Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Reggiana vs Cittadella at 09 January 2021
Reggiana vs Cittadella at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Reggiana |
4.19 |
2.66 |
13.7 |
|
Draw |
3.26 |
3.58 |
-2.7 |
|
Cittadella |
1.98 |
2.89 |
-15.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.15 |
-4.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.87 |
-0.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana (13.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Reggiana in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance at home.
Reggiana, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
04 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Reggina |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Brescia |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Frosinone |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Monza |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Cittadella in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance as a guest.
Cittadella, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
04 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Lecce |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Frosinone |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Reggina |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Spal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Pisa |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggiana and the red line for guest team, Cittadella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Reggiana |
27% |
34% |
29% |
10% |
|
Cittadella |
27% |
39% |
21% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggiana to score 0.93 goals and Cittadella to score 1.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Cittadella to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.23 goals and Cittadella to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.75 |
|
1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
4.57 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.93 |
3.71 |
2.57 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.86 |
3.21 |
|
4+ goals |
3.48 |
2.92 |
2.70 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.52 |
3.04 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.93 |
3.71 |
2.57 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.21 |
2.51 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.15 |
2.60 |
3.35 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.48 |
2.92 |
2.70 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.80 |
2.95 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.58 |
3.53 |
|
No Goal |
2.35 |
6.42 |
2.39 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.39 |
2.66 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.42 |
2.52 |
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