2021 01 08 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Kolossos Rhodes vs Ionikos Nikaias at 09 January 2021
Aris vs Peristeri at 09 January 2021
PAOK vs Mesologgi BC at 09 January 2021
Promitheas vs Iraklis at 10 January 2021
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens at 10 January 2021
Larissa BC vs GS Lavrio at 11 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Kolossos Rhodes vs Ionikos Nikaias at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Kolossos Rhodes and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Kolossos Rhodes

1.5

2.11

Ionikos Nikaias

2.6

1.90

Kolossos Rhodes HC

-4.5

1.50

Ionikos Nikaias HC

+4.5

-1.50

Point Line

157.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

A

AEK Athens

L

72

89

3

7

L 1

77

84

Dec 26

A

Aris

W

84

74

3

6

W 1

80

75

Dec 19

H

P.A.O.K.

L

84

85

2

6

L 2

79

84

Dec 13

A

Promitheas Patras

L

67

69

2

5

L 1

64

69

Dec 5

H

Larisa

W

90

64

2

4

W 1

84

64

Nov 22

A

Panathinaikos

L

67

90

1

4

L 2

75

81

Nov 18

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

65

66

1

3

L 1

66

70

Nov 14

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

77

62

1

2

W 1

78

60

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

H

Aris

W

68

64

4

6

W 1

64

65

Dec 27

A

P.A.O.K.

L

84

86

3

6

L 1

79

84

Dec 19

H

Promitheas Patras

W

86

77

3

5

W 2

83

77

Dec 12

A

Larisa

W

97

76

2

5

W 1

91

76

Dec 6

H

Panathinaikos

L

53

79

1

5

L 1

59

71

Nov 22

A

Lavrio B.C.

W

91

81

1

4

W 1

92

78

Nov 14

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

67

77

0

4

L 3

68

82

Nov 7

A

Messolonghi

L

66

79

0

3

L 2

66

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kolossos Rhodes (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kolossos Rhodes will expected to score 76 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Kolossos Rhodes

Ionikos Nikaias

FG%

0.53

0.50

ASS

16.20

13.70

DRB

24.10

22.60

AST-TO

1.14

1.01

TRB

30.90

32.20

FTM

14.10

11.20

BL

1.40

1.60

FTA

19.80

15.40

PF-Fewer

22.80

21.40

ST

6.10

7.00

TO-Fewer

14.20

13.60

Ftper

0.71

0.73

ORBper

0.28

0.42

ORB

6.80

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aris vs Peristeri at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

2.6

2.76

Peristeri

1.5

1.57

Aris HC

+4.5

4.50

Peristeri HC

-4.5

-4.50

Point Line

149.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

64

68

3

6

L 3

62

69

Dec 26

H

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

84

3

5

L 2

74

85

Dec 20

A

AEK Athens

L

67

84

3

4

L 1

72

79

Dec 16

A

Larisa

W

88

84

3

3

W 1

82

84

Dec 13

A

P.A.O.K.

L

64

75

2

3

L 2

60

74

Dec 9

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

92

2

2

L 1

72

88

Dec 5

H

Promitheas Patras

W

94

83

2

1

W 2

90

83

Nov 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

81

75

1

1

W 1

83

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

67

6

4

W 1

71

66

Dec 26

A

Promitheas Patras

L

58

75

5

4

L 1

56

75

Dec 19

H

Larisa

W

82

78

5

3

W 1

77

78

Dec 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

57

76

4

3

L 2

64

68

Dec 5

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

4

2

L 1

71

75

Nov 22

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

75

71

4

1

W 2

76

76

Nov 15

H

Messolonghi

W

84

72

3

1

W 1

84

77

Nov 7

H

AEK Athens

L

62

66

2

1

L 1

66

62

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 73 points and the Peristeri 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 149.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

Peristeri

FG%

0.53

0.48

ASS

12.40

14.90

DRB

21.80

24.60

AST-TO

0.87

1.14

TRB

29.80

32.70

FTM

17.40

16.60

BL

2.20

2.50

FTA

23.00

21.80

PF-Fewer

20.70

20.20

ST

8.30

5.50

TO-Fewer

14.30

13.10

Ftper

0.76

0.76

ORBper

0.37

0.33

ORB

8.00

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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PAOK vs Mesologgi BC at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Mesologgi BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

