2021 01 08 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Benevento vs Atalanta at 09 January 2021
Genoa vs Bologna at 09 January 2021
Milan vs Torino at 09 January 2021
Fiorentina vs Cagliari at 10 January 2021
Juventus vs Sassuolo at 10 January 2021
Udinese vs Napoli at 10 January 2021
Parma vs Lazio at 10 January 2021
Verona vs Crotone at 10 January 2021
Roma vs Inter at 10 January 2021
Spezia vs Sampdoria at 11 January 2021


Benevento vs Atalanta at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Benevento and Atalanta for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Benevento

6.07

2.92

17.8

Draw

4.53

3.44

7.0

Atalanta

1.54

2.73

-28.3

Over 2.5

1.50

2.05

-17.9

Under 2.5

2.54

1.95

11.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Benevento, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.8 %, 7 %, 11.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Benevento in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance at home.
Benevento, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Cagliari

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Udinese

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Genoa

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Sassuolo

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G


Atalanta in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance as a guest.
Atalanta, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Parma

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

Sassuolo

H

5

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Bologna

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Roma

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Juventus

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Fiorentina

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Verona

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Spezia

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Benevento and the red line for guest team, Atalanta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Benevento

36%

13%

42%

9%

Atalanta

35%

18%

31%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benevento to score 0.83 goals and Atalanta to score 2.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.14 goals in the game and the guest team Atalanta to win by 1.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.24 goals and Atalanta to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.06

0-1

4.27

1

9.09

2-3

2.05

2

3.58

4+

3.57

3

4.81

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.27

5

10.20

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.38

Ov 3.5

3.57

NoG

1.72

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.20

1.89

3.60

2-3 goals

1.92

20.29

2.32

4+ goals

6.22

1.96

3.04

Ov 1.5

2.57

4.59

2.54

Un 1.5

5.20

1.89

3.60

Ov 2.5

3.19

3.41

2.54

Un 2.5

2.70

3.47

2.93

Ov 3.5

6.22

1.96

3.04

Un 3.5

2.42

4.87

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.47

2.51

3.18

No Goal

2.62

4.69

2.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.27

2.77

3.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.57

4.69

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Genoa vs Bologna at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Genoa and Bologna for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Genoa

3.09

2.69

4.8

Draw

3.35

3.60

-2.1

Bologna

2.40

2.87

-6.8

Over 2.5

1.87

2.15

-7.0

Under 2.5

1.95

1.87

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Genoa, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Genoa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance at home.
Genoa, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Sassuolo

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Spezia

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Benevento

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Milan

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Dec

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Nov

Parma

H

1

2

L

O

G


Bologna in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance as a guest.
Bologna, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Fiorentina

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Atalanta

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Torino

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Spezia

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Roma

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Crotone

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Genoa and the red line for guest team, Bologna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Genoa

32%

25%

31%

12%

Bologna

38%

18%

31%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Genoa to score 1.18 goals and Bologna to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Genoa to score 1.23 goals and Bologna to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.20

0-1

3.65

1

6.58

2-3

2.08

2

3.83

4+

4.08

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.65

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.38

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

2.25

4.81

2-3 goals

2.21

10.91

2.19

4+ goals

4.08

2.19

3.36

Ov 1.5

2.62

4.65

2.48

Un 1.5

2.88

2.25

4.81

Ov 2.5

2.90

4.14

2.42

Un 2.5

2.52

3.22

3.41

Ov 3.5

4.08

2.19

3.36

Un 3.5

2.42

4.54

2.73

Goal-Goal

3.68

2.69

2.80

No Goal

2.24

4.75

2.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.30

3.36

2.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

4.75

3.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Milan vs Torino at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Milan and Torino for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Milan

1.66

2.36

-17.9

Draw

3.87

2.87

9.0

Torino

5.58

4.37

5.0

Over 2.5

1.68

2.77

-23.4

Under 2.5

2.20

1.56

18.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Torino, Under 2.5 (9 %, 5 %, 18.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Milan in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance at home.
Milan, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Benevento

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Lazio

H

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Sampdoria

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Fiorentina

H

2

0

W

U

N


Torino in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance as a guest.
Torino, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Dec

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Udinese

H

2

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Juventus

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Sampdoria

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milan and the red line for guest team, Torino.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Milan

33%

17%

39%

11%

Torino

62%

-7%

38%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milan to score 1.99 goals and Torino to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milan to score 1.29 goals and Torino to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

4.85

0-1

3.50

1

12.50

2-3

2.06

2

2.82

4+

4.35

3

7.69

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.50

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.78

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.56

Gg

3.97

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

1.34

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

1.39

-11.92

2-3 goals

1.71

-40.42

2.28

4+ goals

6.57

1.49

5.61

Ov 1.5

2.24

5.04

2.81

Un 1.5

2.75

1.39

-11.92

Ov 2.5

4.68

2.34

2.79

Un 2.5

1.85

3.30

6.35

Ov 3.5

6.57

1.49

5.61

Un 3.5

1.99

3.97

4.08

Goal-Goal

42.00

1.77

2.42

No Goal

1.80

3.64

5.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

44.00

1.71

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

3.64

6.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Fiorentina vs Cagliari at 10 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fiorentina and Cagliari for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 10 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fiorentina

1.82

2.20

-9.5

Draw

3.82

3.72

0.7

Cagliari

4.40

3.61

5.0

Over 2.5

1.74

1.98

-7.0

Under 2.5

2.13

2.02

2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Cagliari, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 5 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fiorentina in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance at home.
Fiorentina, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Bologna

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Juventus

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Sassuolo

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Atalanta

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Dec

Genoa

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N


Cagliari in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance as a guest.
Cagliari, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Benevento

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Napoli

H

1

4

L

O

G

23 Dec

Roma

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

Udinese

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Inter

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Dec

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Spezia

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fiorentina and the red line for guest team, Cagliari.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fiorentina

27%

17%

40%

16%

Cagliari

38%

24%

27%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.8 goals and Cagliari to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Fiorentina to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.45 goals and Cagliari to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Fiorentina to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

4.33

1

7.69

2-3

2.01

2

3.79

4+

3.68

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.33

5

11.36

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

3.68

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at