2021 01 12 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Granada vs Osasuna at 12 January 2021
Ath Madrid vs Sevilla at 12 January 2021


Granada vs Osasuna at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Granada and Osasuna for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Granada

2.43

2.10

6.5

Draw

3.05

3.79

-6.4

Osasuna

3.36

3.86

-3.9

Over 2.5

2.41

2.07

6.8

Under 2.5

1.59

1.93

-11.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Granada, Over 2.5 (6.5 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Granada in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Granada in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Granada’s performance at home.
Granada, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Granada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Barcelona

H

0

4

L

O

N

03 Jan

Eibar

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Dec

Betis

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Elche

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Huesca

H

3

3

D

O

G

29 Nov

Celta

A

1

3

L

O

G


Osasuna in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance as a guest.
Osasuna, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Real Madrid

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Jan

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Dec

Alaves

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Elche

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Villarreal

H

1

3

L

O

G

11 Dec

Valladolid

A

2

3

L

O

G

06 Dec

Betis

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Barcelona

A

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Granada and the red line for guest team, Osasuna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Granada

21%

36%

21%

23%

Osasuna

36%

36%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Granada to score 1.19 goals and Osasuna to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Granada to score 1.45 goals and Osasuna to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Granada to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.61

1

4.95

2-3

2.08

2

4.17

4+

4.13

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.61

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

3.69

3.64

2-3 goals

2.12

3.76

3.82

4+ goals

1.97

3.90

4.25

Ov 1.5

2.07

3.81

3.95

Un 1.5

2.20

3.69

3.64

Ov 2.5

1.74

7.79

3.35

Un 2.5

2.60

2.55

4.50

Ov 3.5

1.97

3.90

4.25

Un 3.5

2.15

3.73

3.75

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.68

4.15

No Goal

1.76

6.53

3.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

6.16

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

6.53

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ath Madrid vs Sevilla at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Madrid

2.01

1.72

8.4

Draw

3.17

4.42

-8.9

Sevilla

4.43

5.26

-3.6

Over 2.5

2.53

1.86

14.2

Under 2.5

1.53

2.16

-19.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Madrid, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 14.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance at home.
Ath Madrid, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 91.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Alaves

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Getafe

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Sociedad

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Elche

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Valladolid

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Barcelona

H

1

0

W

U

N


Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Sociedad

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Villarreal

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Madrid

18%

22%

31%

28%

Sevilla

40%

35%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.31 goals and Sevilla to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.69 goals and Sevilla to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

4.35

1

6.45

2-3

1.98

2

4.31

4+

3.80

3

3.65

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.35

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.07

3.54

2-3 goals

1.46

6.49

6.25

4+ goals

1.79

3.60

6.12

Ov 1.5

1.56

5.09

6.20

Un 1.5

2.56

3.07

3.54

Ov 2.5

1.45

7.36

5.71

Un 2.5

2.16

3.02

4.86

Ov 3.5

1.79

3.60

6.12

Un 3.5

1.68

4.81

5.04

Goal-Goal

1.90

3.21

6.14

No Goal

1.56

6.85

4.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.60

5.58

5.15

NG+Un 2.5

1.79

6.85

4.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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