2021 01 08 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hartlepool vs Wealdstone at 09 January 2021
King’s Lynn vs Halifax at 09 January 2021
Aldershot vs Barnet at 09 January 2021
Bromley vs Chesterfield at 09 January 2021
Altrincham vs Sutton at 09 January 2021
Wrexham vs Woking at 09 January 2021
Eastleigh vs Notts County at 09 January 2021


Hartlepool vs Wealdstone at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hartlepool and Wealdstone for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hartlepool

1.65

1.97

-9.8

Draw

4.03

4.02

0.1

Wealdstone

4.58

4.12

2.4

Over 2.5

1.65

1.96

-9.6

Under 2.5

2.22

2.04

4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (0.1 %, 2.4 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hartlepool in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance at home.
Hartlepool, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Halifax

H

3

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Stockport

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Solihull

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N


Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance as a guest.
Wealdstone, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Maidenhead

A

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Weymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Dec

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Notts County

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Sutton

H

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Eastleigh

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Nov

Halifax

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hartlepool and the red line for guest team, Wealdstone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hartlepool

22%

27%

26%

25%

Wealdstone

35%

37%

19%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.95 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team Hartlepool to win by 1.04 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.53 goals and Wealdstone to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Hartlepool to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.91

1

5.65

2-3

2.05

2

4.29

4+

3.89

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.24

3.08

2-3 goals

1.77

4.98

4.28

4+ goals

1.85

3.57

5.59

Ov 1.5

1.80

4.38

4.66

Un 1.5

2.72

3.24

3.08

Ov 2.5

1.59

7.11

4.38

Un 2.5

2.63

2.76

3.88

Ov 3.5

1.85

3.57

5.59

Un 3.5

2.01

4.20

3.78

Goal-Goal

2.14

2.95

5.18

No Goal

1.82

6.32

3.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

5.61

4.16

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

6.32

3.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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King’s Lynn vs Halifax at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

King’s Lynn

2.86

2.74

1.5

Draw

3.61

3.68

-0.5

Halifax

2.25

2.75

-8.1

Over 2.5

1.69

2.02

-9.7

Under 2.5

2.13

1.98

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at King’s Lynn, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

King’s Lynn in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance at home.
King’s Lynn, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Hartlepool

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Bromley

H

1

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Dover Athletic

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Nov

Sutton

A

1

5

L

O

G

31 Oct

Woking

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Wealdstone

H

2

3

L

O

G


Halifax in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Dec

Altrincham

H

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Eastleigh

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Aldershot

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Weymouth

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Barnet

H

5

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Sutton

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, King’s Lynn and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

King’s Lynn

25%

37%

23%

15%

Halifax

27%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.27 goals and Halifax to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.27 goals and Halifax to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.88

1

5.29

2-3

2.03

2

4.02

4+

4.00

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.74

2.93

2-3 goals

2.75

3.85

2.65

4+ goals

2.94

3.29

2.81

Ov 1.5

2.81

3.64

2.70

Un 1.5

2.55

3.74

2.93

Ov 2.5

2.43

6.50

2.30

Un 2.5

3.13

2.57

3.43

Ov 3.5

2.94

3.29

2.81

Un 3.5

2.68

3.81

2.74

Goal-Goal

3.34

2.67

3.07

No Goal

2.26

6.62

2.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.55

5.47

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.62

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aldershot vs Barnet at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aldershot and Barnet for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aldershot

1.83

1.86

-0.9

Draw

3.73

4.17

-2.8

Barnet

3.89

4.48

-3.4

Over 2.5

1.73

1.96

-6.8

Under 2.5

2.09

2.04

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aldershot in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance at home.
Aldershot, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Woking

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Dec

Yeovil

A

0

3

L

O

N

26 Dec

Woking

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Boreham Wood

A

2

3

L

O

G

08 Dec

Halifax

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Dag and Red

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Chesterfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Wrexham

A

0

1

L

U

N


Barnet in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance as a guest.
Barnet, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Chesterfield

A

0

6

L

O

N

08 Dec

Stockport

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Wealdstone

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Halifax

A

2

5

L

O

G

24 Nov

Hartlepool

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Woking

A

1

4

L

O

G

17 Nov

King’s Lynn

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aldershot and the red line for guest team, Barnet.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aldershot

23%

23%

27%

27%

Barnet

38%

37%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.74 goals and Barnet to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Aldershot to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.57 goals and Barnet to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Aldershot to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.82

1

5.78

2-3

2.06

2

4.41

4+

3.95

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.82

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.05

2.94

3.01

2-3 goals

1.60

5.79

4.91

4+ goals

1.70

3.78

6.84

Ov 1.5

1.63

4.89

5.43

Un 1.5

3.05

2.94

3.01

Ov 2.5

1.46

7.64

5.45

Un 2.5

2.61

2.83

3.79

Ov 3.5

1.70

3.78

6.84

Un 3.5

1.92

4.32

4.02

Goal-Goal

1.92

3.15

6.18

No Goal

1.81

5.90

3.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

5.85

5.09

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

5.90

3.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bromley vs Chesterfield at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bromley

2.26

2.84

-9.0

Draw

3.52

3.68

-1.2

Chesterfield

2.89

2.66

3.0

Over 2.5

1.75

2.04

-8.1

Under 2.5

2.06

1.96

2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Chesterfield, Under 2.5 (3 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bromley in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Solihull

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Yeovil

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

King’s Lynn

A

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Wrexham

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Maidenhead

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Nov

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G


Chesterfield in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Jan

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Barnet

H

6

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Aldershot

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Weymouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Notts County

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bromley and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bromley

27%

37%

22%

14%

Chesterfield

26%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.48 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.24 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.85

1

5.29

2-3

2.03

2

4.02

4+

4.03

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

3.66