2021 01 12 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bournemouth vs Millwall at 12 January 2021
Luton vs QPR at 12 January 2021
Brentford vs Bristol City at 13 January 2021


Bournemouth vs Millwall at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bournemouth and Millwall for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bournemouth

1.68

1.80

-4.0

Draw

3.76

4.00

-1.6

Millwall

5.30

5.13

0.6

Over 2.5

2.06

2.09

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.78

1.92

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Millwall (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bournemouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance at home.
Bournemouth, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Stoke

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Brentford

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Luton

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Wycombe

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Huddersfield

H

5

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Swansea

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Dec

Barnsley

A

4

0

W

O

N

01 Dec

Preston

H

2

3

L

O

G


Millwall in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Millwall in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance as a guest.
Millwall, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Coventry

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Middlesbrough

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Derby

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Birmingham

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bournemouth and the red line for guest team, Millwall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bournemouth

18%

32%

28%

23%

Millwall

39%

40%

13%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.66 goals and Millwall to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.56 goals and Millwall to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.80

1

5.13

2-3

1.95

2

3.88

4+

4.46

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.80

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.10

3.87

3.76

2-3 goals

1.66

4.01

6.75

4+ goals

1.84

4.15

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.71

4.05

5.94

Un 1.5

2.10

3.87

3.76

Ov 2.5

1.48

8.87

4.70

Un 2.5

2.24

2.66

5.66

Ov 3.5

1.84

4.15

4.67

Un 3.5

1.79

3.96

5.32

Goal-Goal

2.16

2.76

5.72

No Goal

1.54

7.31

4.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.61

6.94

4.26

NG+Un 2.5

1.69

7.31

4.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Luton vs QPR at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Luton and QPR for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Luton

2.33

2.00

7.1

Draw

3.35

3.76

-3.3

QPR

3.13

4.29

-8.6

Over 2.5

2.08

2.11

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.78

1.90

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Luton (7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance at home.
Luton, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Bristol City

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Reading

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Middlesbrough

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Preston

H

3

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Swansea

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Dec

Norwich

H

3

1

W

O

G


QPR in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance as a guest.
QPR, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Reading

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Bristol City

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Luton and the red line for guest team, QPR.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Luton

20%

34%

25%

21%

QPR

34%

42%

14%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.32 goals and QPR to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.48 goals and QPR to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Luton to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.73

1

5.00

2-3

1.99

2

3.91

4+

4.35

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.73

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.94

3.19

2-3 goals

1.90

3.51

5.28

4+ goals

1.90

4.18

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.90

3.70

4.91

Un 1.5

2.31

3.94

3.19

Ov 2.5

1.59

8.65

3.93

Un 2.5

2.61

2.48

4.68

Ov 3.5

1.90

4.18

4.26

Un 3.5

2.03

3.65

4.30

Goal-Goal

2.33

2.67

5.13

No Goal

1.72

6.94

3.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

7.00

3.74

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

6.94

3.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Brentford vs Bristol City at 13 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brentford

1.60

1.99

-12.2

Draw

4.04

3.77

1.8

Bristol City

5.87

4.31

6.2

Over 2.5

1.85

2.05

-5.3

Under 2.5

1.98

1.95

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bristol City, Under 2.5 (1.8 %, 6.2 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brentford in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance at home.
Brentford, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Bournemouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Cardiff

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

Reading

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Watford

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Dec

Derby

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Blackburn

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 Dec

Rotherham

A

2

0

W

U

N


Bristol City in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Luton

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Wycombe

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Dec

Preston

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Millwall

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Rotherham

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Dec

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

QPR

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brentford

19%

33%

28%

20%

Bristol City

33%

42%

16%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.87 goals and Bristol City to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.49 goals and Bristol City to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.02

1

5.32

2-3

1.93

2

3.79

4+

4.33

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.33

Un 1.5

4.02

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

4.08

3.15

2-3 goals

1.87

3.68

5.19

4+ goals

1.99

3.67

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.90

3.68

4.93

Un 1.5

2.28

4.08

3.15

Ov 2.5

1.61

7.71

3.98

Un 2.5

2.54

2.54

4.71

Ov 3.5

1.99

3.67

4.44

Un 3.5

1.98

3.80

4.29

Goal-Goal

2.31

2.68

5.15

No Goal

1.70

7.43

3.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

6.43

3.82

NG+Un 2.5

1.84

7.43

3.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *