2021 01 05 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lorient vs Monaco at 06 /202
Strasbourg vs Nimes at 06 /202
St Etienne vs Paris SG at 06 /202
Reims vs Dijon at 06 /202
Nantes vs Rennes at 06 /202
Metz vs Bordeaux at 06 /202
Lyon vs Lens at 06 /202
Lille vs Angers at 06 /202
Brest vs Nice at 06 /202
Marseille vs Montpellier at 06 /202


Lorient vs Monaco at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Lorient and Monaco for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lorient

4.41

2.54

16.7

Draw

3.97

3.57

2.8

Monaco

1.77

3.07

-23.9

Over 2.5

1.75

2.53

-17.6

Under 2.5

2.13

1.65

13.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lorient, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.7 %, 2.8 %, 13.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lorient in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance at home.
Lorient, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Nice

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Rennes

H

0

3

L

O

N

16 Dec

Paris SG

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Angers

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Montpellier

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Lille

A

0

4

L

O

N

08 Nov

Nantes

H

0

2

L

U

N


Monaco in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance as a guest.
Monaco, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

St Etienne

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Lens

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Marseille

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Lille

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Nov

Paris SG

H

3

2

W

O

G

08 Nov

Nice

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lorient and the red line for guest team, Monaco.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lorient

31%

34%

26%

9%

Monaco

37%

36%

10%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lorient to score 0.93 goals and Monaco to score 1.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Monaco to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.14 goals and Monaco to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.85

0-1

2.84

1

4.18

2-3

2.14

2

3.95

4+

5.49

3

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

8.70

Un 1.5

2.84

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.12

3.14

2-3 goals

2.07

3.77

3.99

4+ goals

4.23

4.33

1.88

Ov 1.5

2.41

3.91

3.03

Un 1.5

2.77

3.12

3.14

Ov 2.5

2.30

9.43

2.18

Un 2.5

2.70

2.55

4.20

Ov 3.5

4.23

4.33

1.88

Un 3.5

2.32

3.46

3.58

Goal-Goal

3.17

2.63

3.29

No Goal

2.19

4.99

2.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

7.45

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

4.99

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Strasbourg vs Nimes at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Nimes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Strasbourg

1.59

2.33

-20.0

Draw

4.13

3.57

3.8

Nimes

5.80

3.45

11.7

Over 2.5

1.87

2.44

-12.5

Under 2.5

1.96

1.69

8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Nimes, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 11.7 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Strasbourg in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance at home.
Strasbourg, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Paris SG

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Dec

Bordeaux

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Angers

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Metz

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Nantes

A

4

0

W

O

N

27 Nov

Rennes

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Montpellier

A

3

4

L

O

G

06 Nov

Marseille

H

0

1

L

U

N


Nimes in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance as a guest.
Nimes, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Dijon

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

St Etienne

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Nice

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Lorient

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Dec

Marseille

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Monaco

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Reims

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Angers

H

1

5

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Strasbourg and the red line for guest team, Nimes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Strasbourg

26%

35%

26%

12%

Nimes

37%

36%

16%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.86 goals and Nimes to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Strasbourg to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.24 goals and Nimes to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.10

1

4.44

2-3

2.03

2

3.73

4+

5.43

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.10

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

5.43

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.30

3.36

2-3 goals

2.06

3.88

3.88

4+ goals

2.92

3.29

2.83

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.70

3.53

Un 1.5

2.50

3.30

3.36

Ov 2.5

2.00

7.30

2.74

Un 2.5

2.60

2.63

4.25

Ov 3.5

2.92

3.29

2.83

Un 3.5

2.22

3.63

3.66

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.54

3.83

No Goal

1.98

5.47

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

6.02

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.47

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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St Etienne vs Paris SG at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between St Etienne and Paris SG for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

St Etienne

7.75

3.14

18.9

Draw

5.26

3.40

10.4

Paris SG

1.40

2.58

-32.7

Over 2.5

1.49

2.52

-27.4

Under 2.5

2.56

1.66

21.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at St Etienne, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.9 %, 10.4 %, 21.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

St Etienne in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance at home.
St Etienne, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Monaco

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Nimes

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Bordeaux

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Dec

Dijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Brest

A

1

4

L

O

G

08 Nov

Lyon

A

1

2

L

O

G


Paris SG in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance as a guest.
Paris SG, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Strasbourg

H

4

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Lorient

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Lyon

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Montpellier

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Bordeaux

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Nov

Monaco

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Nov

Rennes

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, St Etienne and the red line for guest team, Paris SG.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

St Etienne

34%

41%

15%

9%

Paris SG

34%

34%

9%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 0.68 goals and Paris SG to score 2.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.16 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 1.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 0.99 goals and Paris SG to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.47

0-1

2.65

1

3.86

2-3

2.36

2

4.42

4+

5.03

3

5.08

Ov 1.5

1.61

4

7.30

Un 1.5

2.65

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.32

Ov 3.5

5.03

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.19

3.19

2-3 goals

3.09

2.98

2.94

4+ goals

4.98

5.85

1.59

Ov 1.5

3.51

3.53

2.31

Un 1.5

2.67

3.19

3.19

Ov 2.5

3.19

11.65

1.66

Un 2.5

3.11

2.32

4.05

Ov 3.5

4.98

5.85

1.59

Un 3.5

2.88

3.08

3.05

Goal-Goal

4.63

2.45

2.66

No Goal

2.52

4.81

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.11

8.50

1.78

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

4.81

3.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reims vs Dijon at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and Dijon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

1.87

2.02

-4.0

Draw

3.67

3.77

-0.7

Dijon

4.35

4.17

1.0

Over 2.5

2.06

2.43

-7.4

Under 2.5

1.81

1.70

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dijon, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Bordeaux

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Nantes

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Dec

Brest

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Nice

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Nimes

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Lens

A

4

4

D

O

G


Dijon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dijon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance as a guest.
Dijon, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Nimes

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Monaco

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

St Etienne

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Nice

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Lens

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Metz

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, Dijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

25%

30%

31%

14%

Dijon

43%

34%

14%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 1.56 goals and Dijon to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Reims to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.34 goals and Dijon to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Reims to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.12

1

4.69

2-3

2.00

2

3.72

4+

5.56

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.40

Un 1.5

3.12

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.34

Ov 3.5

5.56

NoG

1.75

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

2.99

3.86

2-3 goals