2021 01 05 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 06 /202


AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between AFC Wimbledon and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AFC Wimbledon

2.15

2.27

-2.5

Draw

3.37

3.61

-2.0

Wigan

3.42

3.52

-0.8

Over 2.5

2.08

2.22

-3.0

Under 2.5

1.75

1.82

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance at home.
AFC Wimbledon, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Lincoln

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Oxford

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Crewe

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Charlton

A

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Bristol Rvs

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Dec

Peterboro

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Gillingham

A

1

2

L

O

G


Wigan in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance as a guest.
Wigan, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Burton

A

4

3

W

O

G

26 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Rochdale

H

0

5

L

O

N

12 Dec

Accrington

H

4

3

W

O

G

05 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AFC Wimbledon and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AFC Wimbledon

22%

39%

23%

16%

Wigan

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.38 goals and Wigan to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team AFC Wimbledon to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.33 goals and Wigan to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.51

1

4.76

2-3

1.98

2

3.77

4+

4.74

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.51

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.80

3.65

2-3 goals

2.33

3.66

3.37

4+ goals

2.32

3.30

3.77

Ov 1.5

2.32

3.54

3.48

Un 1.5

2.16

3.80

3.65

Ov 2.5

1.98

7.05

2.84

Un 2.5

2.59

2.58

4.40

Ov 3.5

2.32

3.30

3.77

Un 3.5

2.26

3.71

3.46

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.55

3.71

No Goal

1.83

6.48

3.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.89

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.48

3.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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