2021 01 12 BCL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Igokea vs Limoges at 12 January 2021
Peristeri vs Rytas Vilnius at 12 January 2021
Brose Bamberg vs Bilbao at 12 January 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Oostende at 12 January 2021
Dijon vs Tofas at 12 January 2021
Fortitudo Bologna vs Karsiyaka at 12 January 2021
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Turk Telekom at 13 January 2021
Darussafaka vs Brindisi at 13 January 2021
Strasbourg vs VEF Riga at 13 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Igokea vs Limoges at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Igokea and Limoges for BCL, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Igokea

2.2

2.36

Limoges

1.67

1.73

Igokea HC

+2.5

3.00

Limoges HC

-2.5

-3.00

Point Line

151.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Igokea are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 24

A

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

L

68

84

2

2

69

81

Dec 22

H

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

W

75

73

2

1

76

71

Nov 11

H

Turk Telekom

W

77

66

1

1

79

67

Oct 28

A

CSP Limoges

L

75

80

0

1

78

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Limoges are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

H

Turk Telekom

L

70

75

1

3

72

76

Dec 9

A

Turk Telekom

L

73

76

1

2

75

78

Nov 11

H

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

L

75

81

1

1

76

78

Oct 28

H

BC Igokea

W

80

75

1

0

84

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Igokea and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Limoges.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Limoges and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Igokea.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Igokea (in the first graph) and by Limoges in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Igokea will expected to score 77 points and the Limoges 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Igokea

Limoges

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

16.20

17.80

DRB

23.80

23.00

AST-TO

1.00

1.32

TRB

32.20

32.20

FTM

15.50

10.00

BL

1.50

1.80

FTA

20.80

14.00

PF-Fewer

23.00

20.00

ST

6.50

6.20

TO-Fewer

16.20

13.50

Ftper

0.75

0.71

ORBper

0.36

0.40

ORB

8.50

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Peristeri vs Rytas Vilnius at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and Rytas Vilnius for BCL, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Peristeri

1.47

1.37

Rytas Vilnius

2.7

3.70

Peristeri HC

-4.5

-6.50

Rytas Vilnius HC

+4.5

6.50

Point Line

156.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

H

Strasbourg IG

L

76

79

1

3

83

81

Dec 8

A

Strasbourg IG

L

57

77

1

2

62

79

Nov 10

H

BC VEF Riga

L

81

84

1

1

87

82

Oct 27

A

Lietuvos Rytas

W

106

88

1

0

95

91

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Rytas Vilnius are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

A

BC VEF Riga

L

60

84

1

3

64

82

Dec 8

H

BC VEF Riga

L

81

85

1

2

87

83

Nov 10

A

Strasbourg IG

W

83

81

1

1

91

83

Oct 27

H

Peristeri BC

L

88

106

0

1

86

106

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Rytas Vilnius.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Rytas Vilnius and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Peristeri (in the first graph) and by Rytas Vilnius in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Peristeri will expected to score 85 points and the Rytas Vilnius 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Peristeri

Rytas Vilnius

FG%

0.55

0.48

ASS

19.20

17.20

DRB

19.80

18.50

AST-TO

1.30

1.27

TRB

32.50

29.20

FTM

9.80

17.20

BL

2.20

1.80

FTA

13.80

23.20

PF-Fewer

19.00

20.50

ST

8.00

6.20

TO-Fewer

14.80

13.50

Ftper

0.71

0.74

ORBper

0.65

0.58

ORB

12.80

10.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brose Bamberg vs Bilbao at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brose Bamberg and Bilbao for BCL, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brose Bamberg

2.17

2.56

Bilbao

1.7

1.64

Brose Bamberg HC

+2.5

3.50

Bilbao HC

-2.5

-3.50

Point Line

164.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brose Bamberg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

76

70

4

0

81

72

Dec 8

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

83

82

3

0

88

84

Nov 10

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

77

71

2

0

88

77

Oct 27

A

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

100

63

1

0

97

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

H

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

82

54

2

2

80

66

Dec 8

A

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

69

64

1

2

67

78

Nov 10

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

71

77

0

2

79

74

Oct 27

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

72

81

0

1

77

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brose Bamberg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brose Bamberg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brose Bamberg (in the first graph) and by Bilbao in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brose Bamberg will expected to score 82 points and the Bilbao 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brose Bamberg

Bilbao

FG%

0.62

0.46

ASS

20.20

15.20

DRB

24.00

25.50

AST-TO

1.26

1.22

TRB

31.20

36.20

FTM

12.00

12.50

BL

5.80

1.00

FTA

17.20

16.80

PF-Fewer

20.20

19.80

ST

5.50

8.50

TO-Fewer

16.00

12.50

Ftper

0.70

0.75

ORBper

0.30

0.42

ORB

7.20

10.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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San Pablo Burgos vs Oostende at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between San Pablo Burgos and Oostende for BCL, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

