2021 01 08 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Charlton vs Accrington at 08 January 2021
Ipswich vs Swindon at 09 January 2021
Lincoln vs Peterboro at 09 January 2021
Gillingham vs Burton at 09 January 2021
Rochdale vs Crewe at 09 January 2021


Charlton vs Accrington at 08 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Charlton and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 08 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Charlton

2.45

2.48

-0.5

Draw

3.25

3.75

-4.1

Accrington

2.98

3.05

-0.8

Over 2.5

2.17

2.01

3.7

Under 2.5

1.71

1.99

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Charlton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance at home.
Charlton, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Plymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Swindon

A

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

H

5

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Shrewsbury

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Ipswich

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Burton

A

2

4

L

O

G


Accrington in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Blackpool

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Wigan

A

3

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Shrewsbury

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Crewe

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Lincoln

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Nov

Swindon

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Charlton and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Charlton

26%

31%

25%

18%

Accrington

28%

37%

23%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.23 goals and Accrington to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.34 goals and Accrington to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.91

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.97

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.94

3.51

2.67

2-3 goals

2.33

4.27

2.98

4+ goals

2.40

3.15

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.35

3.81

3.20

Un 1.5

2.94

3.51

2.67

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.21

2.91

Un 2.5

3.20

2.67

3.20

Ov 3.5

2.40

3.15

3.76

Un 3.5

2.51

3.97

2.86

Goal-Goal

2.70

2.73

3.80

No Goal

2.27

6.40

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.12

5.21

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

6.40

2.46


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Ipswich vs Swindon at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ipswich and Swindon for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ipswich

1.88

2.00

-3.2

Draw

3.69

3.76

-0.5

Swindon

4.00

4.26

-1.5

Over 2.5

1.78

2.21

-10.9

Under 2.5

2.03

1.83

5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ipswich in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance at home.
Ipswich, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Burton

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Portsmouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Plymouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Oxford

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Hull

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Shrewsbury

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Sunderland

A

1

2

L

O

G


Swindon in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance as a guest.
Swindon, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

4

L

O

G

19 Dec

Charlton

H

2

2

D

O

G

15 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Gillingham

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Crewe

A

2

4

L

O

G

28 Nov

Oxford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ipswich and the red line for guest team, Swindon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ipswich

18%

38%

26%

18%

Swindon

38%

35%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.7 goals and Swindon to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.43 goals and Swindon to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.56

1

4.74

2-3

1.96

2

3.76

4+

4.76

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.56

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.91

4.01

4.39

2-3 goals

1.97

3.77

4.39

4+ goals

2.23

3.44

3.82

Ov 1.5

2.04

3.67

4.20

Un 1.5

1.91

4.01

4.39

Ov 2.5

1.79

7.43

3.26

Un 2.5

2.22

2.67

5.70

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.44

3.82

Un 3.5

1.95

3.85

4.39

Goal-Goal

2.73

2.57

4.09

No Goal

1.58

7.10

4.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

6.03

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

1.67

7.10

4.29


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Lincoln vs Peterboro at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Peterboro for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lincoln

2.32

2.15

3.4

Draw

3.36

3.82

-3.6

Peterboro

3.06

3.66

-5.4

Over 2.5

2.07

2.04

0.7

Under 2.5

1.77

1.96

-5.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lincoln, Over 2.5 (3.4 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lincoln in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Burton

H

5

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Northampton

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Sunderland

H

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N


Peterboro in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance as a guest.
Peterboro, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Rochdale

H

4

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Plymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Blackpool

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Crewe

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lincoln

22%

32%

27%

19%

Peterboro

34%

36%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.31 goals and Peterboro to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.43 goals and Peterboro to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.82

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

4.02

4+

4.12

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.82

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.49

3.36

2-3 goals

1.95

4.35

3.88

4+ goals

2.36

3.28

3.68

Ov 1.5

2.07

3.93

3.81

Un 1.5

2.40

3.49

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.86

6.62

3.22

Un 2.5

2.53

2.70

4.26

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.28

3.68

Un 3.5

2.09

4.01

3.68

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.74

4.03

No Goal

1.82

6.47

3.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.43

3.14

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

6.47

3.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Gillingham vs Burton at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gillingham and Burton for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gillingham

2.25

2.38

-2.4

Draw

3.44

3.61

-1.4

Burton

3.14

3.29

-1.5

Over 2.5

1.89

2.17

-6.8

Under 2.5

1.93

1.86

1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Gillingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance at home.
Gillingham, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Northampton

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Rochdale

A

4

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Accrington

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Swindon

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Bristol Rvs

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

1

W

O

G


Burton in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance as a guest.
Burton, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Oxford

H

1

5

L

O

G

29 Dec

Wigan

H

3

4

L

O

G

26 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

5

L

O

G

19 Dec

Doncaster

H

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Ipswich

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gillingham and the red line for guest team, Burton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Gillingham

23%

37%

23%

16%

Burton

32%

36%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.43 goals and Burton to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.31 goals and Burton to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.58

1

4.90

2-3

1.99

2

3.83

4+

4.55

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.58

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.34

3.72