2021 01 08 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Celta vs Villarreal at 08 January 2021
Sevilla vs Sociedad at 09 January 2021
Osasuna vs Real Madrid at 09 January 2021
Granada vs Barcelona at 09 January 2021
Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao at 09 January 2021
Levante vs Eibar at 10 January 2021
Valladolid vs Valencia at 10 January 2021
Elche vs Getafe at 10 January 2021
Cadiz vs Alaves at 10 January 2021
Huesca vs Betis at 11 January 2021


Celta vs Villarreal at 08 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Celta and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 08 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Celta

3.26

2.20

14.8

Draw

3.30

3.73

-3.5

Villarreal

2.33

3.60

-15.1

Over 2.5

2.12

2.05

1.6

Under 2.5

1.74

1.95

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Celta, Over 2.5 (14.8 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Celta in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance at home.
Celta, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Huesca

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Alaves

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Dec

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

04 Dec

Ath Bilbao

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Granada

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Sevilla

A

2

4

L

O

G


Villarreal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance as a guest.
Villarreal, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Levante

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Sevilla

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Elche

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Real Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Celta

22%

35%

21%

21%

Villarreal

32%

37%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 1.04 goals and Villarreal to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.42 goals and Villarreal to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Celta to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.72

1

5.08

2-3

2.05

2

4.08

4+

4.05

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.72

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.34

3.74

3.28

2-3 goals

2.22

3.69

3.58

4+ goals

2.04

3.80

4.05

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.73

3.73

Un 1.5

2.34

3.74

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.81

7.52

3.18

Un 2.5

2.78

2.52

4.11

Ov 3.5

2.04

3.80

4.05

Un 3.5

2.26

3.71

3.47

Goal-Goal

2.63

2.68

4.06

No Goal

1.87

6.60

3.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

6.09

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.60

3.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sevilla vs Sociedad at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Sociedad for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sevilla

2.24

2.17

1.4

Draw

3.17

3.76

-4.9

Sociedad

3.65

3.65

0.0

Over 2.5

2.30

1.94

8.1

Under 2.5

1.65

2.07

-12.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sevilla, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sevilla in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Villarreal

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Celta

H

4

2

W

O

G


Sociedad in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance as a guest.
Sociedad, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Osasuna

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Dec

Ath Bilbao

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Ath Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Levante

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Barcelona

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Alaves

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Sociedad.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sevilla

21%

32%

25%

22%

Sociedad

27%

44%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.3 goals and Sociedad to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.48 goals and Sociedad to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.20

1

5.56

2-3

2.01

2

4.05

4+

3.76

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.20

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.75

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

2.34

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

4.10

2.53

2-3 goals

2.11

3.58

4.04

4+ goals

1.91

3.80

4.67

Ov 1.5

2.04

3.65

4.24

Un 1.5

2.77

4.10

2.53

Ov 2.5

1.68

7.37

3.71

Un 2.5

3.17

2.46

3.59

Ov 3.5

1.91

3.80

4.67

Un 3.5

2.29

3.73

3.39

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.74

4.90

No Goal

2.01

7.38

2.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.76

6.20

3.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

7.38

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Osasuna vs Real Madrid at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Osasuna and Real Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Osasuna

6.85

2.72

22.2

Draw

4.54

3.80

4.3

Real Madrid

1.48

2.71

-30.7

Over 2.5

1.69

1.88

-6.0

Under 2.5

2.20

2.14

1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Osasuna, Draw, Under 2.5 (22.2 %, 4.3 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Osasuna in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance at home.
Osasuna, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Dec

Alaves

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Elche

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Villarreal

H

1

3

L

O

G

11 Dec

Valladolid

A

2

3

L

O

G

06 Dec

Betis

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Barcelona

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Nov

Huesca

H

1

1

D

U

G


Real Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Real Madrid, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Celta

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Granada

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Eibar

A

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Ath Madrid

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Alaves

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Osasuna and the red line for guest team, Real Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Osasuna

26%

32%

26%

16%

Real Madrid

25%

35%

23%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Osasuna to score 0.69 goals and Real Madrid to score 2.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the guest team Real Madrid to win by 1.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.33 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.31

1

5.95

2-3

2.07

2

4.27

4+

3.53

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.31

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.15

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

2.27

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

3.62

2.55

2-3 goals

2.47

4.40

2.72

4+ goals

2.98

3.22

2.83

Ov 1.5

2.64

3.87

2.76

Un 1.5

3.01

3.62

2.55

Ov 2.5

2.35

6.06

2.44

Un 2.5

3.30

2.68

3.09

Ov 3.5

2.98

3.22

2.83

Un 3.5

2.62

4.11

2.66

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.82

3.23

No Goal

2.44

6.89

2.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.09

2.59

NG+Un 2.5

2.52

6.89

2.36


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Granada vs Barcelona at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Granada and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Granada

6.53

2.52

24.4

Draw

4.79

3.76

5.7

Barcelona

1.47

2.97

-34.4

Over 2.5

1.53

1.98

-14.9

Under 2.5

2.45

2.02

8.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Granada, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.4 %, 5.7 %, 8.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Granada in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Granada in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Granada’s performance at home.
Granada, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Granada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Eibar

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Dec

Betis

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Elche

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Huesca

H

3

3

D

O

G

29 Nov

Celta

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Nov

Valladolid

H

1

3

L

O

G


Barcelona in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance as a guest.
Barcelona, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

3

2

W

O

G

03 Jan

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Valladolid

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Valencia

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Granada and the red line for guest team, Barcelona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Granada

25%

34%

23%

18%

Barcelona

29%

34%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Granada to score 0.76 goals and Barcelona to score 2.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and the guest team Barcelona to win by 1.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Granada to score 1.34 goals and Barcelona to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.89

1

5.43

2-3

2.08

2

4.20

4+

3.82

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.89

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals