# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Celta vs Villarreal at 08 January 2021**** Sevilla vs Sociedad at 09 January 2021**** Osasuna vs Real Madrid at 09 January 2021**** Granada vs Barcelona at 09 January 2021**** Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao at 09 January 2021**** Levante vs Eibar at 10 January 2021**** Valladolid vs Valencia at 10 January 2021**** Elche vs Getafe at 10 January 2021**** Cadiz vs Alaves at 10 January 2021**** Huesca vs Betis at 11 January 2021**

###
Celta vs Villarreal at 08 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Celta** and **Villarreal** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **08 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Celta |
3.26 |
2.20 |
14.8 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.73 |
-3.5 |

Villarreal |
2.33 |
3.60 |
-15.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.05 |
1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.95 |
-6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Celta, Over 2.5 (14.8 %, 1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Celta** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Celta** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance** at home**.

Celta,** at home**, had 5 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Huesca |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Dec |
Cadiz |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

04 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Granada |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Sevilla |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Villarreal** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Villarreal** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance** as a guest**.

Villarreal,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Levante |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Elche |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Celta** and the red line for guest team, **Villarreal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Celta |
22% |
35% |
21% |
21% |

Villarreal |
32% |
37% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Celta** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Villarreal** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Celta** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Villarreal** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Celta ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.34 |
3.74 |
3.28 |

2-3 goals |
2.22 |
3.69 |
3.58 |

4+ goals |
2.04 |
3.80 |
4.05 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.73 |
3.73 |

Un 1.5 |
2.34 |
3.74 |
3.28 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
7.52 |
3.18 |

Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
2.52 |
4.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.80 |
4.05 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.71 |
3.47 |

Goal-Goal |
2.63 |
2.68 |
4.06 |

No Goal |
1.87 |
6.60 |
3.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.09 |
3.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.60 |
3.06 |

####
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###
Sevilla vs Sociedad at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sevilla** and **Sociedad** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **09 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sevilla |
2.24 |
2.17 |
1.4 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.76 |
-4.9 |

Sociedad |
3.65 |
3.65 |
0.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
1.94 |
8.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.07 |
-12.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sevilla, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 8.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sevilla** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sevilla** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance** at home**.

Sevilla,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Celta |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Sociedad** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sociedad** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance** as a guest**.

Sociedad,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sevilla** and the red line for guest team, **Sociedad. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sevilla |
21% |
32% |
25% |
22% |

Sociedad |
27% |
44% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sevilla** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Sociedad** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Sevilla ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sevilla** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Sociedad** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Sevilla ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.20 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.76 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.68 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
1.75 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.76 |

NoG |
2.34 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
4.10 |
2.53 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.58 |
4.04 |

4+ goals |
1.91 |
3.80 |
4.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.04 |
3.65 |
4.24 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
4.10 |
2.53 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.37 |
3.71 |

Un 2.5 |
3.17 |
2.46 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.91 |
3.80 |
4.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.73 |
3.39 |

Goal-Goal |
2.32 |
2.74 |
4.90 |

No Goal |
2.01 |
7.38 |
2.73 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.20 |
3.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
7.38 |
2.56 |

####
Go to Top

###
Osasuna vs Real Madrid at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Osasuna** and **Real Madrid** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **09 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Osasuna |
6.85 |
2.72 |
22.2 |

Draw |
4.54 |
3.80 |
4.3 |

Real Madrid |
1.48 |
2.71 |
-30.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.88 |
-6.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.14 |
1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Osasuna, Draw, Under 2.5 (22.2 %, 4.3 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Osasuna** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Osasuna** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance** at home**.

Osasuna,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Elche |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Valladolid |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Betis |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Barcelona |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Nov |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Real Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Real Madrid** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance** as a guest**.

Real Madrid,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Celta |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Elche |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Granada |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Eibar |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Osasuna** and the red line for guest team, **Real Madrid. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Osasuna |
26% |
32% |
26% |
16% |

Real Madrid |
25% |
35% |
23% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Osasuna** to score **0.69 ** goals and **Real Madrid** to score **2.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and the guest team **Real Madrid ** to win by **1.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Osasuna** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Real Madrid** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.31 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.53 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.31 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.53 |

NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.01 |
3.62 |
2.55 |

2-3 goals |
2.47 |
4.40 |
2.72 |

4+ goals |
2.98 |
3.22 |
2.83 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.87 |
2.76 |

Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
3.62 |
2.55 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
6.06 |
2.44 |

Un 2.5 |
3.30 |
2.68 |
3.09 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.98 |
3.22 |
2.83 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
4.11 |
2.66 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.82 |
3.23 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
6.89 |
2.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.09 |
2.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
6.89 |
2.36 |

####
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###
Granada vs Barcelona at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Granada** and **Barcelona** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **09 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Granada |
6.53 |
2.52 |
24.4 |

Draw |
4.79 |
3.76 |
5.7 |

Barcelona |
1.47 |
2.97 |
-34.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.98 |
-14.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.02 |
8.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Granada, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.4 %, 5.7 %, 8.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Granada** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Granada scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Granada** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Granada scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Granada’s performance** at home**.

Granada,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Granada** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Granada was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Eibar |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Betis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Elche |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Huesca |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Celta |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Barcelona** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barcelona** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance** as a guest**.

Barcelona,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Valladolid |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Levante |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Granada** and the red line for guest team, **Barcelona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Granada |
25% |
34% |
23% |
18% |

Barcelona |
29% |
34% |
22% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Granada** to score **0.76 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **2.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.07** goals in the game and the guest team **Barcelona ** to win by **1.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Granada** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
3.82 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.82 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |