Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Charlton vs Rochdale at 12 January 2021
Charlton vs Rochdale at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Charlton and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Charlton |
1.81 |
2.48 |
-14.9 |
|
Draw |
3.72 |
3.64 |
0.6 |
|
Rochdale |
4.35 |
3.11 |
9.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.11 |
-5.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.90 |
0.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rochdale, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 9.2 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Charlton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance at home.
Charlton, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Ipswich |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Rochdale in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
24 Nov |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Nov |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Charlton and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Charlton |
25% |
35% |
23% |
16% |
|
Rochdale |
29% |
36% |
24% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.67 goals and Rochdale to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Charlton to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.31 goals and Rochdale to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.72 |
|
1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.31 |
|
3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |
|
NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.59 |
3.64 |
2.96 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.47 |
3.89 |
2.96 |
|
4+ goals |
2.39 |
3.18 |
3.74 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.63 |
3.17 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.64 |
2.96 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.49 |
2.77 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.60 |
3.50 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.39 |
3.18 |
3.74 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.80 |
2.96 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.63 |
3.65 |
|
No Goal |
2.14 |
6.35 |
2.67 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
5.49 |
2.77 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.35 |
2.65 |
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