Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Bournemouth vs Millwall at 12 January 2021
Luton vs QPR at 12 January 2021
Brentford vs Bristol City at 13 January 2021
Bournemouth vs Millwall at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bournemouth and Millwall for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bournemouth |
1.68 |
1.80 |
-4.0 |
|
Draw |
3.76 |
4.00 |
-1.6 |
|
Millwall |
5.30 |
5.13 |
0.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.09 |
-0.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.92 |
-4.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Millwall (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bournemouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance at home.
Bournemouth, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Stoke |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Luton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
04 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Preston |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Millwall in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Millwall in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance as a guest.
Millwall, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Millwall was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Derby |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Birmingham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bournemouth and the red line for guest team, Millwall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bournemouth |
18% |
32% |
28% |
23% |
|
Millwall |
39% |
40% |
13% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.66 goals and Millwall to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.56 goals and Millwall to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.80 |
|
1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.10 |
3.87 |
3.76 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.66 |
4.01 |
6.75 |
|
4+ goals |
1.84 |
4.15 |
4.67 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |
4.05 |
5.94 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.87 |
3.76 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
8.87 |
4.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.66 |
5.66 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.15 |
4.67 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.79 |
3.96 |
5.32 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.16 |
2.76 |
5.72 |
|
No Goal |
1.54 |
7.31 |
4.69 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
6.94 |
4.26 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.69 |
7.31 |
4.27 |
Go to Top
Luton vs QPR at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Luton and QPR for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Luton |
2.33 |
2.00 |
7.1 |
|
Draw |
3.35 |
3.76 |
-3.3 |
|
QPR |
3.13 |
4.29 |
-8.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.11 |
-0.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.90 |
-3.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Luton (7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance at home.
Luton, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Reading |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Preston |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
QPR in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance as a guest.
QPR, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Luton and the red line for guest team, QPR.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Luton |
20% |
34% |
25% |
21% |
|
QPR |
34% |
42% |
14% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.32 goals and QPR to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.48 goals and QPR to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Luton to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.73 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.35 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.94 |
3.19 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.90 |
3.51 |
5.28 |
|
4+ goals |
1.90 |
4.18 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
3.70 |
4.91 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.94 |
3.19 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.59 |
8.65 |
3.93 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.48 |
4.68 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.18 |
4.26 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.03 |
3.65 |
4.30 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.33 |
2.67 |
5.13 |
|
No Goal |
1.72 |
6.94 |
3.63 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
7.00 |
3.74 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.94 |
3.40 |
Go to Top
Brentford vs Bristol City at 13 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Brentford |
1.60 |
1.99 |
-12.2 |
|
Draw |
4.04 |
3.77 |
1.8 |
|
Bristol City |
5.87 |
4.31 |
6.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.05 |
-5.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.95 |
0.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bristol City, Under 2.5 (1.8 %, 6.2 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Brentford in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance at home.
Brentford, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Reading |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Watford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Dec |
Derby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Bristol City in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Luton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Preston |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
QPR |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Brentford |
19% |
33% |
28% |
20% |
|
Bristol City |
33% |
42% |
16% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.87 goals and Bristol City to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.49 goals and Bristol City to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.02 |
|
1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
1.93 |
|
2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.33 |
|
3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
|
Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |
|
NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.28 |
4.08 |
3.15 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.87 |
3.68 |
5.19 |
|
4+ goals |
1.99 |
3.67 |
4.44 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
3.68 |
4.93 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
4.08 |
3.15 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.71 |
3.98 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.54 |
4.71 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.99 |
3.67 |
4.44 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.80 |
4.29 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.31 |
2.68 |
5.15 |
|
No Goal |
1.70 |
7.43 |
3.62 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.43 |
3.82 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.43 |
3.41 |
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