Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos at 09 January 2021
PAOK vs Volos NFC at 10 January 2021
Apollon vs Asteras Tripolis at 10 January 2021
Panathinaikos vs Larisa at 10 January 2021
Atromitos vs OFI Crete at 10 January 2021
Lamia vs AEK at 11 January 2021
Giannina vs Aris at 11 January 2021
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos at 09 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Panetolikos and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 09 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Panetolikos |
9.38 |
3.94 |
14.7 |
|
Draw |
5.08 |
3.42 |
9.6 |
|
Olympiakos |
1.28 |
2.20 |
-32.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.71 |
-21.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.58 |
15.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Panetolikos, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.7 %, 9.6 %, 15 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Panetolikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance at home.
Panetolikos, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Jan |
AEK |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Nov |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance as a guest.
Olympiakos, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
AEK |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
AEK |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Lamia |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Aris |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panetolikos and the red line for guest team, Olympiakos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Panetolikos |
44% |
40% |
4% |
12% |
|
Olympiakos |
31% |
32% |
21% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 0.52 goals and Olympiakos to score 2.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 1.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 0.85 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.35 |
0-1 |
2.50 |
|
1 |
3.79 |
2-3 |
2.29 |
|
2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
6.10 |
|
3 |
4.90 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.67 |
|
4 |
8.93 |
Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
|
5 |
31.25 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.72 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.58 |
|
Gg |
2.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.10 |
|
NoG |
1.63 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.25 |
2.94 |
2.84 |
|
2-3 goals |
6.61 |
3.41 |
1.80 |
|
4+ goals |
2.56 |
5.66 |
2.31 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
4.62 |
3.82 |
1.92 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.25 |
2.94 |
2.84 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.17 |
12.69 |
1.65 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.61 |
2.39 |
2.74 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
5.66 |
2.31 |
|
Un 3.5 |
4.42 |
3.17 |
2.18 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.97 |
2.47 |
2.54 |
|
No Goal |
3.50 |
4.50 |
2.03 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.33 |
8.97 |
1.70 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.68 |
4.50 |
2.18 |
Go to Top
PAOK vs Volos NFC at 10 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Volos NFC for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 10 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
PAOK |
1.14 |
2.00 |
-37.7 |
|
Draw |
7.75 |
3.55 |
15.3 |
|
Volos NFC |
18.65 |
4.61 |
16.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.50 |
2.75 |
-30.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.49 |
1.57 |
23.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (15.3 %, 16.3 %, 23.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
PAOK in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance at home.
PAOK, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Lamia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Nov |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Apollon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Volos NFC in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance as a guest.
Volos NFC, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Nov |
Apollon |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Nov |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PAOK and the red line for guest team, Volos NFC.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
PAOK |
26% |
39% |
16% |
20% |
|
Volos NFC |
47% |
33% |
17% |
2% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 2.77 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.12 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 2.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.3 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.75 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.40 |
0-1 |
2.58 |
|
1 |
3.73 |
2-3 |
2.14 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
6.90 |
|
3 |
4.57 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |
|
4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
|
5 |
26.32 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |
|
6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |
|
Gg |
2.52 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.90 |
|
NoG |
1.66 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.11 |
3.25 |
4.55 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.14 |
3.57 |
3.97 |
|
4+ goals |
1.46 |
4.53 |
10.36 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.76 |
4.64 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.25 |
4.55 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.49 |
11.38 |
4.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.54 |
4.93 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.46 |
4.53 |
10.36 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.42 |
4.21 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.44 |
4.84 |
|
No Goal |
1.73 |
5.07 |
4.47 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
8.31 |
3.24 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
5.07 |
3.91 |
Go to Top
Apollon vs Asteras Tripolis at 10 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and Asteras Tripolis for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 10 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Apollon |
2.73 |
3.02 |
-3.5 |
|
Draw |
2.77 |
3.46 |
-7.2 |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
2.89 |
2.63 |
3.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.59 |
-4.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.63 |
-2.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis (3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Apollon in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
AEK |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Nov |
Volos NFC |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
25 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance as a guest.
Asteras Tripolis, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Dec |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
PAOK |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
AEK |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
25 Nov |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, Asteras Tripolis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Apollon |
38% |
28% |
23% |
10% |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
31% |
32% |
32% |
5% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.1 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.05 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.47 |
0-1 |
3.05 |
|
1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.50 |
4+ |
5.92 |
|
3 |
4.63 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |
|
4 |
8.26 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |
|
5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.60 |
|
6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.63 |
|
Gg |
2.34 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.92 |
|
NoG |
1.75 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.73 |
2.78 |
2.69 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.82 |
5.46 |
2.16 |
|
4+ goals |
2.64 |
2.11 |
6.76 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.90 |
2.61 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |
2.78 |
2.69 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
4.81 |
2.85 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.84 |
2.92 |
2.52 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.64 |
2.11 |
6.76 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.12 |
3.95 |
2.34 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.49 |
3.66 |
|
No Goal |
2.99 |
4.84 |
2.18 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
4.20 |
2.87 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
4.84 |
2.14 |
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Panathinaikos vs Larisa at 10 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 10 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Panathinaikos |
1.58 |
1.82 |
-8.3 |
|
Draw |
3.77 |
3.72 |
0.4 |
|
Larisa |
6.21 |
5.46 |
2.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.51 |
-2.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.66 |
-2.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Larisa (0.4 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance at home.
Panathinaikos, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Jan |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Aris |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
22 Nov |
AEK |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panathinaikos and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Panathinaikos |
23% |
36% |
15% |
26% |
|
Larisa |
49% |
34% |
12% |
4% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.56 goals and Larisa to score 0.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.43 goals and Larisa to score 0.71 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.62 |
0-1 |
2.67 |
|
1 |
3.88 |
2-3 |
2.19 |
|
2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
5.88 |
|
3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.60 |
|
4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
|
5 |
27.03 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
|
6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
|
Gg |
2.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.88 |
|
NoG |
1.63 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.11 |
3.22 |
4.62 |