2021 01 12 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Heracles vs FC Emmen at 12 January 2021
Vitesse vs Utrecht at 12 January 2021
Den Haag vs VVV Venlo at 13 January 2021
Feyenoord vs Zwolle at 13 January 2021
For Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam at 13 January 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar at 13 January 2021
Heerenveen vs Waalwijk at 14 January 2021
Twente vs Ajax at 14 January 2021
Willem II vs Groningen at 14 January 2021


Heracles vs FC Emmen at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and FC Emmen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Heracles

1.76

1.95

-5.5

Draw

3.90

4.20

-1.8

FC Emmen

4.43

4.02

2.3

Over 2.5

1.77

1.69

2.7

Under 2.5

2.10

2.44

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Heracles in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance at home.
Heracles, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Vitesse

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Groningen

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Heerenveen

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Feyenoord

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Ajax

A

0

5

L

O

N

07 Nov

VVV Venlo

A

2

3

L

O

G


FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance as a guest.
FC Emmen, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Twente

H

1

4

L

O

G

22 Dec

Utrecht

H

2

3

L

O

G

18 Dec

Zwolle

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Ajax

H

0

5

L

O

N

22 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Vitesse

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, FC Emmen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Heracles

19%

22%

31%

28%

FC Emmen

32%

34%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.8 goals and FC Emmen to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.67 goals and FC Emmen to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

5.05

1

7.35

2-3

2.10

2

4.72

4+

3.08

3

3.79

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.35

Un 1.5

5.05

5

10.10

Ov 2.5

1.70

6+

25.64

Un 2.5

2.44

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.08

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.48

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

3.19

3.05

2-3 goals

1.64

6.43

4.25

4+ goals

2.15

3.19

4.51

Ov 1.5

1.82

4.55

4.35

Un 1.5

2.79

3.19

3.05

Ov 2.5

1.72

5.77

4.09

Un 2.5

2.43

3.01

3.90

Ov 3.5

2.15

3.19

4.51

Un 3.5

1.87

4.96

3.81

Goal-Goal

2.15

3.11

4.68

No Goal

1.75

7.29

3.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

4.64

4.04

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

7.29

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Vitesse vs Utrecht at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vitesse and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vitesse

2.31

1.66

17.0

Draw

3.68

4.65

-5.7

Utrecht

2.88

5.56

-16.7

Over 2.5

1.67

1.80

-4.3

Under 2.5

2.25

2.25

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Vitesse (17 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vitesse in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance at home.
Vitesse, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 19 points, 90.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Heracles

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

Feyenoord

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Zwolle

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

For Sittard

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Groningen

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

FC Emmen

H

3

1

W

O

G


Utrecht in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance as a guest.
Utrecht, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Groningen

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Dec

FC Emmen

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

For Sittard

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Feyenoord

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vitesse and the red line for guest team, Utrecht.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vitesse

19%

15%

38%

28%

Utrecht

42%

33%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.55 goals and Utrecht to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.75 goals and Utrecht to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

4.90

1

8.00

2-3

1.91

2

4.18

4+

3.68

3

3.51

Ov 1.5

1.26

4

5.92

Un 1.5

4.90

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.80

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.26

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

3.68

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.34

2.58

3.19

2-3 goals

1.30

10.69

7.18

4+ goals

1.93

3.13

6.18

Ov 1.5

1.47

5.85

6.80

Un 1.5

3.34

2.58

3.19

Ov 2.5

1.45

6.40

6.55

Un 2.5

2.02

3.46

4.61

Ov 3.5

1.93

3.13

6.18

Un 3.5

1.57

5.69

5.31

Goal-Goal

1.76

3.48

6.86

No Goal

1.57

6.67

4.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

4.87

6.14

NG+Un 2.5

1.80

6.67

4.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Den Haag vs VVV Venlo at 13 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Den Haag and VVV Venlo for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Den Haag

2.60

2.60

0.0

Draw

3.59

3.41

1.5

VVV Venlo

2.54

3.10

-7.1

Over 2.5

1.71

1.96

-7.5

Under 2.5

2.17

2.04

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Den Haag in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance at home.
Den Haag, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Waalwijk

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Zwolle

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Dec

Ajax

H

2

4

L

O

G

12 Dec

FC Emmen

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Utrecht

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

6

L

O

N

07 Nov

Twente

H

2

4

L

O

G


VVV Venlo in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance as a guest.
VVV Venlo, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Willem II

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

4

L

O

G

19 Dec

Twente

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Feyenoord

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Dec

Waalwijk

A

2

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Zwolle

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Willem II

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Heracles

H

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Den Haag and the red line for guest team, VVV Venlo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Den Haag

21%

39%

20%

20%

VVV Venlo

20%

48%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.38 goals and VVV Venlo to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.38 goals and VVV Venlo to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.81

0-1

4.52

1

5.59

2-3

1.98

2

3.73

4+

3.66

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.43

Un 1.5

4.52

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.59

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

2.72

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

5.26

2.17

2-3 goals

2.93

2.70

3.48

4+ goals

2.04

4.27

3.64

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.10

3.53

Un 1.5

2.87

5.26

2.17

Ov 2.5

1.91

7.95

2.86

Un 2.5

4.22

2.14

3.40

Ov 3.5

2.04

4.27

3.64

Un 3.5

2.91

3.17

2.94

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.51

4.17

No Goal

2.37

8.76

2.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

6.92

2.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

8.76

2.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Feyenoord vs Zwolle at 13 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Feyenoord and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Feyenoord

1.46

1.68

-9.0

Draw

4.66

4.65

0.0

Zwolle

6.47

5.32

3.3

Over 2.5

1.61

1.67

-2.2

Under 2.5

2.38

2.49

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zwolle (3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Feyenoord in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Feyenoord in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Feyenoord’s performance at home.
Feyenoord, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Feyenoord was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Heerenveen

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

Vitesse

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Dec

VVV Venlo

A

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Heracles

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Utrecht

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

For Sittard

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Groningen

H

2

0

W

U

N


Zwolle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Den Haag

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Ajax

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Vitesse

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

VVV Venlo

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Utrecht

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

For Sittard

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Feyenoord and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Feyenoord

17%

14%

39%

30%

Zwolle

39%

31%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Feyenoord to score 2.23 goals and Zwolle to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and the home team Feyenoord to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Feyenoord to score 1.82 goals and Zwolle to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Feyenoord to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

5.68

1

9.26

2-3

1.95

2

4.41

4+

3.18

3

3.51

Ov 1.5

1.21

4

5.52

Un 1.5

5.68

5

10.10

Ov 2.5

1.67

6+

29.41

Un 2.5

2.48

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.18

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.45

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-