2021 01 12 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Torquay vs Solihull at 12 January 2021
Halifax vs Hartlepool at 12 January 2021
Altrincham vs King’s Lynn at 12 January 2021


Torquay vs Solihull at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Solihull for Conference (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

2.11

1.94

4.2

Draw

3.01

4.05

-8.5

Solihull

3.74

4.18

-2.8

Over 2.5

1.94

1.96

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.83

2.04

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torquay (4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Yeovil

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Dec

Weymouth

A

4

3

W

O

G

26 Dec

Yeovil

H

6

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

King’s Lynn

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Wrexham

H

3

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Wealdstone

A

2

1

W

O

G


Solihull in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance as a guest.
Solihull, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Jan

Chesterfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Halifax

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Bromley

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Sutton

A

1

4

L

O

G

01 Dec

Hartlepool

H

2

0

W

U

N

11 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Maidenhead

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Solihull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

23%

25%

26%

26%

Solihull

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.48 goals and Solihull to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.54 goals and Solihull to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.86

1

5.68

2-3

2.06

2

4.33

4+

3.91

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

3.12

3.05

2-3 goals

1.72

5.23

4.38

4+ goals

1.80

3.61

5.95

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.52

4.82

Un 1.5

2.85

3.12

3.05

Ov 2.5

1.55

7.20

4.65

Un 2.5

2.65

2.78

3.80

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.61

5.95

Un 3.5

2.00

4.23

3.80

Goal-Goal

2.07

3.01

5.43

No Goal

1.84

6.11

3.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

5.65

4.41

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

6.11

3.08


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Hartlepool at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

2.57

2.43

2.2

Draw

3.44

3.75

-2.4

Hartlepool

2.53

3.12

-7.5

Over 2.5

1.78

2.01

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.99

1.99

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Halifax (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Altrincham

H

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Eastleigh

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Aldershot

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Weymouth

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Barnet

H

5

2

W

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Wealdstone

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Halifax

H

3

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Stockport

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Solihull

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

24%

34%

24%

18%

Hartlepool

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.32 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.34 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.35 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.89

1

5.41

2-3

2.05

2

4.10

4+

3.97

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.57

2.99

2-3 goals

2.33

4.14

3.03

4+ goals

2.45

3.27

3.50

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.79

3.18

Un 1.5

2.60

3.57

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.44

2.79

Un 2.5

2.95

2.64

3.55

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.27

3.50

Un 3.5

2.42

3.92

3.02

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.72

3.61

No Goal

2.09

6.49

2.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

5.35

2.80

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.49

2.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Altrincham vs King’s Lynn at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

1.96

2.14

-4.3

Draw

3.65

3.89

-1.7

King’s Lynn

3.49

3.62

-1.0

Over 2.5

1.72

1.98

-7.6

Under 2.5

2.08

2.02

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Sutton

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Jan

Stockport

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Dec

Halifax

A

2

3

L

O

G

26 Dec

Stockport

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Dag and Red

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wrexham

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Maidenhead

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Bromley

H

0

1

L

U

N


King’s Lynn in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Halifax

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Hartlepool

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Bromley

H

1

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Dover Athletic

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Nov

Sutton

A

1

5

L

O

G

31 Oct

Woking

H

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

24%

28%

25%

22%

King’s Lynn

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.66 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Altrincham to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.45 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Altrincham to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.83

1

5.52

2-3

2.07

2

4.26

4+

3.89

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.83

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.26

2.97

2-3 goals

1.95

4.74

3.63

4+ goals

2.02

3.43

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.18

3.94

Un 1.5

2.81

3.26

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.73

6.73

3.66

Un 2.5

2.82

2.73

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.43

4.67

Un 3.5

2.18

4.09

3.37

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.88

4.50

No Goal

1.98

6.15

3.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.43

3.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.15

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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