2021 01 05 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ath Bilbao vs Barcelona at 06 /202


Ath Bilbao vs Barcelona at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Bilbao

4.35

2.15

23.5

Draw

3.81

3.75

0.4

Barcelona

1.83

3.73

-27.8

Over 2.5

1.85

1.96

-3.0

Under 2.5

1.99

2.04

-1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Bilbao, Draw (23.5 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance at home.
Ath Bilbao, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Elche

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Dec

Sociedad

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Dec

Villarreal

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Dec

Huesca

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Real Madrid

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Valencia

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Dec

Celta

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G


Barcelona in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance as a guest.
Barcelona, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Valladolid

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Valencia

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Osasuna

H

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Bilbao and the red line for guest team, Barcelona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Bilbao

21%

32%

24%

23%

Barcelona

28%

43%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 0.91 goals and Barcelona to score 1.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Barcelona to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.48 goals and Barcelona to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

4.15

1

5.49

2-3

2.02

2

4.07

4+

3.80

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.75

Un 1.5

4.15

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

2.31

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

4.08

2.65

2-3 goals

2.12

3.54

4.09

4+ goals

1.88

3.93

4.70

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.66

4.28

Un 1.5

2.65

4.08

2.65

Ov 2.5

1.67

7.64

3.71

Un 2.5

3.08

2.45

3.75

Ov 3.5

1.88

3.93

4.70

Un 3.5

2.26

3.70

3.47

Goal-Goal

2.33

2.74

4.85

No Goal

1.95

7.32

2.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.76

6.37

3.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

7.32

2.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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