2021 01 08 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bilbao vs Valencia at 09 January 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Andorra at 09 January 2021
Real Betis vs San Pablo Burgos at 09 January 2021
Manresa vs Barcelona at 09 January 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Baskonia at 10 January 2021
Gran Canaria vs Joventut Badalona at 10 January 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Tenerife at 10 January 2021
Estudiantes vs Zaragoza at 10 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bilbao vs Valencia at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bilbao

3.5

3.06

Valencia

1.3

1.49

Bilbao HC

+7.5

5.00

Valencia HC

-7.5

-5.00

Point Line

163.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

H

Acunsa GBC

W

81

80

4

13

W 1

77

90

Dec 29

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

86

96

3

13

L 2

88

88

Dec 27

H

Unicaja

L

75

91

3

12

L 1

74

85

Dec 20

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

74

70

3

11

W 1

73

70

Dec 13

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

76

105

2

11

L 3

68

108

Dec 6

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

77

78

2

10

L 2

75

80

Dec 3

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

76

85

2

9

L 1

79

88

Nov 22

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

89

2

8

W 1

94

95

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 4

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

91

80

11

6

W 7

89

78

Jan 2

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

101

85

10

6

W 6

101

91

Dec 27

H

Acunsa GBC

W

101

75

9

6

W 5

96

85

Dec 20

H

UCAM Murcia

W

89

78

8

6

W 4

89

78

Dec 13

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

86

81

7

6

W 3

83

83

Dec 5

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

68

61

6

6

W 2

67

61

Dec 1

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

W

100

90

5

6

W 1

109

87

Nov 22

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

89

95

4

6

L 3

92

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 80 points and the Valencia 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bilbao

Valencia

FG%

0.52

0.58

ASS

15.20

19.30

DRB

21.60

22.60

AST-TO

1.05

1.42

TRB

30.20

29.90

FTM

14.60

15.20

BL

2.20

1.50

FTA

18.50

18.10

PF-Fewer

21.30

16.90

ST

6.00

6.50

TO-Fewer

14.50

13.60

Ftper

0.79

0.84

ORBper

0.39

0.32

ORB

8.50

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fuenlabrada vs Andorra at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Andorra for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fuenlabrada

2.17

2.18

Andorra

1.7

1.85

Fuenlabrada HC

+2.5

2.00

Andorra HC

-2.5

-2.00

Point Line

158.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

67

83

5

12

L 2

73

80

Dec 27

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

79

86

5

11

L 1

77

92

Dec 22

A

Unicaja

W

90

84

5

10

W 1

89

79

Dec 20

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

70

74

4

10

L 4

66

76

Dec 13

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

71

87

4

9

L 3

71

94

Dec 5

H

Valencia Basket

L

61

68

4

8

L 2

62

65

Nov 21

A

UCAM Murcia

L

81

84

4

7

L 1

81

84

Nov 14

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

82

81

4

6

W 1

74

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 4

H

Real Madrid

L

69

75

7

9

L 3

75

71

Jan 2

A

Baskonia

L

67

84

7

8

L 2

71

83

Dec 27

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

81

93

7

7

L 1

84

86

Dec 20

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

81

73

7

6

W 1

79

75

Dec 13

A

Acunsa GBC

L

82

86

6

6

L 2

78

97

Dec 11

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

83

98

6

5

L 1

75

101

Dec 6

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

72

55

6

4

W 3

71

58

Dec 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

76

5

4

W 2

80

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fuenlabrada (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fuenlabrada will expected to score 80 points and the Andorra 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fuenlabrada

Andorra

FG%

0.51

0.52

ASS

14.30

15.80

DRB

21.70

23.80

AST-TO

1.01

1.10

TRB

31.70

33.30

FTM

15.40

13.10

BL

3.20

2.90

FTA

21.00

17.40

PF-Fewer

21.40

20.70

ST

8.50

7.30

TO-Fewer

14.10

14.30

Ftper

0.73

0.75

ORBper

0.46

0.40

ORB

10.00

9.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Betis vs San Pablo Burgos at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Betis

