2021 01 08 Turkey Super League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fethiye Belediye vs Karsiyaka at 09 January 2021
Tofas vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 09 January 2021
Ormanspor vs Fenerbahce at 09 January 2021
Darussafaka vs Turk Telekom at 10 January 2021
Petkim Spor vs Buyukcekmece at 10 January 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Galatasaray at 10 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Fethiye Belediye vs Karsiyaka at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fethiye Belediye and Karsiyaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Fethiye Belediye	4.35	7.01
Karsiyaka	1.2	1.17
Fethiye Belediye HC	+10.5	9.50
Karsiyaka HC	-10.5	-9.50
Point Line	158.5	161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 3	H	Afyon	W	100	89	4	11	W 1	95	90
Dec 26	A	Buyukcekmece	L	59	66	3	11	L 6	56	66
Dec 20	H	Bahcesehir	L	76	105	3	10	L 5	77	105
Dec 16	A	Gaziantep	L	64	84	3	9	L 4	71	92
Dec 13	A	Turk Telekom	L	75	87	3	8	L 3	76	85
Dec 5	H	Darussafaka	L	54	78	3	7	L 2	55	78
Dec 2	A	Tofas	L	81	110	3	6	L 1	80	104
Nov 21	H	Socar Spor	W	75	74	3	5	W 1	76	75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 2	A	Besiktas	W	84	72	12	3	W 7	83	70
Dec 27	H	Ormanspor	W	86	57	11	3	W 6	78	60
Dec 19	A	Galatasaray	W	86	74	10	3	W 5	80	73
Dec 16	A	Buyukcekmece	W	90	77	9	3	W 4	86	78
Dec 12	H	Fenerbahce	W	83	79	8	3	W 3	89	72
Dec 6	A	Bursaspor	W	94	81	7	3	W 2	86	83
Dec 4	H	Bahcesehir	W	82	79	6	3	W 1	83	79
Dec 1	A	Anadolu Efes	L	61	74	5	3	L 1	69	70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fethiye Belediye (in the first graph) and by Karsiyaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fethiye Belediye will expected to score 74 points and the Karsiyaka 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Fethiye Belediye	Karsiyaka
FG%	0.49	0.54
ASS	19.50	19.60
DRB	21.80	24.70
AST-TO	1.57	1.58
TRB	30.50	34.30
FTM	13.30	17.40
BL	2.30	1.90
FTA	18.20	23.80
PF-Fewer	19.10	18.90
ST	6.00	6.70
TO-Fewer	12.40	12.40
Ftper	0.73	0.73
ORBper	0.40	0.38
ORB	8.70	9.50

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Tofas vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tofas and Bahcesehir Koleji for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Tofas	1.28	1.71
Bahcesehir Koleji	3.6	2.41
Tofas HC	-7.5	-3.00
Bahcesehir Koleji HC	+7.5	3.00
Point Line	168.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 2	H	Turk Telekom	W	78	64	7	7	W 2	79	62
Dec 27	A	Darussafaka	W	85	72	6	7	W 1	86	72
Dec 19	H	Anadolu Efes	L	78	92	5	7	L 2	88	87
Dec 5	A	Gaziantep	L	67	68	5	6	L 1	74	75
Dec 2	H	Fethiye	W	110	81	5	5	W 1	101	88
Nov 22	A	Besiktas	L	85	94	4	5	L 1	84	92
Nov 14	H	Ormanspor	W	99	82	4	4	W 2	90	87
Nov 8	A	Galatasaray	W	91	79	3	4	W 1	85	78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 3	A	Socar Spor	W	77	72	6	9	W 1	78	73
Dec 26	H	Gaziantep	L	76	83	5	9	L 1	84	91
Dec 20	A	Fethiye	W	105	76	5	8	W 1	96	82
Dec 12	H	Besiktas	L	76	86	4	8	L 5	75	84
Dec 6	A	Ormanspor	L	68	80	4	7	L 4	62	85
Dec 4	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	79	82	4	6	L 3	86	80
Dec 2	H	Galatasaray	L	78	95	4	5	L 2	73	94
Nov 22	A	Fenerbahce	L	56	70	4	4	L 1	60	64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tofas (in the first graph) and by Bahcesehir Koleji in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tofas will expected to score 83 points and the Bahcesehir Koleji 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Var	Tofas	Bahcesehir Koleji
FG%	0.56	0.54
ASS	21.30	17.40
DRB	22.40	23.50
AST-TO	1.84	1.37
TRB	30.80	32.30
FTM	12.20	13.90
BL	3.10	2.20
FTA	16.40	18.70
PF-Fewer	21.10	20.50
ST	7.50	6.80
TO-Fewer	11.60	12.70
Ftper	0.75	0.74
ORBper	0.38	0.37
ORB	8.40	8.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Ormanspor vs Fenerbahce at 09 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ormanspor and Fenerbahce for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 09 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Ormanspor	7	3.17
Fenerbahce	1.09	1.46
Ormanspor HC	+13.5	5.50
Fenerbahce HC	-13.5	-5.50
Point Line	164.5	166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ormanspor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 3	H	Bursaspor	W	84	80	5	10	W 1	77	82
Dec 27	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	57	86	4	10	L 3	62	84
Dec 20	H	Afyon	L	85	101	4	9	L 2	80	102
Dec 13	A	Buyukcekmece	L	82	89	4	8	L 1	79	90
Dec 6	H	Bahcesehir	W	80	68	4	7	W 1	81	68
Dec 2	A	Turk Telekom	L	64	83	3	7	L 4	64	81
Nov 21	H	Darussafaka	L	64	80	3	6	L 3	65	80
Nov 14	A	Tofas	L	82	99	3	5	L 2	81	93

