2021 01 08 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Benfica vs Tondela at 08 January 2021
Rio Ave vs Portimonense at 08 January 2021
Famalicao vs Porto at 09 January 2021
Boavista vs Santa Clara at 09 January 2021
Moreirense vs Guimaraes at 09 January 2021
Belenenses vs Pacos Ferreira at 10 January 2021
Farense vs Gil Vicente at 10 January 2021


Benfica vs Tondela at 08 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Benfica and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 08 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Benfica

1.14

1.87

-34.2

Draw

7.93

3.89

13.1

Tondela

17.50

4.85

14.9

Over 2.5

1.43

2.49

-29.8

Under 2.5

2.75

1.67

23.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Tondela, Under 2.5 (13.1 %, 14.9 %, 23.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Benfica in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benfica in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance at home.
Benfica, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Santa Clara

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Portimonense

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Gil Vicente

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Nov

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Sp Braga

H

2

3

L

O

G

02 Nov

Boavista

A

0

3

L

O

N

26 Oct

Belenenses

H

2

0

W

U

N


Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Famalicao

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Nacional

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Porto

A

3

4

L

O

G

27 Nov

Guimaraes

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Santa Clara

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

0

4

L

O

N

23 Oct

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Benfica and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Benfica

24%

33%

24%

20%

Tondela

52%

23%

22%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benfica to score 2.93 goals and Tondela to score 0.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.3 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 2.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.39 goals and Tondela to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.13

0-1

2.87

1

4.42

2-3

2.06

2

4.00

4+

6.06

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

9.26

Un 1.5

2.87

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.71

Ov 3.5

6.06

NoG

1.58

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.04

2.84

6.35

2-3 goals

1.75

6.31

3.71

4+ goals

1.90

2.84

8.25

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.82

4.31

Un 1.5

2.04

2.84

6.35

Ov 2.5

1.65

6.91

4.01

Un 2.5

2.04

2.99

5.65

Ov 3.5

1.90

2.84

8.25

Un 3.5

1.86

4.18

4.49

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.73

4.01

No Goal

1.60

5.13

5.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

5.03

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

1.78

5.13

4.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rio Ave vs Portimonense at 08 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rio Ave and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 08 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rio Ave

2.13

1.79

8.9

Draw

3.02

4.03

-8.3

Portimonense

3.87

5.18

-6.5

Over 2.5

2.52

1.97

11.1

Under 2.5

1.51

2.03

-17.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rio Ave, Over 2.5 (8.9 %, 11.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rio Ave in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance at home.
Rio Ave, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Dec

Maritimo

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Sp Braga

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Dec

Boavista

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Nov

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Moreirense

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Farense

A

1

0

W

U

N


Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Benfica

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Famalicao

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Nov

Nacional

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Porto

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Oct

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rio Ave and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rio Ave

17%

31%

27%

26%

Portimonense

36%

45%

9%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.24 goals and Portimonense to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.62 goals and Portimonense to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

4.10

1

5.41

2-3

1.97

2

4.02

4+

3.98

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.10

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

4.14

3.25

2-3 goals

1.64

3.67

8.59

4+ goals

1.79

4.92

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.68

4.01

6.37

Un 1.5

2.22

4.14

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.44

9.98

4.89

Un 2.5

2.39

2.50

5.48

Ov 3.5

1.79

4.92

4.18

Un 3.5

1.79

3.81

5.60

Goal-Goal

2.06

2.84

6.17

No Goal

1.56

7.88

4.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.53

7.82

4.59

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

7.88

3.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Famalicao vs Porto at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Famalicao and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Famalicao

7.59

11.49

-4.5

Draw

4.89

4.05

4.2

Porto

1.37

1.50

-6.3

Over 2.5

1.66

3.00

-26.9

Under 2.5

2.23

1.50

21.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 21.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance at home.
Famalicao, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Dec

Gil Vicente

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Dec

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Sp Lisbon

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Nov

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G


Porto in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance as a guest.
Porto, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Moreirense

H

3

0

W

O

N

29 Dec

Guimaraes

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Nacional

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Tondela

H

4

3

W

O

G

28 Nov

Santa Clara

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Portimonense

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

A

2

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Famalicao and the red line for guest team, Porto.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Famalicao

61%

33%

13%

-6%

Porto

21%

32%

24%

23%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 0.63 goals and Porto to score 2.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 0.4 goals and Porto to score 1.5 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.9 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.00

0-1

2.58

1

3.80

2-3

1.90

2

3.58

4+

11.63

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.63

4

11.63

Un 1.5

2.58

5

66.67

Ov 2.5

3.00

6+

-66.67

Un 2.5

1.50

Gg

3.21

Ov 3.5

11.63

NoG

1.45

Un 3.5

1.09

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.79

3.10

1.98

2-3 goals

9.39

5.01

1.44

4+ goals

-2.39

5.06

0.82

Ov 1.5

30.60

5.02

1.30

Un 1.5

5.79

3.10

1.98

Ov 2.5

-47.57

19.59

1.03

Un 2.5

7.10

2.90

1.94

Ov 3.5

-2.39

5.06

0.82

Un 3.5

7.43

3.97

1.63

Goal-Goal

52.00

2.56

1.70

No Goal

8.49

5.50

1.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

34.50

12.18

1.12

NG+Un 2.5

5.98

5.50

1.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Boavista vs Santa Clara at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boavista

2.40

2.96

-7.9

Draw

2.95

3.62

-6.3

Santa Clara

3.28

2.59

8.1

Over 2.5

2.39

2.18

4.0

Under 2.5

1.57

1.85

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Santa Clara, Over 2.5 (8.1 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boavista in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Maritimo

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Dec

Sp Braga

H

1

4

L

O

G

20 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Nov

Farense

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Nov

Benfica

H

3

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G


Santa Clara in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance as a guest.
Santa Clara, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Moreirense

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Dec

Guimaraes

H

0

4

L

O

N

06 Dec

Nacional

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Porto

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Tondela

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Sp Lisbon

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Santa Clara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boavista

31%

36%

20%

13%

Santa Clara

28%

35%

21%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.18 goals and Santa Clara to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.16 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.40

1

4.78

2-3

2.09

2

4.03

4+

4.42

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.40

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.94

3.46