2021 01 08 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cambridge vs Harrogate at 09 January 2021
Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 09 January 2021
Port Vale vs Grimsby at 09 January 2021
Salford vs Colchester at 09 January 2021
Scunthorpe vs Bradford at 09 January 2021
Southend vs Barrow at 09 January 2021


Cambridge vs Harrogate at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cambridge and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cambridge

2.34

2.41

-1.2

Draw

3.26

3.64

-3.2

Harrogate

3.16

3.23

-0.7

Over 2.5

2.15

2.17

-0.4

Under 2.5

1.71

1.85

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cambridge in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance at home.
Cambridge, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Stevenage

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Bradford

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Colchester

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Forest Green

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Mansfield

H

0

1

L

U

N


Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Oldham

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Exeter

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

2

5

L

O

G

24 Nov

Mansfield

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Leyton Orient

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cambridge and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cambridge

25%

35%

24%

16%

Harrogate

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.28 goals and Harrogate to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.3 goals and Harrogate to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.52

1

4.90

2-3

2.02

2

3.91

4+

4.50

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.52

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.55

3.09

2-3 goals

2.33

3.83

3.23

4+ goals

2.44

3.36

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.36

3.67

3.28

Un 1.5

2.54

3.55

3.09

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.97

2.77

Un 2.5

2.89

2.58

3.75

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.36

3.42

Un 3.5

2.40

3.72

3.18

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.62

3.70

No Goal

2.06

6.11

2.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.79

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

6.11

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

1.78

2.25

-11.7

Draw

3.78

3.66

0.9

Leyton Orient

4.44

3.55

5.6

Over 2.5

1.90

2.14

-5.9

Under 2.5

1.90

1.88

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Leyton Orient, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 5.6 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Walsall

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Bolton

H

3

3

D

O

G

19 Dec

Forest Green

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Stevenage

H

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Bradford

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Tranmere

A

0

1

L

U

N


Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Southend

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Crawley Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Morecambe

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Port Vale

A

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

22%

36%

23%

18%

Leyton Orient

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.68 goals and Leyton Orient to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.37 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.64

1

4.95

2-3

2.01

2

3.91

4+

4.41

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.64

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.77

3.31

2-3 goals

2.24

3.69

3.53

4+ goals

2.16

3.49

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.63

3.66

Un 1.5

2.31

3.77

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.87

7.22

3.07

Un 2.5

2.72

2.55

4.15

Ov 3.5

2.16

3.49

3.98

Un 3.5

2.27

3.72

3.45

Goal-Goal

2.73

2.61

3.98

No Goal

1.87

6.55

3.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.95

2.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

6.55

3.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Port Vale vs Grimsby at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Port Vale

2.04

2.24

-4.4

Draw

3.56

3.69

-1.0

Grimsby

3.53

3.56

-0.2

Over 2.5

1.95

2.07

-3.0

Under 2.5

1.86

1.93

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Port Vale in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Mansfield

A

0

4

L

O

N

29 Dec

Bradford

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Barrow

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Walsall

A

3

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Forest Green

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Colchester

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Bolton

A

6

3

W

O

G

28 Nov

Leyton Orient

H

2

3

L

O

G


Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Cambridge

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Oldham

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Southend

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Dec

Newport County

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Port Vale

21%

38%

22%

20%

Grimsby

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.49 goals and Grimsby to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Port Vale to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.4 goals and Grimsby to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Port Vale to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.77

1

5.05

2-3

2.02

2

3.97

4+

4.18

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.77

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.19

3.96

3.44

2-3 goals

2.32

3.56

3.46

4+ goals

2.13

3.68

3.85

Ov 1.5

2.26

3.60

3.58

Un 1.5

2.19

3.96

3.44

Ov 2.5

1.89

7.42

2.98

Un 2.5

2.71

2.51

4.31

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.68

3.85

Un 3.5

2.28

3.69

3.45

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.63

3.83

No Goal

1.82

6.91

3.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

6.11

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

6.91

3.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Salford vs Colchester at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

1.77

2.21

-11.2

Draw

3.82

3.72

0.7

Colchester

4.45

3.60

5.3

Over 2.5

1.89

2.10

-5.3

Under 2.5

1.93

1.91

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Colchester, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 5.3 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Jan

Mansfield

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Walsall

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Cheltenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Barrow

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Carlisle

A

1

2

L

O

G


Colchester in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Cheltenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Southend

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Morecambe

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Port Vale

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Grimsby

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

23%

33%

26%

18%

Colchester

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.69 goals and Colchester to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.39 goals and Colchester to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.72

1

5.15

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.37

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.72

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.59

3.16

2-3 goals

2.07