2021 01 05 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Apollon vs Panathinaikos at 06 /202
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos at 06 /202
Larisa vs Giannina at 06 /202
AEK vs Panetolikos at 06 /202
Aris vs Volos NFC at 07 /202
Atromitos vs PAOK at 07 /202
OFI Crete vs Lamia at 07 /202


Apollon vs Panathinaikos at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Apollon

3.38

3.15

2.2

Draw

3.32

3.40

-0.7

Panathinaikos

2.09

2.56

-8.8

Over 2.5

2.26

2.70

-7.2

Under 2.5

1.60

1.59

0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Apollon, Under 2.5 (2.2 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Apollon in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Giannina

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

AEK

H

3

4

L

O

G

06 Dec

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

Volos NFC

H

3

3

D

O

G

25 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Atromitos

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G


Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Dec

PAOK

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Giannina

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

AEK

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Panetolikos

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Apollon

33%

42%

18%

8%

Panathinaikos

32%

30%

34%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 0.92 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the guest team Panathinaikos to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 1 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.52

0-1

2.97

1

4.31

2-3

1.90

2

3.41

4+

7.25

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

9.80

Un 1.5

2.97

5

30.30

Ov 2.5

2.70

6+

333.33

Un 2.5

1.59

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

7.25

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.16

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.51

3.21

3.44

2-3 goals

3.90

4.17

1.98

4+ goals

2.88

2.19

5.11

Ov 1.5

3.63

3.51

2.27

Un 1.5

2.51

3.21

3.44

Ov 2.5

2.94

5.89

2.04

Un 2.5

3.30

2.73

3.03

Ov 3.5

2.88

2.19

5.11

Un 3.5

3.21

3.74

2.38

Goal-Goal

4.49

2.42

2.74

No Goal

2.53

5.17

2.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.25

5.27

1.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.64

5.17

2.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Asteras Tripolis

6.94

2.55

24.8

Draw

4.31

3.40

6.2

Olympiakos

1.45

3.17

-37.4

Over 2.5

1.91

2.99

-18.9

Under 2.5

1.89

1.50

13.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.8 %, 6.2 %, 13.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Dec

Giannina

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Dec

Atromitos

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Dec

Volos NFC

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

PAOK

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

AEK

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Nov

Apollon

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Lamia

A

2

2

D

O

G


Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance as a guest.
Olympiakos, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

AEK

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

Larisa

H

5

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Lamia

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Volos NFC

H

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Aris

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, Olympiakos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Asteras Tripolis

35%

33%

27%

5%

Olympiakos

42%

33%

11%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 0.62 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 1.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.03 goals and Olympiakos to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.80

0-1

2.48

1

3.91

2-3

2.19

2

3.82

4+

7.14

3

5.15

Ov 1.5

1.68

4

10.99

Un 1.5

2.48

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.99

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.50

Gg

2.67

Ov 3.5

7.14

NoG

1.60

Un 3.5

1.16

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

2.74

3.47

2-3 goals

2.00

4.15

3.86

4+ goals

5.83

3.89

1.75

Ov 1.5

2.37

4.08

3.01

Un 1.5

2.88

2.74

3.47

Ov 2.5

2.44

9.28

2.07

Un 2.5

2.61

2.59

4.35

Ov 3.5

5.83

3.89

1.75

Un 3.5

2.33

3.34

3.67

Goal-Goal

3.29

2.57

3.26

No Goal

2.24

4.24

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

7.36

2.30

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

4.24

3.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Larisa vs Giannina at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and Giannina for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Larisa

2.54

4.03

-14.6

Draw

3.18

3.36

-1.7

Giannina

2.89

2.20

10.9

Over 2.5

2.48

3.11

-8.2

Under 2.5

1.51

1.47

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Giannina, Under 2.5 (10.9 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

PAOK

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Olympiakos

A

1

5

L

O

G

12 Dec

OFI Crete

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Aris

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Nov

AEK

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Nov

Giannina

A

2

1

W

O

G


Giannina in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance as a guest.
Giannina, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Apollon

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Dec

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Panathinaikos

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Lamia

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

OFI Crete

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

PAOK

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Panetolikos

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Nov

Larisa

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, Giannina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Larisa

43%

39%

13%

5%

Giannina

31%

32%

29%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.08 goals and Giannina to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 0.8 goals and Giannina to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.95 goals in the game and the guest team Giannina to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.58

0-1

2.58

1

3.91

2-3

2.02

2

3.46

4+

8.62

3

4.83

Ov 1.5

1.63

4

11.63

Un 1.5

2.58

5

38.46

Ov 2.5

3.10

6+

250.00

Un 2.5

1.48

Gg

2.53

Ov 3.5

8.62

NoG

1.66

Un 3.5

1.13

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.21

2.94

2.87

2-3 goals

5.11

4.00

1.80

4+ goals

3.74

2.76

2.70

Ov 1.5

4.78

3.69

1.92

Un 1.5

3.21

2.94

2.87

Ov 2.5

3.67

7.69

1.67

Un 2.5

4.20

2.64

2.60

Ov 3.5

3.74

2.76

2.70

Un 3.5

4.06

3.45

2.16

Goal-Goal

5.50

2.39

2.51

No Goal

3.41

4.58

2.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.78

6.48

1.72

NG+Un 2.5

3.43

4.58

2.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


AEK vs Panetolikos at 06 /202

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 /202.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AEK

1.18

2.00

-34.7

Draw

6.29

3.68

11.3

Panetolikos

14.95

4.41

16.0

Over 2.5

1.76

2.50

-16.8

Under 2.5

2.06

1.67

11.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Panetolikos, Under 2.5 (11.3 %, 16 %, 11.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AEK in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance at home.
AEK, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Dec

Volos NFC

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Olympiakos

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Apollon

A

4

3

W

O

G

06 Dec

Panathinaikos

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Larisa

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G


Panetolikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance as a guest.
Panetolikos, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Apollon

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Dec

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Dec

Larisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Giannina

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AEK and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AEK

25%

36%

18%

21%

Panetolikos

44%

33%

19%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AEK to score 2.34 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 1.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AEK to score 1.35 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

2.84

1

4.13

2-3

2.09

2

4.02

4+

5.92

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

8.62

Un 1.5

2.84

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.51

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.39

Ov 3.5

5.92

NoG

1.72

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

3.20

4.19