2021 01 05 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mansfield vs Salford at 05 /202


Mansfield vs Salford at 05 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place on 05 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mansfield

2.46

2.86

-5.7

Draw

3.23

3.65

-3.6

Salford

3.00

2.66

4.3

Over 2.5

2.31

2.20

2.2

Under 2.5

1.63

1.83

-6.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salford, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mansfield in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Port Vale

H

4

0

W

O

N

26 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

Southend

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Carlisle

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Crawley Town

H

3

3

D

O

G

02 Dec

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N


Salford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance as a guest.
Salford, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Walsall

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Cheltenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Barrow

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Carlisle

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Salford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mansfield

32%

32%

25%

12%

Salford

28%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.18 goals and Salford to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.17 goals and Salford to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.42

1

4.95

2-3

2.04

2

3.92

4+

4.63

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.42

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.28

3.24

2.58

2-3 goals

2.57

4.38

2.61

4+ goals

3.13

3.00

2.88

Ov 1.5

2.72

3.84

2.69

Un 1.5

3.28

3.24

2.58

Ov 2.5

2.38

6.28

2.38

Un 2.5

3.44

2.71

2.94

Ov 3.5

3.13

3.00

2.88

Un 3.5

2.80

3.88

2.60

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.65

3.31

No Goal

2.65

5.69

2.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.21

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.74

5.69

2.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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