Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Cambridge vs Harrogate at 09 January 2021
Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 09 January 2021
Port Vale vs Grimsby at 09 January 2021
Salford vs Colchester at 09 January 2021
Scunthorpe vs Bradford at 09 January 2021
Southend vs Barrow at 09 January 2021
Cambridge vs Harrogate at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Cambridge and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cambridge |
2.34 |
2.41 |
-1.2 |
|
Draw |
3.26 |
3.64 |
-3.2 |
|
Harrogate |
3.16 |
3.23 |
-0.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.17 |
-0.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.85 |
-4.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cambridge in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance at home.
Cambridge, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cambridge and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cambridge |
25% |
35% |
24% |
16% |
|
Harrogate |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.28 goals and Harrogate to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.3 goals and Harrogate to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.52 |
|
1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.50 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.54 |
3.55 |
3.09 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.83 |
3.23 |
|
4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.36 |
3.42 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.36 |
3.67 |
3.28 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.55 |
3.09 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.97 |
2.77 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
2.58 |
3.75 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.36 |
3.42 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.40 |
3.72 |
3.18 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.87 |
2.62 |
3.70 |
|
No Goal |
2.06 |
6.11 |
2.84 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.79 |
2.77 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.11 |
2.85 |
Go to Top
Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Carlisle |
1.78 |
2.25 |
-11.7 |
|
Draw |
3.78 |
3.66 |
0.9 |
|
Leyton Orient |
4.44 |
3.55 |
5.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.14 |
-5.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.88 |
0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Leyton Orient, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 5.6 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Carlisle in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Carlisle |
22% |
36% |
23% |
18% |
|
Leyton Orient |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.68 goals and Leyton Orient to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.37 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.64 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.41 |
|
3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.77 |
3.31 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.24 |
3.69 |
3.53 |
|
4+ goals |
2.16 |
3.49 |
3.98 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.63 |
3.66 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.77 |
3.31 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
7.22 |
3.07 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.55 |
4.15 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.49 |
3.98 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.72 |
3.45 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.73 |
2.61 |
3.98 |
|
No Goal |
1.87 |
6.55 |
3.19 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.95 |
2.95 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.55 |
3.09 |
Go to Top
Port Vale vs Grimsby at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Port Vale |
2.04 |
2.24 |
-4.4 |
|
Draw |
3.56 |
3.69 |
-1.0 |
|
Grimsby |
3.53 |
3.56 |
-0.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.07 |
-3.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.93 |
-1.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Port Vale in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Bolton |
A |
6 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Southend |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Port Vale |
21% |
38% |
22% |
20% |
|
Grimsby |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.49 goals and Grimsby to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Port Vale to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.4 goals and Grimsby to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Port Vale to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.77 |
|
1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.18 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.96 |
3.44 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.32 |
3.56 |
3.46 |
|
4+ goals |
2.13 |
3.68 |
3.85 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.60 |
3.58 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.96 |
3.44 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
7.42 |
2.98 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.51 |
4.31 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.68 |
3.85 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.69 |
3.45 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.63 |
3.83 |
|
No Goal |
1.82 |
6.91 |
3.26 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.11 |
2.84 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.91 |
3.15 |
Go to Top
Salford vs Colchester at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Salford |
1.77 |
2.21 |
-11.2 |
|
Draw |
3.82 |
3.72 |
0.7 |
|
Colchester |
4.45 |
3.60 |
5.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.10 |
-5.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.91 |
0.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Colchester, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 5.3 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Colchester in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Salford |
23% |
33% |
26% |
18% |
|
Colchester |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.69 goals and Colchester to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.39 goals and Colchester to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.72 |
|
1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.37 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.59 |
3.16 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.07 |