80

77

4

7

W 1

78

74

Dec 1

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

73

97

3

7

L 1

73

102

Nov 27

H

Bayern Munich

W

83

76

3

6

W 1

86

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 29

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

78

72

10

5

W 2

79

72

Dec 22

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

98

69

9

5

W 1

99

72

Dec 18

A

CSKA Moscow

L

65

83

8

5

L 1

66

77

Dec 16

H

Bayern Munich

W

79

75

8

4

W 1

82

75

Dec 10

A

Real Madrid

L

72

79

7

4

L 1

73

75

Dec 8

A

Valencia Basket

W

85

72

7

3

W 1

83

69

Dec 3

H

Fenerbahce

L

65

73

6

3

L 1

65

78

Nov 26

A

Zalgiris

W

83

75

6

2

W 3

85

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Zenit in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 76 points and the Zenit 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Zenit

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

17.40

14.60

DRB

21.80

18.70

AST-TO

1.47

1.25

TRB

30.60

25.90

FTM

12.40

12.60

BL

3.10

2.30

FTA

16.80

16.20

PF-Fewer

21.10

20.50

ST

5.80

6.60

TO-Fewer

11.80

11.70

Ftper

0.74

0.78

ORBper

0.40

0.39

ORB

8.80

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Alba Berlin vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 07 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Maccabi Tel Aviv for EuroLeague, which will take place on 07 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Alba Berlin

2.52

2.92

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.55

1.52

Alba Berlin HC

+4.5

5.00

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-4.5

-5.00

Point Line

156.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 29

H

Zalgiris

L

71

74

6

10

L 3

72

73

Dec 22

A

Real Madrid

L

62

91

6

9

L 2

63

86

Dec 17

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

69

92

6

8

L 1

65

91

Dec 15

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

90

84

6

7

W 3

90

88

Dec 10

H

Fenerbahce

W

89

63

5

7

W 2

89

67

Dec 3

A

Valencia Basket

W

100

92

4

7

W 1

98

88

Dec 1

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

55

75

3

7

L 1

54

72

Nov 26

H

BC Khimki

W

100

80

3

6

W 1

87

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 29

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

78

7

10

L 1

78

81

Dec 22

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

81

7

9

W 2

84

80

Dec 18

A

FC Barcelona

W

68

67

6

9

W 1

72

66

Dec 16

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

81

84

5

9

L 1

81

88

Dec 10

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

67

63

5

8

W 2

70

64

Dec 3

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

76

4

8

W 1

82

80

Nov 26

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

85

86

3

8

L 3

83

83

Nov 20

A

Valencia Basket

L

80

82

3

7

L 2

78

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Alba Berlin (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Tel Aviv in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Alba Berlin will expected to score 77 points and the Maccabi Tel Aviv 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Alba Berlin

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FG%

0.51

0.52

ASS

19.80

15.60

DRB

19.30

23.20

AST-TO

1.43

1.18

TRB

28.60

31.90

FTM

10.60

12.50

BL

2.10

2.50

FTA

12.90

16.30

PF-Fewer

19.10

19.40

ST

7.30

7.50

TO-Fewer

13.80

13.20

Ftper

0.82

0.77

ORBper

0.49

0.38

ORB

9.40

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Barcelona vs Valencia at 07 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Valencia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 07 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.3

3.94

Valencia

3.65

1.34

Barcelona HC

-7.5

7.00

Valencia HC

+7.5

-7.00

Point Line

156.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 30

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

90

11

6

L 3

80

90

Dec 22

A

Anadolu Efes

L

79

86

11

5

L 2

80

88

Dec 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

67

68

11

4

L 1

68

68

Dec 16

H

BC Khimki

W

87