PAOK

1.29

1.32

Mesologgi BC

3.65

4.08

PAOK HC

-8.5

-7.00

Mesologgi BC HC

+8.5

7.00

Point Line

151.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Peristeri

L

67

76

4

6

L 1

69

79

Dec 27

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

84

4

5

W 3

84

85

Dec 19

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

85

84

3

5

W 2

85

85

Dec 13

H

Aris

W

75

64

2

5

W 1

71

65

Dec 9

H

Larisa

L

91

93

1

5

L 3

85

93

Dec 5

A

AEK Athens

L

84

85

1

4

L 2

90

80

Nov 21

A

Promitheas Patras

L

80

83

1

3

L 1

77

83

Nov 18

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

83

65

1

2

W 1

84

62

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

H

Promitheas Patras

L

82

88

3

7

L 7

79

88

Dec 27

A

Larisa

L

58

84

3

6

L 6

54

84

Dec 20

H

Panathinaikos

L

66

73

3

5

L 5

74

66

Dec 12

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

87

3

4

L 4

71

84

Dec 5

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

68

71

3

3

L 3

69

76

Nov 21

H

AEK Athens

L

66

87

3

2

L 2

70

82

Nov 15

A

Peristeri

L

72

84

3

1

L 1

74

88

Nov 7

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

79

66

3

0

W 2

77

67

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by PAOK (in the first graph) and by Mesologgi BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, PAOK will expected to score 78 points and the Mesologgi BC 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

PAOK

Mesologgi BC

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

15.30

14.20

DRB

21.60

23.30

AST-TO

1.12

0.90

TRB

29.20

30.10

FTM

13.90

13.00

BL

2.20

1.70

FTA

18.70

18.00

PF-Fewer

23.60

19.10

ST

8.60

5.10

TO-Fewer

13.70

15.80

Ftper

0.74

0.72

ORBper

0.35

0.29

ORB

7.60

6.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Promitheas vs Iraklis at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Iraklis for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

1.28

1.37

Iraklis

3.7

3.69

Promitheas HC

-7.5

-6.50

Iraklis HC

+7.5

6.50

Point Line

154.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

A

Larisa

L

81

85

4

3

L 1

76

85

Jan 3

A

Messolonghi

W

88

82

4

2

W 2

88

88

Dec 26

H

Peristeri

W

75

58

3

2

W 1

77

61

Dec 19

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

77

86

2

2

L 1

75

87

Dec 13

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

69

67

2

1

W 1

69

68

Dec 5

A

Aris

L

83

94

1

1

L 1

79

96

Nov 21

H

P.A.O.K.

W

83

80

1

0

W 0

78

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

H

Larisa

W

73

69

5

5

W 1

68

69

Dec 27

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

106

4

5

L 3

83

95

Dec 19

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

60

77

4

4

L 2

61

74

Dec 12

H

AEK Athens

L

72

79

4

3

L 1

77

74

Dec 5

A

Messolonghi

W

71

68

4

2

W 1

71

73

Nov 22

H

Peristeri

L

71

75

3

2

L 1

73

78

Nov 18

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

66

65

3

1

W 2

66

66

Nov 14

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

77

67

2

1

W 1

75

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by Iraklis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 76 points and the Iraklis 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 152.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

Iraklis

FG%

0.52

0.51

ASS

15.70

14.30

DRB

23.00

25.40

AST-TO

1.31

1.01

TRB

30.10

32.70

FTM

16.00

14.50

BL

4.30

2.30

FTA

23.70

20.20

PF-Fewer

19.00

21.80

ST

7.10

5.30

TO-Fewer

12.00

14.10

Ftper

0.68

0.72

ORBper

0.31

0.29

ORB

7.10

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and AEK Athens for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

1.22

1.54

AEK Athens

4.35

2.86

Panathinaikos HC

-9.5

-4.50

AEK Athens HC

+9.5

4.50

Point Line

154.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

82

92

7

1

L 1

83

88

Dec 27

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

106

74

7

0

W 6

108

79

Dec 20

A

Messolonghi

W

73

66

6

0

W 5

73

70

Dec 13

H

Peristeri

W

76

57

5

0

W 4

78

60

Dec 6

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

79

53

4

0

W 3

77

54