2021 01 08 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reims vs St Etienne at 09 January 2021
Rennes vs Lyon at 09 January 2021
Paris SG vs Brest at 09 January 2021
Nimes vs Lille at 09 January 2021
Monaco vs Angers at 09 January 2021
Metz vs Nice at 09 January 2021
Lens vs Strasbourg at 09 January 2021
Dijon vs Marseille at 09 January 2021
Bordeaux vs Lorient at 09 January 2021
Montpellier vs Nantes at 09 January 2021


Reims vs St Etienne at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and St Etienne for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

2.71

2.36

5.5

Draw

3.16

3.51

-3.2

St Etienne

2.83

3.42

-6.1

Over 2.5

2.37

2.56

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.62

1.64

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims (5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Dijon

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Bordeaux

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Nantes

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Dec

Brest

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Nice

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Nimes

H

0

1

L

U

N


St Etienne in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance as a guest.
St Etienne, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Paris SG

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Monaco

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Nimes

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Bordeaux

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Dec

Dijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Brest

A

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, St Etienne.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

27%

37%

25%

11%

St Etienne

38%

36%

14%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 1.11 goals and St Etienne to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.2 goals and St Etienne to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

2.92

1

4.18

2-3

2.07

2

3.76

4+

5.68

3

4.63

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.47

Un 1.5

2.92

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.55

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

5.68

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.45

3.30

3.46

2-3 goals

2.12

3.62

3.95

4+ goals

3.14

3.67

2.44

Ov 1.5

2.33

3.64

3.39

Un 1.5

2.45

3.30

3.46

Ov 2.5

2.09

8.17

2.51

Un 2.5

2.59

2.57

4.45

Ov 3.5

3.14

3.67

2.44

Un 3.5

2.25

3.48

3.73

Goal-Goal

3.09

2.49

3.64

No Goal

1.99

5.29

3.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

6.62

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

5.29

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rennes vs Lyon at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rennes and Lyon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rennes

3.39

2.49

10.7

Draw

3.46

3.66

-1.6

Lyon

2.18

3.07

-13.3

Over 2.5

1.95

2.40

-9.6

Under 2.5

1.87

1.71

5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rennes, Under 2.5 (10.7 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rennes in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance at home.
Rennes, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Nantes

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Metz

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Lorient

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Dec

Marseille

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Nice

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Lens

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Nov

Strasbourg

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Nov

Bordeaux

H

0

1

L

U

N


Lyon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance as a guest.
Lyon, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Lens

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

Nantes

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Nice

A

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Brest

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Reims

H

3

0

W

O

N

22 Nov

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rennes and the red line for guest team, Lyon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rennes

30%

32%

29%

9%

Lyon

36%

36%

14%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.05 goals and Lyon to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team Lyon to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.18 goals and Lyon to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.08

1

4.57

2-3

2.07

2

3.88

4+

5.26

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.33

Un 1.5

3.08

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.07

3.07

2-3 goals

2.00

4.28

3.75

4+ goals

4.13

3.52

2.11

Ov 1.5

2.34

4.04

3.08

Un 1.5

2.88

3.07

3.07

Ov 2.5

2.26

7.70

2.34

Un 2.5

2.69

2.66

3.97

Ov 3.5

4.13

3.52

2.11

Un 3.5

2.28

3.69

3.44

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.70

3.37

No Goal

2.18

5.17

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

6.26

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

5.17

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Paris SG vs Brest at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Brest for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.19

1.69

-24.9

Draw

8.03

4.29

10.9

Brest

15.15

5.65

11.1

Over 2.5

1.35

2.06

-25.5

Under 2.5

3.11

1.94

19.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Brest, Under 2.5 (10.9 %, 11.1 %, 19.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Paris SG in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 70.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Strasbourg

H

4

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Lorient

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Lyon

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Montpellier

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Bordeaux

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Nov

Monaco

A

2

3

L

O

G


Brest in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance as a guest.
Brest, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Nice

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Lens

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Dec

Montpellier

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Lyon

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Reims

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Bordeaux

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Nov

Metz

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

St Etienne

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Brest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

18%

26%

31%

25%

Brest

45%

32%

17%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 3.1 goals and Brest to score 0.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.54 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.62 goals and Brest to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.85

1

5.65

2-3

1.92

2

3.94

4+

4.57

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.85

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

3.13

4.41

2-3 goals

1.49

6.19

6.05

4+ goals

1.81

3.27

7.06

Ov 1.5

1.57

4.89

6.32

Un 1.5

2.20

3.13

4.41

Ov 2.5

1.46

7.24

5.64

Un 2.5

2.00

3.08

5.71

Ov 3.5

1.81

3.27

7.06

Un 3.5

1.67

4.67

5.38

Goal-Goal

2.03

2.96

5.88

No Goal

1.50

6.65

5.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.65

5.42

4.78

NG+Un 2.5

1.67

6.65

4.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nimes vs Lille at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nimes and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nimes

7.13

3.13

17.9

Draw

4.51

3.46

6.7

Lille

1.47

2.55

-28.8

Over 2.5

1.78

2.40

-14.5

Under 2.5

2.08

1.72

10.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nimes, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.9 %, 6.7 %, 10.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nimes in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance at home.
Nimes, at home, had one win, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Strasbourg

A

0

5

L

O

N

23 Dec

Dijon

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

St Etienne

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Nice

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Lorient

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Dec

Marseille

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Monaco

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Reims

A

1

0

W

U

N


Lille in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Angers

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Dec

Montpellier

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Paris SG

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Dijon

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Lorient

H

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nimes and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nimes

37%

36%

17%

10%

Lille

35%

35%

2%

27%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nimes to score 0.65 goals and Lille to score 2.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team Lille to win by 1.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nimes to score 1 goals and Lille to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.63

0-1

2.58

1

3.89

2-3

2.51

2

5.15

4+

4.69

3

4.90

Ov 1.5

1.64

4

7.30

Un 1.5

2.58

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.46

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.06

2.96

2.98

2-3 goals

2.58