2021 01 08 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Bayern Munich at 08 January 2021
Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen at 09 January 2021
Freiburg vs FC Koln at 09 January 2021
Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim at 09 January 2021
Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg at 09 January 2021
Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt at 09 January 2021
RB Leipzig vs Dortmund at 09 January 2021
Bielefeld vs Hertha at 10 January 2021
Augsburg vs Stuttgart at 10 January 2021


<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

M’gladbach vs Bayern Munich at 08 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 08 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

M’gladbach

4.93

2.27

23.8

Draw

4.84

4.02

4.2

Bayern Munich

1.60

3.22

-31.4

Over 2.5

1.29

1.75

-20.4

Under 2.5

3.53

2.34

14.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at M’gladbach, Draw, Under 2.5 (23.8 %, 4.2 %, 14.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

M’gladbach in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Bielefeld

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Hoffenheim

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Ein Frankfurt

A

3

3

D

O

G

12 Dec

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Freiburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Schalke 04

H

4

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Augsburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Leverkusen

A

3

4

L

O

G


Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance as a guest.
Bayern Munich, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Mainz

H

5

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

Leverkusen

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Wolfsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

RB Leipzig

H

3

3

D

O

G

28 Nov

Stuttgart

A

3

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Dortmund

A

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

M’gladbach

25%

34%

6%

35%

Bayern Munich

33%

27%

22%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.11 goals and Bayern Munich to score 2.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.76 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 1.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.52 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.83

1

5.59

2-3

2.39

2

6.06

4+

3.12

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.95

Un 1.5

3.83

5

11.11

Ov 2.5

1.74

6+

15.87

Un 2.5

2.35

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.12

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.18

3.95

2-3 goals

2.71

4.64

2.40

4+ goals

1.84

4.22

4.52

Ov 1.5

2.25

4.45

3.02

Un 1.5

2.31

3.18

3.95

Ov 2.5

1.86

7.55

3.02

Un 2.5

3.20

2.48

3.52

Ov 3.5

1.84

4.22

4.52

Un 3.5

2.54

3.95

2.83

Goal-Goal

2.64

3.02

3.44

No Goal

1.98

6.07

3.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.42

2.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

6.07

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Werder Bremen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leverkusen

1.44

1.92

-17.4

Draw

4.77

4.15

3.1

Werder Bremen

7.22

4.18

10.1

Over 2.5

1.62

1.79

-5.9

Under 2.5

2.28

2.27

0.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Werder Bremen, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 10.1 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leverkusen in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance at home.
Leverkusen, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Bayern Munich

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

FC Koln

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Dec

Hoffenheim

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Schalke 04

A

3

0

W

O

N

29 Nov

Hertha

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Bielefeld

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

M’gladbach

H

4

3

W

O

G


Werder Bremen in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance as a guest.
Werder Bremen, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Union Berlin

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Dortmund

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

RB Leipzig

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Stuttgart

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Wolfsburg

A

3

5

L

O

G

21 Nov

Bayern Munich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

FC Koln

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Werder Bremen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leverkusen

18%

31%

19%

32%

Werder Bremen

36%

32%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 2.23 goals and Werder Bremen to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 1.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.64 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.24

1

5.88

2-3

2.16

2

4.90

4+

3.32

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.24

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.79

6+

26.32

Un 2.5

2.27

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.32

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.13

3.58

4.00

2-3 goals

1.90

4.62

3.88

4+ goals

1.81

4.01

5.02

Ov 1.5

1.87

4.36

4.26

Un 1.5

2.13

3.58

4.00

Ov 2.5

1.64

7.45

3.91

Un 2.5

2.46

2.65

4.63

Ov 3.5

1.81

4.01

5.02

Un 3.5

1.97

4.20

3.92

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.99

4.32

No Goal

1.62

7.21

4.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.64

3.50

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

7.21

3.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Freiburg vs FC Koln at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Freiburg and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Freiburg

1.94

2.05

-2.8

Draw

3.65

4.02

-2.5

FC Koln

4.01

3.79

1.4

Over 2.5

1.83

1.82

0.3

Under 2.5

2.02

2.21

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Koln, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Freiburg in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance at home.
Freiburg, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Hertha

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Schalke 04

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Bielefeld

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Augsburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Mainz

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Nov

RB Leipzig

A

0

3

L

O

N


FC Koln in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance as a guest.
FC Koln, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Augsburg

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

RB Leipzig

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Leverkusen

H

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Wolfsburg

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Union Berlin

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Nov

Werder Bremen

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Freiburg and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Freiburg

20%

32%

21%

28%

FC Koln

34%

32%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.66 goals and FC Koln to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Freiburg to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.57 goals and FC Koln to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Freiburg to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

4.18

1

5.81

2-3

2.15

2

4.69

4+

3.38

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.71

Un 1.5

4.18

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

1.82

6+

27.03

Un 2.5

2.21

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.38

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.21

3.57

3.73

2-3 goals

2.01

4.52

3.56

4+ goals

2.00

3.75

4.29

Ov 1.5

2.01

4.19

3.81

Un 1.5

2.21

3.57

3.73

Ov 2.5

1.77

6.95

3.43

Un 2.5

2.54

2.66

4.35

Ov 3.5

2.00

3.75

4.29

Un 3.5

2.07

4.15

3.62

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.92

3.96

No Goal

1.72

7.01

3.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.42

3.19

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

7.01

3.36


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Schalke 04 and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Schalke 04

4.32

3.66

4.2

Draw

4.04

4.07

-0.2

Hoffenheim

1.80

2.08

-7.5

Over 2.5

1.59

1.81

-7.6

Under 2.5

2.42

2.24

3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Schalke 04, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Schalke 04 in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance at home.
Schalke 04, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Bielefeld

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Freiburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Augsburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Leverkusen

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Nov

M’gladbach

A

1

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Wolfsburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Mainz

A

2

2

D

O

G


Hoffenheim in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance as a guest.
Hoffenheim, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Freiburg

H

1

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

M’gladbach

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Dec

Leverkusen

A

1

4

L

O

G

07 Dec

Augsburg

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Stuttgart

H

3

3

D

O

G

08 Nov

Wolfsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Schalke 04 and the red line for guest team, Hoffenheim.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Schalke 04

32%

38%

13%

16%

Hoffenheim

25%

23%

24%

28%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Schalke 04 to score 1.03 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the guest team Hoffenheim to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Schalke 04 to score 1.13 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.56 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Hoffenheim to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

4.02

1

5.92

2-3

2.22

2

5.05

4+

3.34

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.02

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

21.74

Un 2.5

2.24

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.34

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-