# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Panetolikos vs Olympiakos at 09 January 2021**** PAOK vs Volos NFC at 10 January 2021**** Apollon vs Asteras Tripolis at 10 January 2021**** Panathinaikos vs Larisa at 10 January 2021**** Atromitos vs OFI Crete at 10 January 2021**** Lamia vs AEK at 11 January 2021**** Giannina vs Aris at 11 January 2021**

###
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos at 09 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Panetolikos** and **Olympiakos** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **09 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Panetolikos |
9.38 |
3.94 |
14.7 |

Draw |
5.08 |
3.42 |
9.6 |

Olympiakos |
1.28 |
2.20 |
-32.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.71 |
-21.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.58 |
15.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Panetolikos, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.7 %, 9.6 %, 15 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Panetolikos** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panetolikos** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance** at home**.

Panetolikos,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Jan |
AEK |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Olympiakos** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Olympiakos** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance** as a guest**.

Olympiakos,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
AEK |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
AEK |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Lamia |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Aris |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Panetolikos** and the red line for guest team, **Olympiakos. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Panetolikos |
44% |
40% |
4% |
12% |

Olympiakos |
31% |
32% |
21% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Panetolikos** to score **0.52 ** goals and **Olympiakos** to score **2.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the guest team **Olympiakos ** to win by **1.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Panetolikos** to score **0.85 ** goals and **Olympiakos** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and the guest team **Olympiakos ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.35 |
0-1 |
2.50 |

1 |
3.79 |
2-3 |
2.29 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
6.10 |

3 |
4.90 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.67 |

4 |
8.93 |
Un 1.5 |
2.50 |

5 |
31.25 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.72 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.58 |

Gg |
2.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.10 |

NoG |
1.63 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.25 |
2.94 |
2.84 |

2-3 goals |
6.61 |
3.41 |
1.80 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
5.66 |
2.31 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.62 |
3.82 |
1.92 |

Un 1.5 |
3.25 |
2.94 |
2.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.17 |
12.69 |
1.65 |

Un 2.5 |
4.61 |
2.39 |
2.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
5.66 |
2.31 |

Un 3.5 |
4.42 |
3.17 |
2.18 |

Goal-Goal |
4.97 |
2.47 |
2.54 |

No Goal |
3.50 |
4.50 |
2.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.33 |
8.97 |
1.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.68 |
4.50 |
2.18 |

####
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###
PAOK vs Volos NFC at 10 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **PAOK** and **Volos NFC** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **10 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PAOK |
1.14 |
2.00 |
-37.7 |

Draw |
7.75 |
3.55 |
15.3 |

Volos NFC |
18.65 |
4.61 |
16.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.50 |
2.75 |
-30.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.49 |
1.57 |
23.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (15.3 %, 16.3 %, 23.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PAOK** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PAOK** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance** at home**.

PAOK,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Lamia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Apollon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Volos NFC** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Volos NFC** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance** as a guest**.

Volos NFC,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Apollon |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PAOK** and the red line for guest team, **Volos NFC. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PAOK |
26% |
39% |
16% |
20% |

Volos NFC |
47% |
33% |
17% |
2% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **2.77 ** goals and **Volos NFC** to score **0.35 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.12** goals in the game and the home team **PAOK ** to win by **2.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Volos NFC** to score **0.75 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.05** goals in the game and the home team **PAOK ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.40 |
0-1 |
2.58 |

1 |
3.73 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
6.90 |

3 |
4.57 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |

4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
2.58 |

5 |
26.32 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |

6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |

Gg |
2.52 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.90 |

NoG |
1.66 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.11 |
3.25 |
4.55 |

2-3 goals |
2.14 |
3.57 |
3.97 |

4+ goals |
1.46 |
4.53 |
10.36 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.76 |
4.64 |

Un 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.25 |
4.55 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.49 |
11.38 |
4.14 |

Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.54 |
4.93 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.46 |
4.53 |
10.36 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.42 |
4.21 |

Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.44 |
4.84 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
5.07 |
4.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
8.31 |
3.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
5.07 |
3.91 |

####
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###
Apollon vs Asteras Tripolis at 10 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Apollon** and **Asteras Tripolis** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **10 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Apollon |
2.73 |
3.02 |
-3.5 |

Draw |
2.77 |
3.46 |
-7.2 |

Asteras Tripolis |
2.89 |
2.63 |
3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.59 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.63 |
-2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Asteras Tripolis (3.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Apollon** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Apollon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance** at home**.

Apollon,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
AEK |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
Volos NFC |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Asteras Tripolis** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Asteras Tripolis** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance** as a guest**.

Asteras Tripolis,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Dec |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
PAOK |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
AEK |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Apollon** and the red line for guest team, **Asteras Tripolis. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Apollon |
38% |
28% |
23% |
10% |

Asteras Tripolis |
31% |
32% |
32% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Apollon** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Asteras Tripolis** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Apollon** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Asteras Tripolis** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.47 |
0-1 |
3.05 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.50 |
4+ |
5.92 |

3 |
4.63 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.26 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |

5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.60 |

6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.63 |

Gg |
2.34 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.92 |

NoG |
1.75 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.73 |
2.78 |
2.69 |

2-3 goals |
2.82 |
5.46 |
2.16 |

4+ goals |
2.64 |
2.11 |
6.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.90 |
2.61 |

Un 1.5 |
3.73 |
2.78 |
2.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
4.81 |
2.85 |

Un 2.5 |
3.84 |
2.92 |
2.52 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.64 |
2.11 |
6.76 |

Un 3.5 |
3.12 |
3.95 |
2.34 |

Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.49 |
3.66 |

No Goal |
2.99 |
4.84 |
2.18 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
4.20 |
2.87 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
4.84 |
2.14 |

####
Go to Top

###
Panathinaikos vs Larisa at 10 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Panathinaikos** and **Larisa** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **10 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Panathinaikos |
1.58 |
1.82 |
-8.3 |

Draw |
3.77 |
3.72 |
0.4 |

Larisa |
6.21 |
5.46 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.51 |
-2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.66 |
-2.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Larisa (0.4 %, 2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Panathinaikos** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panathinaikos** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance** at home**.

Panathinaikos,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Larisa** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Larisa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance** as a guest**.

Larisa,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Jan |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Aris |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
AEK |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Panathinaikos** and the red line for guest team, **Larisa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Panathinaikos |
23% |
36% |
15% |
26% |

Larisa |
49% |
34% |
12% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Panathinaikos** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Larisa** to score **0.6 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and the home team **Panathinaikos ** to win by **0.96** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Panathinaikos** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Larisa** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and the home team **Panathinaikos ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.62 |
0-1 |
2.67 |

1 |
3.88 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
5.88 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.60 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |

5 |
27.03 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.88 |

NoG |
1.63 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.11 |
3.22 |
4.62 |