2021 01 08 Spain’s Liga ACB

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bilbao vs Valencia at 09 January 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Andorra at 09 January 2021
Real Betis vs San Pablo Burgos at 09 January 2021
Manresa vs Barcelona at 09 January 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Baskonia at 10 January 2021
Gran Canaria vs Joventut Badalona at 10 January 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Tenerife at 10 January 2021
Estudiantes vs Zaragoza at 10 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Bilbao vs Valencia at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bilbao	3.5	3.06
Valencia	1.3	1.49
Bilbao HC	+7.5	5.00
Valencia HC	-7.5	-5.00
Point Line	163.5	164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 2	H	Acunsa GBC	W	81	80	4	13	W 1	77	90
Dec 29	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	86	96	3	13	L 2	88	88
Dec 27	H	Unicaja	L	75	91	3	12	L 1	74	85
Dec 20	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	74	70	3	11	W 1	73	70
Dec 13	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	76	105	2	11	L 3	68	108
Dec 6	H	Movistar Estudiantes	L	77	78	2	10	L 2	75	80
Dec 3	H	MoraBanc Andorra	L	76	85	2	9	L 1	79	88
Nov 22	A	Coosur Real Betis	W	96	89	2	8	W 1	94	95

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 4	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	91	80	11	6	W 7	89	78
Jan 2	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	101	85	10	6	W 6	101	91
Dec 27	H	Acunsa GBC	W	101	75	9	6	W 5	96	85
Dec 20	H	UCAM Murcia	W	89	78	8	6	W 4	89	78
Dec 13	A	Movistar Estudiantes	W	86	81	7	6	W 3	83	83
Dec 5	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	68	61	6	6	W 2	67	61
Dec 1	A	FC Barcelona Lassa	W	100	90	5	6	W 1	109	87
Nov 22	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	89	95	4	6	L 3	92	88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 80 points and the Valencia 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Bilbao	Valencia
FG%	0.52	0.58
ASS	15.20	19.30
DRB	21.60	22.60
AST-TO	1.05	1.42
TRB	30.20	29.90
FTM	14.60	15.20
BL	2.20	1.50
FTA	18.50	18.10
PF-Fewer	21.30	16.90
ST	6.00	6.50
TO-Fewer	14.50	13.60
Ftper	0.79	0.84
ORBper	0.39	0.32
ORB	8.50	7.30

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

Go to Top

Fuenlabrada vs Andorra at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Andorra for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Fuenlabrada	2.17	2.18
Andorra	1.7	1.85
Fuenlabrada HC	+2.5	2.00
Andorra HC	-2.5	-2.00
Point Line	158.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 3	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	67	83	5	12	L 2	73	80
Dec 27	A	Coosur Real Betis	L	79	86	5	11	L 1	77	92
Dec 22	A	Unicaja	W	90	84	5	10	W 1	89	79
Dec 20	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	L	70	74	4	10	L 4	66	76
Dec 13	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	71	87	4	9	L 3	71	94
Dec 5	H	Valencia Basket	L	61	68	4	8	L 2	62	65
Nov 21	A	UCAM Murcia	L	81	84	4	7	L 1	81	84
Nov 14	H	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	W	82	81	4	6	W 1	74	84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 4	H	Real Madrid	L	69	75	7	9	L 3	75	71
Jan 2	A	Baskonia	L	67	84	7	8	L 2	71	83
Dec 27	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	81	93	7	7	L 1	84	86
Dec 20	H	Movistar Estudiantes	W	81	73	7	6	W 1	79	75
Dec 13	A	Acunsa GBC	L	82	86	6	6	L 2	78	97
Dec 11	H	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	83	98	6	5	L 1	75	101
Dec 6	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	72	55	6	4	W 3	71	58
Dec 3	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	85	76	5	4	W 2	80	78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fuenlabrada (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fuenlabrada will expected to score 80 points and the Andorra 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Var	Fuenlabrada	Andorra
FG%	0.51	0.52
ASS	14.30	15.80
DRB	21.70	23.80
AST-TO	1.01	1.10
TRB	31.70	33.30
FTM	15.40	13.10
BL	3.20	2.90
FTA	21.00	17.40
PF-Fewer	21.40	20.70
ST	8.50	7.30
TO-Fewer	14.10	14.30
Ftper	0.73	0.75
ORBper	0.46	0.40
ORB	10.00	9.50

