2021 01 05 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nacional vs Sp Lisbon at 07 /202


Nacional vs Sp Lisbon at 07 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Nacional and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 07 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nacional

6.50

12.20

-7.2

Draw

4.35

4.02

1.9

Sp Lisbon

1.48

1.49

-0.5

Over 2.5

1.69

3.11

-27.0

Under 2.5

2.17

1.47

21.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (1.9 %, 21.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nacional in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance at home.
Nacional, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Santa Clara

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Portimonense

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Gil Vicente

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Maritimo

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Sp Braga

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Belenenses

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Moreirense

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Guimaraes

A

4

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tondela

H

4

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nacional and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nacional

62%

32%

13%

-7%

Sp Lisbon

21%

34%

23%

23%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nacional to score 0.71 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 2.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nacional to score 0.37 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.85 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.11 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.81

0-1

2.48

1

3.64

2-3

1.92

2

3.62

4+

12.99

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.68

4

12.66

Un 1.5

2.48

5

71.43

Ov 2.5

3.12

6+

-62.50

Un 2.5

1.47

Gg

3.31

Ov 3.5

12.99

NoG

1.43

Un 3.5

1.08

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

6.11

3.15

1.93

2-3 goals

9.29

4.81

1.46

4+ goals

-1.92

5.50

0.75

Ov 1.5

37.31

4.89

1.30

Un 1.5

6.11

3.15

1.93

Ov 2.5

-29.18

22.93

1.01

Un 2.5

7.30

2.88

1.94

Ov 3.5

-1.92

5.50

0.75

Un 3.5

7.57

3.91

1.63

Goal-Goal

75.50

2.48

1.72

No Goal

8.95

5.45

1.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

48.50

13.86

1.10

NG+Un 2.5

6.14

5.45

1.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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