Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Waalwijk vs Den Haag at 09 January 2021
Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar at 09 January 2021
Utrecht vs Groningen at 09 January 2021
Heracles vs Vitesse at 09 January 2021
FC Emmen vs Twente at 09 January 2021
VVV Venlo vs Willem II at 10 January 2021
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven at 10 January 2021
Heerenveen vs For Sittard at 10 January 2021
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord at 10 January 2021
Waalwijk vs Den Haag at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and Den Haag for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Waalwijk |
1.78 |
2.14 |
-9.5 |
|
Draw |
3.95 |
3.91 |
0.3 |
|
Den Haag |
4.12 |
3.62 |
3.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.90 |
-9.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.11 |
4.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Den Haag, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 3.4 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Waalwijk in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
Den Haag in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance as a guest.
Den Haag, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Dec |
Zwolle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Ajax |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Twente |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, Den Haag.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Waalwijk |
23% |
28% |
26% |
23% |
|
Den Haag |
29% |
41% |
18% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.92 goals and Den Haag to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.94 goals in the game and the home team Waalwijk to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.49 goals and Den Haag to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Waalwijk to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.15 |
|
1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.65 |
|
3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |
|
5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |
|
NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.94 |
3.65 |
2.59 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.95 |
4.15 |
4.05 |
|
4+ goals |
1.99 |
3.70 |
4.42 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.98 |
4.18 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.94 |
3.65 |
2.59 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
7.11 |
3.76 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.60 |
3.52 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.99 |
3.70 |
4.42 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.97 |
3.41 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.24 |
2.88 |
4.82 |
|
No Goal |
2.01 |
6.83 |
2.80 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
5.85 |
3.80 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
6.83 |
2.65 |
Go to Top
Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Zwolle |
4.43 |
2.99 |
10.9 |
|
Draw |
4.13 |
3.68 |
3.0 |
|
AZ Alkmaar |
1.70 |
2.54 |
-19.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.75 |
-6.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.33 |
-0.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Zwolle, Draw (10.9 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Zwolle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Nov |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
AZ Alkmaar in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, AZ Alkmaar in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance as a guest.
AZ Alkmaar, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Willem II |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Twente |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Nov |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, AZ Alkmaar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Zwolle |
23% |
38% |
17% |
22% |
|
AZ Alkmaar |
17% |
39% |
25% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 0.97 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 1.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the guest team AZ Alkmaar to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.37 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 1.46 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
25.64 |
0-1 |
5.18 |
|
1 |
6.49 |
2-3 |
2.10 |
|
2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.05 |
|
3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.24 |
|
4 |
5.00 |
Un 1.5 |
5.18 |
|
5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
|
6+ |
24.39 |
Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
|
Gg |
1.57 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.05 |
|
NoG |
2.78 |
Un 3.5 |
1.49 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.02 |
4.95 |
2.14 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.64 |
3.22 |
2.41 |
|
4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.90 |
3.12 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.98 |
3.47 |
2.66 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.02 |
4.95 |
2.14 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.79 |
2.33 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.60 |
2.29 |
2.89 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.90 |
3.12 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.44 |
3.58 |
2.33 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.11 |
2.75 |
3.17 |
|
No Goal |
2.79 |
9.23 |
1.88 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
5.83 |
2.44 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
9.23 |
1.89 |
Go to Top
Utrecht vs Groningen at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Utrecht and Groningen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Utrecht |
1.85 |
2.48 |
-13.7 |
|
Draw |
3.74 |
3.86 |
-0.8 |
|
Groningen |
4.05 |
2.95 |
9.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.73 |
2.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.37 |
-7.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Groningen, Over 2.5 (9.2 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Utrecht in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance at home.
Utrecht, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
FC Emmen |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
Groningen in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance as a guest.
Groningen, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Utrecht and the red line for guest team, Groningen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Utrecht |
23% |
28% |
26% |
22% |
|
Groningen |
21% |
40% |
23% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.7 goals and Groningen to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.47 goals and Groningen to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
20.83 |
0-1 |
5.00 |
|
1 |
6.58 |
2-3 |
2.09 |
|
2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
3.09 |
|
3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |
|
4 |
5.13 |
Un 1.5 |
5.00 |
|
5 |
10.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
|
6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
|
Gg |
1.64 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.09 |
|
NoG |
2.56 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.39 |
4.17 |
2.15 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.31 |
4.16 |
3.06 |
|
4+ goals |
2.35 |
3.34 |
3.64 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.32 |
3.78 |
3.27 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |
4.17 |
2.15 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.97 |
3.02 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.71 |
2.60 |
2.90 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.34 |
3.64 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.55 |
4.16 |
2.72 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.88 |
3.97 |
|
No Goal |
2.46 |
8.15 |
2.12 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.11 |
3.22 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
8.15 |
2.11 |
Go to Top
Heracles vs Vitesse at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and Vitesse for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Heracles |
3.44 |
2.85 |
6.0 |
|
Draw |
3.65 |
3.85 |
-1.4 |
|
Vitesse |
2.03 |
2.56 |
-10.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.62 |
6.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.62 |
-11.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Heracles, Over 2.5 (6 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Heracles in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance at home.
Heracles, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
11 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Nov |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
07 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Vitesse in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance as a guest.
Vitesse, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Nov |
FC Emmen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, Vitesse.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Heracles |
22% |
33% |
21% |
23% |
|
Vitesse |
17% |
35% |
27% |
21% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.08 goals and Vitesse to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Vitesse to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.46 goals and Vitesse to score 1.53 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
26.32 |
0-1 |
5.81 |
|
1 |
7.46 |
2-3 |
2.17 |
|
2 |
4.76 |
4+ |
2.71 |
|
3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.21 |
|
4 |
4.76 |
Un 1.5 |
5.81 |
|
5 |
9.17 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
|
6+ |
20.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
|
Gg |
1.55 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.71 |
|
NoG |
2.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.58 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.