# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’>** M’gladbach vs Bayern Munich at 08 January 2021**** Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen at 09 January 2021**** Freiburg vs FC Koln at 09 January 2021**** Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim at 09 January 2021**** Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg at 09 January 2021**** Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt at 09 January 2021**** RB Leipzig vs Dortmund at 09 January 2021**** Bielefeld vs Hertha at 10 January 2021**** Augsburg vs Stuttgart at 10 January 2021**

<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

###
M’gladbach vs Bayern Munich at 08 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **M’gladbach** and **Bayern Munich** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **08 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

M’gladbach |
4.93 |
2.27 |
23.8 |

Draw |
4.84 |
4.02 |
4.2 |

Bayern Munich |
1.60 |
3.22 |
-31.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.29 |
1.75 |
-20.4 |

Under 2.5 |
3.53 |
2.34 |
14.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **M’gladbach, Draw, Under 2.5 (23.8 %, 4.2 %, 14.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** at home**.

M’gladbach,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Augsburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Leverkusen |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bayern Munich** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Bayern Munich** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance** as a guest**.

Bayern Munich,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Stuttgart |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Dortmund |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **M’gladbach** and the red line for guest team, **Bayern Munich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

M’gladbach |
25% |
34% |
6% |
35% |

Bayern Munich |
33% |
27% |
22% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **2.65 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.76** goals in the game and the guest team **Bayern Munich ** to win by **1.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.39 |

2 |
6.06 |
4+ |
3.12 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |

6+ |
15.87 |
Un 2.5 |
2.35 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.12 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.18 |
3.95 |

2-3 goals |
2.71 |
4.64 |
2.40 |

4+ goals |
1.84 |
4.22 |
4.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
4.45 |
3.02 |

Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.18 |
3.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.55 |
3.02 |

Un 2.5 |
3.20 |
2.48 |
3.52 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.22 |
4.52 |

Un 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.95 |
2.83 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
3.02 |
3.44 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
6.07 |
3.02 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.42 |
2.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.07 |
2.78 |

####
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###
Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leverkusen** and **Werder Bremen** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **09 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leverkusen |
1.44 |
1.92 |
-17.4 |

Draw |
4.77 |
4.15 |
3.1 |

Werder Bremen |
7.22 |
4.18 |
10.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.79 |
-5.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.27 |
0.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Werder Bremen, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 10.1 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** at home**.

Leverkusen,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
FC Koln |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Hertha |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Bielefeld |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
M’gladbach |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

**Werder Bremen** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Werder Bremen** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance** as a guest**.

Werder Bremen,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leverkusen** and the red line for guest team, **Werder Bremen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leverkusen |
18% |
31% |
19% |
32% |

Werder Bremen |
36% |
32% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **2.23 ** goals and **Werder Bremen** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.91** goals in the game and the home team **Leverkusen ** to win by **1.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Werder Bremen** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.72** goals in the game and the home team **Leverkusen ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.90 |
4+ |
3.32 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |

6+ |
26.32 |
Un 2.5 |
2.27 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.32 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.13 |
3.58 |
4.00 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
4.62 |
3.88 |

4+ goals |
1.81 |
4.01 |
5.02 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.87 |
4.36 |
4.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.13 |
3.58 |
4.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.45 |
3.91 |

Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
2.65 |
4.63 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.81 |
4.01 |
5.02 |

Un 3.5 |
1.97 |
4.20 |
3.92 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.99 |
4.32 |

No Goal |
1.62 |
7.21 |
4.07 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.64 |
3.50 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
7.21 |
3.58 |

####
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###
Freiburg vs FC Koln at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Freiburg** and **FC Koln** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **09 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Freiburg |
1.94 |
2.05 |
-2.8 |

Draw |
3.65 |
4.02 |
-2.5 |

FC Koln |
4.01 |
3.79 |
1.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.82 |
0.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.21 |
-4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Koln, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Freiburg** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Freiburg** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance** at home**.

Freiburg,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Bielefeld |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Koln,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Dortmund |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Freiburg** and the red line for guest team, **FC Koln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Freiburg |
20% |
32% |
21% |
28% |

FC Koln |
34% |
32% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Freiburg** to score **1.66 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and the home team **Freiburg ** to win by **0.68** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Freiburg** to score **1.57 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Freiburg ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.15 |

2 |
4.69 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |

6+ |
27.03 |
Un 2.5 |
2.21 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.21 |
3.57 |
3.73 |

2-3 goals |
2.01 |
4.52 |
3.56 |

4+ goals |
2.00 |
3.75 |
4.29 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.01 |
4.19 |
3.81 |

Un 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.57 |
3.73 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.95 |
3.43 |

Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.66 |
4.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.75 |
4.29 |

Un 3.5 |
2.07 |
4.15 |
3.62 |

Goal-Goal |
2.47 |
2.92 |
3.96 |

No Goal |
1.72 |
7.01 |
3.62 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.42 |
3.19 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
7.01 |
3.36 |

####
Go to Top

###
Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Schalke 04** and **Hoffenheim** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **09 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Schalke 04 |
4.32 |
3.66 |
4.2 |

Draw |
4.04 |
4.07 |
-0.2 |

Hoffenheim |
1.80 |
2.08 |
-7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.81 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.24 |
3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Schalke 04, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 3.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Schalke 04** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Schalke 04** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance** at home**.

Schalke 04,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Freiburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** as a guest**.

Hoffenheim,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Stuttgart |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Schalke 04** and the red line for guest team, **Hoffenheim. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Schalke 04 |
32% |
38% |
13% |
16% |

Hoffenheim |
25% |
23% |
24% |
28% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Schalke 04** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3** goals in the game and the guest team **Hoffenheim ** to win by **0.94** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Schalke 04** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.56 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the guest team **Hoffenheim ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.92 |
2-3 |
2.22 |

2 |
5.05 |
4+ |
3.34 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
21.74 |
Un 2.5 |
2.24 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.34 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |