2021 01 08 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aquila Basket Trento vs Virtus Bologna at 09 January 2021
Sassari vs Cantu at 10 January 2021
Vanoli Cremona vs Olimpia Milano at 10 January 2021
Fortitudo Bologna vs Trieste at 10 January 2021
Reyer Venezia vs Reggiana at 10 January 2021
Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Brescia at 10 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Aquila Basket Trento vs Virtus Bologna at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aquila Basket Trento and Virtus Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aquila Basket Trento

3.5

3.98

Virtus Bologna

1.3

1.34

Aquila Basket Trento HC

+7.5

7.00

Virtus Bologna HC

-7.5

-7.00

Point Line

157.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Enel Brindisi

L

73

74

6

7

L 2

75

68

Dec 20

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

82

92

6

6

L 1

85

98

Dec 13

H

Red October Cantu

W

74

73

6

5

W 2

75

76

Dec 6

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

79

71

5

5

W 1

84

72

Nov 22

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

77

4

5

L 1

70

77

Nov 15

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

80

73

4

4

W 2

79

74

Nov 7

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

92

78

3

4

W 1

88

69

Nov 1

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

75

82

2

4

L 1

83

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 30

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

80

8

5

W 1

101

78

Dec 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

68

73

7

5

L 1

75

65

Dec 20

A

Universo Treviso

W

98

72

7

4

W 2

87

68

Dec 13

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

77

60

6

4

W 1

80

64

Dec 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

78

83

5

4

L 1

75

73

Nov 22

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

91

71

5

3

W 1

89

72

Nov 7

H

Enel Brindisi

L

88

98

4

3

L 1

90

90

Nov 1

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

83

68

4

2

W 2

88

69

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aquila Basket Trento (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aquila Basket Trento will expected to score 76 points and the Virtus Bologna 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aquila Basket Trento

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.51

0.54

ASS

15.50

21.80

DRB

22.20

25.30

AST-TO

1.31

1.54

TRB

31.60

34.60

FTM

11.20

13.20

BL

1.80

2.80

FTA

16.10

18.20

PF-Fewer

20.20

20.50

ST

7.80

8.80

TO-Fewer

11.80

14.20

Ftper

0.69

0.72

ORBper

0.42

0.37

ORB

9.40

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Sassari vs Cantu at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassari and Cantu for Serie A, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Sassari

1.16

1.58

Cantu

5.25

2.74

Sassari HC

-11.5

-4.50

Cantu HC

+11.5

4.50

Point Line

166.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

78

9

5

W 3

88

82

Dec 27

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

100

87

8

5

W 2

99

89

Dec 23

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

75

7

5

W 1

90

71

Dec 20

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

86

102

6

5

L 1

95

91

Dec 13

H

Universo Treviso

W

97

93

6

4

W 2

86

88

Dec 6

A

Virtus Bologna

W

83

78

5

4

W 1

87

74

Nov 15

H

Enel Brindisi

L

87

100

4

4

L 2

89

92

Nov 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

78

92

4

3

L 1

80

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

67

80

5

9

L 1

66

81

Dec 26

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

78

68

5

8

W 1

81

71

Dec 20

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

92

4

8

L 1

88

94

Dec 16

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

73

67

4

7

W 1

76

71

Dec 13

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

74

3

7

L 3

75

76

Dec 9

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

101

3

6

L 2

63

96

Dec 6

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

85

3

5

L 1

73

78

Nov 22

H

Virtus Roma

W

101

85

3

4

W 1

92

107

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cantu.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cantu and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Sassari (in the first graph) and by Cantu in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Sassari will expected to score 86 points and the Cantu 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Sassari

Cantu

FG%

0.58

0.52

ASS

18.60

16.90

DRB

25.40

25.50

AST-TO

1.27

1.34

TRB

33.30

32.60

FTM

18.40

13.00

BL

2.20

3.40

FTA

23.70

17.90

PF-Fewer

19.20

17.10

ST

7.70

5.10

TO-Fewer

14.70

12.60

Ftper

0.78

0.73

ORBper

0.31

0.28

ORB

7.90

7.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Vanoli Cremona vs Olimpia Milano at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vanoli Cremona and Olimpia Milano for Serie A, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Vanoli Cremona

6.75

2.95

Olimpia Milano

1.11

1.51

Vanoli Cremona HC

+13.5

5.00

Olimpia Milano HC

-13.5

-5.00

Point Line

164.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

89

85

6

7

W 2

88

86

Dec 27

H

Enel Brindisi

W

96

94

5

7

W 1

99

87

Dec 23

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

75

95

4

7

L 3

72

84

Dec 20

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

71

85

4

6

L 2

70

86

Dec 16

A

Universo Treviso

L

90

101

4

5

L 1

80

96

Dec 9

H

Red October Cantu

W

101

67

4

4

W 2

102

70

Dec 6

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

56

3

4

W 1

88

59

Nov 1

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

83

95

2

4

L 2

84

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

97

93

13

1

W 3

98

91

Dec 27

A

Virtus Bologna

W

73

68

12

1

W 2

76

65

Dec 20

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

102

86

11

1

W 1

98

76

Dec 13

H

Enel Brindisi

L

82

88

10

1

L 1

84

81

Dec 6

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

96

70

10

0

W 9

91

70

Nov 22

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

86

72

9

0

W 8

91

73

Nov 15

A

Red October Cantu

W

89

71

8

0

W 7

90

74

Nov 8

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

87

56

7

0

W 6

86

57

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Vanoli Cremona (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Vanoli Cremona will expected to score 79 points and the Olimpia Milano 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Vanoli Cremona

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.51

0.57

ASS

15.40

18.90

DRB

26.20

26.10

AST-TO

1.54

1.99

TRB

34.80

34.20

FTM

14.80

15.60

BL

2.50

2.90

FTA

19.60

18.80

PF-Fewer

19.20

18.70

ST

5.20

7.00

TO-Fewer

10.00

9.50

Ftper

0.75

0.83

ORBper

0.33

0.31

ORB

8.60

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fortitudo Bologna vs Trieste at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fortitudo Bologna and Trieste for Serie A, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fortitudo Bologna

1.29

1.44

Trieste

3.65

3.28

Fortitudo Bologna HC

-8.5

-6.00

Trieste HC

+8.5

6.00

Point Line

156.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

A

Red October Cantu

W

80

67

5

9

W 3

81

70

Dec 27

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

76

72

4

9

W 2

81

73

Dec 20

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

85

71

3

9

W 1

80

67

Dec 16

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

69

79

2

9

L 1

72

83

Dec 12

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

70

2

8

W 1

79

68

Dec 5

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

85

99

1

8

L 6

84

101

Nov 22

H

Virtus Bologna

L

71

91

1

7

L 5

74

87

Nov 7

H

Universo Treviso

L

87

98

1

6

L 4

77

93

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Trieste are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

78

69

5

7

W 2

81

72

Dec 30

H

Universo Treviso

W

84

79

4

7

W 1

74

75

Dec 27

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

74

84

3

7

L 2

75

82

Dec 23

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

66

81

3

6

L 1

70

83

Dec 20

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

92

82

3

5

W 1

94

84

Dec 16

A

Red October Cantu

L

67

73

2

5

L 5

68

76

Dec 13

H

Virtus Bologna

L

60

77

2

4

L 4

63

73

Oct 25

H

Enel Brindisi

L

76

79

2

3

L 3

78

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Trieste.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Trieste and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fortitudo Bologna (in the first graph) and by Trieste in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fortitudo Bologna will expected to score 78 points and the Trieste 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fortitudo Bologna

Trieste

FG%

0.52

0.51

ASS

17.10

17.70

DRB

24.10

26.90

AST-TO

1.41

1.25

TRB

32.70

34.50

FTM

13.10

9.60

BL

3.50

2.60

FTA

18.80

14.40

PF-Fewer

18.40

17.90

ST

8.30

6.70

TO-Fewer

12.10

14.20

Ftper

0.70

0.66

ORBper

0.36

0.28

ORB

8.60

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Reyer Venezia vs Reggiana at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reyer Venezia and Reggiana for Serie A, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reyer Venezia

1.38

2.56

Reggiana

3.1

1.64

Reyer Venezia HC

-6.5

3.50

Reggiana HC

+6.5

-3.50

Point Line

154.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Universo Treviso

W

88

86

8

6

W 1

78

82

Dec 27

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

72

76

7

6

L 1

70

77

Dec 23

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

66

7

5

W 2

84

70

Dec 20

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

86

77

6

5

W 1

82

77

Dec 13