San Pablo Burgos

1.08

1.56

Oostende

8

2.79

San Pablo Burgos HC

-15.5

-4.50

Oostende HC

+15.5

4.50

Point Line

166.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

A

Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul

W

74

71

3

1

70

76

Dec 9

H

Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul

W

100

70

2

1

94

75

Nov 18

H

Enel Brindisi

W

93

71

1

1

89

65

Nov 10

A

Telenet BC Oostende

L

98

99

0

1

86

95

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Oostende are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

A

Enel Brindisi

L

81

93

1

3

78

85

Dec 9

H

Enel Brindisi

L

80

92

1

2

77

84

Nov 10

H

Hereda San Pablo Burgos

W

99

98

1

1

102

85

Oct 28

A

Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul

L

74

79

0

1

70

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Oostende.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Oostende and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by San Pablo Burgos (in the first graph) and by Oostende in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, San Pablo Burgos will expected to score 85 points and the Oostende 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

San Pablo Burgos

Oostende

FG%

0.59

0.56

ASS

25.80

18.50

DRB

21.80

24.00

AST-TO

2.58

1.25

TRB

31.20

32.80

FTM

12.80

14.50

BL

2.80

2.20

FTA

17.80

19.80

PF-Fewer

19.00

20.80

ST

9.80

6.00

TO-Fewer

10.00

14.80

Ftper

0.72

0.73

ORBper

0.44

0.37

ORB

9.50

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Dijon vs Tofas at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dijon and Tofas for BCL, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Dijon

2.05

4.41

Tofas

1.78

1.29

Dijon HC

+1.5

7.50

Tofas HC

-1.5

-7.50

Point Line

157.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dijon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

A

CEZ Nymburk

L

54

94

3

1

58

83

Nov 18

A

Tofas SC

W

87

81

3

0

86

77

Nov 3

H

CEZ Nymburk

W

85

61

2

0

92

54

Oct 20

H

Keravnos Strovolou

W

91

79

1

0

80

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

H

Keravnos Strovolou

W

78

67

2

2

68

74

Nov 18

H

JDA Dijon Basket

L

81

87

1

2

82

88

Nov 10

H

CEZ Nymburk

L

93

96

1

1

100

85

Nov 3

A

Keravnos Strovolou

W

84

74

1

0

74

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dijon and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dijon.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Dijon (in the first graph) and by Tofas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Dijon will expected to score 81 points and the Tofas 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Dijon

Tofas

FG%

0.50

0.49

ASS

18.50

23.00

DRB

24.00

24.80

AST-TO

1.52

1.77

TRB

34.20

36.80

FTM

8.20

12.00

BL

4.20

3.50

FTA

11.50

14.50

PF-Fewer

19.50

18.20

ST

8.80

10.00

TO-Fewer

12.20

13.00

Ftper

0.72

0.83

ORBper

0.42

0.48

ORB

10.20

12.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fortitudo Bologna vs Karsiyaka at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fortitudo Bologna and Karsiyaka for BCL, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fortitudo Bologna

3.4

3.43

Karsiyaka

1.32

1.41

Fortitudo Bologna HC

+6.5

6.00

Karsiyaka HC

-6.5

-6.00

Point Line

154.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 5

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

69

80

0

4

74

82

Dec 23

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

54

82

0

3

62

89

Dec 8

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

64

69

0

2

73

75

Oct 27

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

63

100

0

1

70

96

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 5

H

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

80

69

2

2

78

84

Dec 23

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

70

76

1

2

78

73

Dec 8

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

82

83

1

1

91

79

Oct 27

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

81

72

1

0

92

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fortitudo Bologna (in the first graph) and by Karsiyaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fortitudo Bologna will expected to score 74 points and the Karsiyaka 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fortitudo Bologna

Karsiyaka

FG%

0.44

0.53

ASS

16.00

17.00

DRB

22.50

20.50

AST-TO

0.99

1.73

TRB

29.50

28.50

FTM

8.20

13.50

BL

4.00

2.20

FTA

14.00

17.80

PF-Fewer

20.00

17.50

ST

7.50

5.50

TO-Fewer

16.20

9.80

Ftper

0.59

0.76

ORBper

0.31

0.39

ORB

7.00

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Hapoel Jerusalem vs Turk Telekom at 13 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hapoel Jerusalem and Turk Telekom for BCL, which will take place on 13 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Hapoel Jerusalem

1.42

1.47

Turk Telekom

2.85

3.11

Hapoel Jerusalem HC

-5.5

-5.50

Turk Telekom HC

+5.5

5.50

Point Line

168.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Jerusalem are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 24

H

BC Igokea

W

84

68

2

2

89

74

Dec 22

A