Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Solihull vs Chesterfield at 05 /202
Stockport vs Eastleigh at 05 /202
Weymouth vs Yeovil at 05 /202
Solihull vs Chesterfield at 05 /202
In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Solihull |
2.38 |
2.12 |
5.2 |
|
Draw |
3.52 |
3.89 |
-2.7 |
|
Chesterfield |
2.69 |
3.68 |
-10.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.98 |
-3.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.02 |
-2.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Solihull (5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Solihull in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Bromley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Chesterfield in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Barnet |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Weymouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Notts County |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Maidenhead |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Solihull |
23% |
29% |
25% |
22% |
|
Chesterfield |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.35 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.46 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.91 |
|
1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.88 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.37 |
3.05 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.58 |
3.68 |
|
4+ goals |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.61 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
4.11 |
3.96 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.37 |
3.05 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.76 |
3.62 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.71 |
3.73 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.61 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
4.08 |
3.44 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.36 |
2.85 |
4.45 |
|
No Goal |
1.92 |
6.37 |
3.10 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.47 |
3.53 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.37 |
2.93 |
Go to Top
Stockport vs Eastleigh at 05 /202
In this section we will analyze the game between Stockport and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Stockport |
1.69 |
2.23 |
-14.3 |
|
Draw |
3.54 |
3.83 |
-2.1 |
|
Eastleigh |
5.11 |
3.44 |
9.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.00 |
-1.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.00 |
-4.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (9.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Stockport in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance at home.
Stockport, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Altrincham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Weymouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Eastleigh in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Yeovil |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stockport and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Stockport |
24% |
30% |
25% |
21% |
|
Eastleigh |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.71 goals and Eastleigh to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.42 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.85 |
|
1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.77 |
3.33 |
2.95 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.06 |
4.52 |
3.41 |
|
4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.36 |
4.25 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.04 |
3.66 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.33 |
2.95 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.59 |
3.34 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.69 |
3.56 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.36 |
4.25 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
4.02 |
3.23 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.46 |
2.81 |
4.19 |
|
No Goal |
2.03 |
6.21 |
2.90 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.37 |
3.32 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.21 |
2.79 |
Go to Top
Weymouth vs Yeovil at 05 /202
In this section we will analyze the game between Weymouth and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 05 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Weymouth |
3.75 |
2.77 |
9.4 |
|
Draw |
3.68 |
3.69 |
-0.1 |
|
Yeovil |
1.85 |
2.72 |
-17.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.04 |
-7.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.96 |
2.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Weymouth, Under 2.5 (9.4 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Weymouth in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance at home.
Weymouth, at home, had one win, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Wealdstone |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Chesterfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Yeovil in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Woking |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Weymouth and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Weymouth |
27% |
36% |
23% |
15% |
|
Yeovil |
27% |
34% |
24% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.01 goals and Yeovil to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team Yeovil to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.25 goals and Yeovil to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.82 |
|
1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.03 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |
|
5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
|
NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.59 |
2.85 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.74 |
3.99 |
2.60 |
|
4+ goals |
2.92 |
3.26 |
2.85 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.80 |
3.71 |
2.68 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.59 |
2.85 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
6.46 |
2.32 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.23 |
2.60 |
3.27 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.92 |
3.26 |
2.85 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.73 |
3.84 |
2.68 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.28 |
2.68 |
3.10 |
|
No Goal |
2.36 |
6.40 |
2.38 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |
5.41 |
2.39 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.40 |
2.48 |
Go to Top