Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Zaragoza vs Logrones at 08 January 2021
Mirandes vs Vallecano at 09 January 2021
Malaga vs Oviedo at 09 January 2021
Alcorcon vs Albacete at 09 January 2021
Leganes vs Almeria at 10 January 2021
Tenerife vs Cartagena at 10 January 2021
Sp Gijon vs Fuenlabrada at 10 January 2021
Espanol vs Castellon at 10 January 2021
Mallorca vs Las Palmas at 10 January 2021
Sabadell vs Lugo at 11 January 2021
Ponferradina vs Girona at 11 January 2021
Zaragoza vs Logrones at 08 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Logrones for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 08 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Zaragoza |
1.99 |
2.14 |
-3.5 |
|
Draw |
3.13 |
3.65 |
-4.6 |
|
Logrones |
4.17 |
3.86 |
1.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.29 |
6.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.78 |
-13.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Logrones, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Zaragoza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance at home.
Zaragoza, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Nov |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Logrones in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance as a guest.
Logrones, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Mirandes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Espanol |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
26 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Logrones.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Zaragoza |
23% |
35% |
26% |
16% |
|
Logrones |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.23 goals and Logrones to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.35 goals and Logrones to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.36 |
|
1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.00 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
|
Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |
|
NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.94 |
3.97 |
|
4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.72 |
4.05 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.18 |
3.37 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.65 |
4.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
3.77 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |
|
No Goal |
1.83 |
6.05 |
3.47 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.90 |
3.21 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.35 |
Go to Top
Mirandes vs Vallecano at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Mirandes and Vallecano for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Mirandes |
2.95 |
2.21 |
11.4 |
|
Draw |
2.95 |
3.61 |
-6.2 |
|
Vallecano |
2.59 |
3.70 |
-11.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.33 |
6.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.75 |
-10.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (11.4 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Mirandes in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance at home.
Mirandes, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
25 Nov |
Las Palmas |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Vallecano in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance as a guest.
Vallecano, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Alcorcon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Leganes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
25 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mirandes and the red line for guest team, Vallecano.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Mirandes |
24% |
35% |
25% |
15% |
|
Vallecano |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 0.95 goals and Vallecano to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.32 goals and Vallecano to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.27 |
|
1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.15 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |
|
5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
|
Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |
|
NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.44 |
3.36 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.08 |
3.90 |
3.81 |
|
4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.23 |
4.04 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.69 |
3.87 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.44 |
3.36 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.17 |
3.21 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.63 |
4.18 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.23 |
4.04 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.71 |
3.63 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.56 |
4.24 |
|
No Goal |
1.90 |
5.84 |
3.31 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.90 |
3.11 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.84 |
3.24 |
Go to Top
Malaga vs Oviedo at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Malaga and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Malaga |
2.89 |
2.36 |
7.8 |
|
Draw |
2.83 |
3.53 |
-7.0 |
|
Oviedo |
2.75 |
3.41 |
-7.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.42 |
5.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.43 |
1.71 |
-11.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Malaga, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Malaga in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance at home.
Malaga, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Jan |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Cartagena |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Lugo |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Girona |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Oviedo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Jan |
Mallorca |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Ponferradina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Tenerife |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Malaga and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Malaga |
27% |
35% |
24% |
13% |
|
Oviedo |
35% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 0.95 goals and Oviedo to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.24 goals and Oviedo to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.14 |
|
1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.41 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
7.87 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
|
6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
|
Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |
|
NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.35 |
3.21 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.22 |
3.82 |
3.47 |
|
4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.14 |
3.63 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.60 |
3.51 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.35 |
3.21 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
7.00 |
2.91 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.60 |
3.88 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.14 |
3.63 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.62 |
3.36 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.87 |
2.50 |
3.97 |
|
No Goal |
2.05 |
5.54 |
3.02 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.81 |
2.88 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.54 |
3.02 |
Go to Top
Alcorcon vs Albacete at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Alcorcon and Albacete for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Alcorcon |
2.04 |
2.02 |
0.5 |
|
Draw |
2.92 |
3.76 |
-7.7 |
|
Albacete |
4.32 |
4.20 |
0.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.21 |
10.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.83 |
-16.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Alcorcon, Albacete, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.7 %, 10.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Alcorcon in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance at home.
Alcorcon, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Las Palmas |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Almeria |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Girona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Albacete in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance as a guest.
Albacete, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Jan |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Girona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Nov |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alcorcon and the red line for guest team, Albacete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Alcorcon |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |
|
Albacete |
38% |
37% |
18% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.18 goals and Albacete to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.9 goals in the game and the home team Alcorcon to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.42 goals and Albacete to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Alcorcon to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |
|
1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.81 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
|
5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.18 |
3.64 |