2.85

2.14

San Pablo Burgos

1.42

1.88

Real Betis HC

+5.5

2.00

San Pablo Burgos HC

-5.5

-2.00

Point Line

162.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

95

96

4

13

L 1

86

99

Dec 29

A

Unicaja

W

114

111

4

12

W 2

113

104

Dec 27

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

86

79

3

12

W 1

85

79

Dec 22

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

54

78

2

12

L 6

54

84

Dec 12

H

Baskonia

L

73

77

2

11

L 5

77

76

Dec 6

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

55

72

2

10

L 4

57

75

Nov 22

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

89

96

2

9

L 3

84

98

Nov 14

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

53

82

2

8

L 2

58

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

H

Unicaja

W

95

83

12

5

W 4

94

78

Dec 29

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

86

11

5

W 3

90

88

Dec 27

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

95

78

10

5

W 2

93

76

Dec 19

H

Manresa

W

91

80

9

5

W 1

91

80

Dec 12

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

79

84

8

5

L 2

82

78

Dec 6

H

Real Madrid

L

60

74

8

4

L 1

65

70

Nov 21

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

63

8

3

W 4

75

64

Nov 15

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

71

7

3

W 3

88

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 78 points and the San Pablo Burgos 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Betis

San Pablo Burgos

FG%

0.48

0.51

ASS

13.90

14.60

DRB

19.80

22.10

AST-TO

1.03

0.94

TRB

30.40

32.20

FTM

14.80

15.80

BL

2.90

2.00

FTA

20.50

19.80

PF-Fewer

20.60

19.30

ST

8.80

7.50

TO-Fewer

13.50

15.60

Ftper

0.72

0.80

ORBper

0.53

0.46

ORB

10.50

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Manresa vs Barcelona at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Barcelona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Manresa

3.7

1.53

Barcelona

1.28

2.90

Manresa HC

+7.5

-5.00

Barcelona HC

-7.5

5.00

Point Line

157.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 29

A

Acunsa GBC

W

78

71

8

8

W 1

74

80

Dec 27

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

64

71

7

8

L 2

64

76

Dec 19

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

80

91

7

7

L 1

82

83

Dec 12

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

85

80

7

6

W 1

83

78

Nov 22

A

Real Madrid

L

78

100

6

6

L 2

84

94

Nov 12

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

80

88

6

5

L 1

83

82

Nov 8

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

103

102

6

4

W 2

93

105

Oct 31

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

94

78

5

4

W 1

88

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

83

67

14

3

W 5

82

67

Dec 27

A

Real Madrid

W

87

82

13

3

W 4

94

77

Dec 20

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

88

74

12

3

W 3

86

72

Dec 13

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

75

11

3

W 2

75

76

Dec 6

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

91

63

10

3

W 1

91

68

Dec 1

H

Valencia Basket

L

90

100

9

3

L 1

91

95

Nov 22

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

97

85

9

2

W 4

87

88

Nov 14

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

82

53

8

2

W 3

80

56

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 78 points and the Barcelona 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Manresa

Barcelona

FG%

0.56

0.49

ASS

15.00

16.20

DRB

22.10

19.50

AST-TO

1.04

1.26

TRB

28.90

28.40

FTM

16.30

13.80

BL

3.80

2.30

FTA

21.40

18.40

PF-Fewer

20.40

20.90

ST

9.40

8.40

TO-Fewer

14.40

12.90

Ftper

0.76

0.75

ORBper

0.31

0.46

ORB

6.80

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unicaja Malaga vs Baskonia at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

2.3

1.39

Baskonia

1.63

3.53

Unicaja Malaga HC

+3.5

-6.50

Baskonia HC

-3.5

6.50

Point Line

165.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

83

95

9

8

L 2

85

87

Dec 29

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

111

114

9

7

L 1

109

121

Dec 27

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

91

75

9

6

W 1

86

77

Dec 22