2021 01 05 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cagliari vs Benevento at 06 /202
Torino vs Verona at 06 /202
Sassuolo vs Genoa at 06 /202
Sampdoria vs Inter at 06 /202
Napoli vs Spezia at 06 /202
Milan vs Juventus at 06 /202
Crotone vs Roma at 06 /202
Bologna vs Udinese at 06 /202
Atalanta vs Parma at 06 /202
Lazio vs Fiorentina at 06 /202


Cagliari vs Benevento at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Cagliari and Benevento for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cagliari

2.48

2.48

0.0

Draw

3.33

3.69

-2.9

Benevento

2.98

3.08

-1.1

Over 2.5

1.74

1.95

-6.2

Under 2.5

2.13

2.05

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cagliari in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance at home.
Cagliari, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Napoli

H

1

4

L

O

G

23 Dec

Roma

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

Udinese

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Inter

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Dec

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Spezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Juventus

A

0

2

L

U

N


Benevento in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance as a guest.
Benevento, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Udinese

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Genoa

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Sassuolo

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Fiorentina

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Benevento.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cagliari

30%

17%

39%

14%

Benevento

34%

24%

28%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.47 goals and Benevento to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.37 goals and Benevento to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

4.35

1

7.75

2-3

2.05

2

3.91

4+

3.53

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.35

5

10.53

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.04

2.28

3.19

2-3 goals

1.77

12.20

2.82

4+ goals

3.88

2.18

3.54

Ov 1.5

2.22

4.54

3.05

Un 1.5

4.04

2.28

3.19

Ov 2.5

2.40

3.96

3.03

Un 2.5

2.56

3.45

3.14

Ov 3.5

3.88

2.18

3.54

Un 3.5

2.16

5.09

2.93

Goal-Goal

2.77

2.74

3.66

No Goal

2.26

5.31

2.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

3.27

3.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

5.31

2.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torino vs Verona at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Verona for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torino

2.59

2.82

-3.1

Draw

3.37

3.66

-2.4

Verona

2.84

2.67

2.2

Over 2.5

2.01

2.04

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.84

1.96

-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Verona (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torino in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Dec

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Udinese

H

2

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Juventus

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Sampdoria

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Inter

A

2

4

L

O

G


Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance as a guest.
Verona, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Spezia

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Sampdoria

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Lazio

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Atalanta

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Sassuolo

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Verona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torino

33%

23%

33%

12%

Verona

34%

22%

29%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.27 goals and Verona to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.23 goals and Verona to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

3.89

1

6.80

2-3

2.07

2

3.94

4+

3.83

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.89

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.38

2.34

3.62

2-3 goals

2.19

9.84

2.26

4+ goals

4.50

2.29

2.93

Ov 1.5

2.67

4.56

2.46

Un 1.5

3.38

2.34

3.62

Ov 2.5

2.91

4.29

2.36

Un 2.5

2.75

3.21

3.08

Ov 3.5

4.50

2.29

2.93

Un 3.5

2.50

4.65

2.60

Goal-Goal

3.46

2.74

2.90

No Goal

2.46

5.04

2.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.08

3.48

2.58

NG+Un 2.5

2.48

5.04

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sassuolo vs Genoa at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Genoa for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

1.82

2.11

-7.6

Draw

3.73

3.89

-1.1

Genoa

4.54

3.72

4.9

Over 2.5

1.81

2.26

-11.0

Under 2.5

2.03

1.80

6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Genoa, Under 2.5 (4.9 %, 6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Atalanta

A

1

5

L

O

G

23 Dec

Sampdoria

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Benevento

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Roma

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Inter

H

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Verona

A

2

0

W

U

N


Genoa in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance as a guest.
Genoa, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Spezia

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Benevento

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Milan

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Dec

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Nov

Parma

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Udinese

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

23%

37%

20%

19%

Genoa

43%

24%

26%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.75 goals and Genoa to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Sassuolo to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.35 goals and Genoa to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Sassuolo to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.14

1

4.61

2-3

2.07

2

4.20

4+

4.98

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.14

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.99

3.15

5.58

2-3 goals

2.21

5.36

2.77

4+ goals

2.07

3.05

5.29

Ov 1.5

2.17

4.38

3.22

Un 1.5

1.99

3.15

5.58

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.74

2.95

Un 2.5

2.25

2.91

4.71

Ov 3.5

2.07

3.05

5.29

Un 3.5

2.12

4.19

3.46

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.80

3.24

No Goal

1.71

5.58

4.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.38

5.26

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

5.58

3.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sampdoria vs Inter at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Inter for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sampdoria

5.96

3.57

11.2

Draw

4.26

3.05

9.3

Inter

1.57

2.56

-24.6

Over 2.5

1.66

2.31

-17.0

Under 2.5

2.26

1.76

12.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sampdoria, Draw, Under 2.5 (11.2 %, 9.3 %, 12.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sampdoria in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance at home.
Sampdoria, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Dec

Sassuolo

H

2

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Crotone

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Napoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Bologna

H

1

2

L

O

G


Inter in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance as a guest.
Inter, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Crotone

H

6

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Spezia

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Napoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Cagliari

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Bologna

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Sassuolo

A

3

0

W

O

N

22 Nov

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Inter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sampdoria

44%

8%

46%

3%

Inter

38%

12%

33%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 0.79 goals and Inter to score 2.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 1.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.08 goals and Inter to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.10

0-1

4.10

1

12.50

2-3

2.03

2

3.09

4+

3.75

3

5.95

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.10

5

10.75

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.82

Ov 3.5

3.75

NoG

1.54

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at