Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 06 /202
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 06 /202
In this section we will analyze the game between AFC Wimbledon and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
AFC Wimbledon |
2.15 |
2.27 |
-2.5 |
|
Draw |
3.37 |
3.61 |
-2.0 |
|
Wigan |
3.42 |
3.52 |
-0.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.22 |
-3.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.82 |
-2.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance at home.
AFC Wimbledon, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Wigan in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance as a guest.
Wigan, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Burton |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AFC Wimbledon and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
AFC Wimbledon |
22% |
39% |
23% |
16% |
|
Wigan |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.38 goals and Wigan to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team AFC Wimbledon to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.33 goals and Wigan to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.51 |
|
1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
4.74 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |
|
5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.16 |
3.80 |
3.65 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.66 |
3.37 |
|
4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.30 |
3.77 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.32 |
3.54 |
3.48 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.80 |
3.65 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
7.05 |
2.84 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.58 |
4.40 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.30 |
3.77 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.71 |
3.46 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.55 |
3.71 |
|
No Goal |
1.83 |
6.48 |
3.35 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.89 |
2.71 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.48 |
3.30 |
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