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 2	A	Galatasaray	W	87	73	12	3	W 1	81	72
Dec 26	A	Anadolu Efes	L	72	85	11	3	L 1	81	80
Dec 20	H	Bursaspor	W	90	54	11	2	W 1	83	55
Dec 12	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	79	83	10	2	L 1	86	81
Dec 6	H	Afyon	W	94	74	10	1	W 1	89	75
Dec 1	A	Buyukcekmece	L	91	93	9	1	L 1	87	94
Nov 22	H	Bahcesehir	W	70	56	9	0	W 8	71	56
Nov 14	A	Turk Telekom	W	82	81	8	0	W 7	83	79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ormanspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ormanspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ormanspor (in the first graph) and by Fenerbahce in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ormanspor will expected to score 77 points and the Fenerbahce 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Var	Ormanspor	Fenerbahce
FG%	0.52	0.60
ASS	18.40	21.20
DRB	21.70	23.70
AST-TO	1.51	1.74
TRB	29.30	32.10
FTM	15.50	14.20
BL	2.90	2.10
FTA	21.00	17.90
PF-Fewer	16.40	16.40
ST	4.50	6.90
TO-Fewer	12.20	12.20
Ftper	0.74	0.79
ORBper	0.35	0.35
ORB	7.60	8.30

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Darussafaka vs Turk Telekom at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Darussafaka and Turk Telekom for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Darussafaka	1.8	1.69
Turk Telekom	2	2.46
Darussafaka HC	-1.5	-3.50
Turk Telekom HC	+1.5	3.50
Point Line	163.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 2	H	Anadolu Efes	L	70	81	6	8	L 2	79	76
Dec 27	H	Tofas	L	72	85	6	7	L 1	71	80
Dec 13	H	Gaziantep	W	82	75	6	6	W 2	90	82
Dec 5	A	Fethiye	W	78	54	5	6	W 1	71	58
Dec 2	H	Besiktas	L	82	86	4	6	L 1	81	84
Nov 21	A	Ormanspor	W	80	64	4	5	W 2	73	68
Nov 14	H	Galatasaray	W	91	82	3	5	W 1	85	81
Nov 8	A	Fenerbahce	L	79	90	2	5	L 1	85	82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 2	A	Tofas	L	64	78	9	6	L 1	63	74
Dec 27	H	Socar Spor	W	89	71	9	5	W 1	90	72
Dec 19	A	Gaziantep	L	66	70	8	5	L 1	73	77
Dec 13	H	Fethiye	W	87	75	8	4	W 1	80	81
Dec 5	A	Besiktas	L	60	94	7	4	L 1	60	92
Dec 2	H	Ormanspor	W	83	64	7	3	W 1	75	68
Nov 21	A	Galatasaray	L	89	94	6	3	L 2	83	93
Nov 14	H	Fenerbahce	L	81	82	6	2	L 1	87	75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Darussafaka (in the first graph) and by Turk Telekom in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Darussafaka will expected to score 81 points and the Turk Telekom 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Var	Darussafaka	Turk Telekom
FG%	0.51	0.54
ASS	18.30	18.30
DRB	21.20	25.70
AST-TO	1.51	1.51
TRB	32.30	34.70
FTM	15.90	14.20
BL	2.90	2.30
FTA	20.00	19.80
PF-Fewer	22.90	19.30
ST	7.60	4.50
TO-Fewer	12.10	12.10
Ftper	0.80	0.72
ORBper	0.52	0.35
ORB	11.10	8.90

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Petkim Spor vs Buyukcekmece at 10 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Petkim Spor and Buyukcekmece for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 10 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Petkim Spor	1.36	2.71
Buyukcekmece	3.1	1.59
Petkim Spor HC	-6.5	4.00
Buyukcekmece HC	+6.5	-4.00
Point Line	162.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 3	H	Bahcesehir	L	72	77	5	8	L 3	73	77
Dec 27	A	Turk Telekom	L	71	89	5	7	L 2	72	87
Dec 6	H	Anadolu Efes	L	71	75	5	6	L 1	80	71
Dec 1	H	Gaziantep	W	67	66	5	5