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

Go to Top

Real Betis vs San Pablo Burgos at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Real Betis	2.85	2.14
San Pablo Burgos	1.42	1.88
Real Betis HC	+5.5	2.00
San Pablo Burgos HC	-5.5	-2.00
Point Line	162.5	161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 2	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	95	96	4	13	L 1	86	99
Dec 29	A	Unicaja	W	114	111	4	12	W 2	113	104
Dec 27	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	86	79	3	12	W 1	85	79
Dec 22	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	54	78	2	12	L 6	54	84
Dec 12	H	Baskonia	L	73	77	2	11	L 5	77	76
Dec 6	A	MoraBanc Andorra	L	55	72	2	10	L 4	57	75
Nov 22	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	L	89	96	2	9	L 3	84	98
Nov 14	A	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	53	82	2	8	L 2	58	79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 3	H	Unicaja	W	95	83	12	5	W 4	94	78
Dec 29	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	96	86	11	5	W 3	90	88
Dec 27	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	95	78	10	5	W 2	93	76
Dec 19	H	Manresa	W	91	80	9	5	W 1	91	80
Dec 12	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	79	84	8	5	L 2	82	78
Dec 6	H	Real Madrid	L	60	74	8	4	L 1	65	70
Nov 21	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	78	63	8	3	W 4	75	64
Nov 15	H	Movistar Estudiantes	W	91	71	7	3	W 3	88	73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 78 points and the San Pablo Burgos 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Var	Real Betis	San Pablo Burgos
FG%	0.48	0.51
ASS	13.90	14.60
DRB	19.80	22.10
AST-TO	1.03	0.94
TRB	30.40	32.20
FTM	14.80	15.80
BL	2.90	2.00
FTA	20.50	19.80
PF-Fewer	20.60	19.30
ST	8.80	7.50
TO-Fewer	13.50	15.60
Ftper	0.72	0.80
ORBper	0.53	0.46
ORB	10.50	10.10

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

Go to Top

Manresa vs Barcelona at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Barcelona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Manresa	3.7	1.53
Barcelona	1.28	2.90
Manresa HC	+7.5	-5.00
Barcelona HC	-7.5	5.00
Point Line	157.5	158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 29	A	Acunsa GBC	W	78	71	8	8	W 1	74	80
Dec 27	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	64	71	7	8	L 2	64	76
Dec 19	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	80	91	7	7	L 1	82	83
Dec 12	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	85	80	7	6	W 1	83	78
Nov 22	A	Real Madrid	L	78	100	6	6	L 2	84	94
Nov 12	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	80	88	6	5	L 1	83	82
Nov 8	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	W	103	102	6	4	W 2	93	105
Oct 31	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	94	78	5	4	W 1	88	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 3	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	83	67	14	3	W 5	82	67
Dec 27	A	Real Madrid	W	87	82	13	3	W 4	94	77
Dec 20	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	88	74	12	3	W 3	86	72
Dec 13	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	78	75	11	3	W 2	75	76
Dec 6	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	91	63	10	3	W 1	91	68
Dec 1	H	Valencia Basket	L	90	100	9	3	L 1	91	95
Nov 22	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	W	97	85	9	2	W 4	87	88
Nov 14	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	82	53	8	2	W 3	80	56

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 78 points and the Barcelona 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Var	Manresa	Barcelona
FG%	0.56	0.49
ASS	15.00	16.20
DRB	22.10	19.50
AST-TO	1.04	1.26
TRB	28.90	28.40
FTM	16.30	13.80
BL	3.80	2.30
FTA	21.40	18.40
PF-Fewer	20.40	20.90
ST	9.40	8.40
TO-Fewer	14.40	12.90
Ftper	0.76	0.75
ORBper	0.31	0.46
ORB	6.80	8.90

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

Go to Top

Unicaja Malaga vs Baskonia at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Unicaja Malaga	2.3	1.39
Baskonia	1.63	3.53
Unicaja Malaga HC	+3.5	-6.50
Baskonia HC	-3.5	6.50
Point Line	165.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 3	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	83	95	9	8	L 2	85	87
Dec 29	H	Coosur Real Betis	L	111	114	9	7	L 1	109	121
Dec 27	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	91	75	9	6	W 1	86	77
Dec 22