Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Exeter vs Bolton at 12 January 2021
Harrogate vs Carlisle at 12 January 2021
Scunthorpe vs Salford at 12 January 2021
Oldham vs Mansfield at 13 January 2021
Exeter vs Bolton at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Exeter and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Exeter |
1.81 |
2.07 |
-6.9 |
|
Draw |
3.79 |
3.76 |
0.2 |
|
Bolton |
4.24 |
3.97 |
1.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.01 |
-5.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.99 |
0.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bolton, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 1.6 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Exeter in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance at home.
Exeter, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Colchester |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Bolton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
24 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Exeter and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Exeter |
17% |
40% |
18% |
24% |
|
Bolton |
34% |
37% |
21% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.72 goals and Bolton to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.49 goals and Bolton to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
3.91 |
|
1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.00 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |
|
5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |
|
NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.90 |
4.41 |
4.06 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.35 |
3.35 |
3.62 |
|
4+ goals |
1.84 |
4.17 |
4.63 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.59 |
3.91 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.90 |
4.41 |
4.06 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
8.30 |
3.23 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.44 |
5.06 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.17 |
4.63 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.65 |
3.76 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.69 |
2.65 |
3.98 |
|
No Goal |
1.62 |
7.76 |
3.91 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.70 |
2.91 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.76 |
3.58 |
Go to Top
Harrogate vs Carlisle at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Carlisle for League Two (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Harrogate |
3.73 |
2.96 |
7.0 |
|
Draw |
3.58 |
3.66 |
-0.6 |
|
Carlisle |
2.01 |
2.57 |
-10.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.17 |
-6.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.85 |
1.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Harrogate, Under 2.5 (7 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance at home.
Harrogate, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Carlisle in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance as a guest.
Carlisle, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Carlisle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Harrogate |
32% |
32% |
24% |
12% |
|
Carlisle |
27% |
36% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 0.98 goals and Carlisle to score 1.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the guest team Carlisle to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.16 goals and Carlisle to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.48 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.34 |
3.30 |
2.52 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.70 |
4.35 |
2.51 |
|
4+ goals |
3.19 |
3.01 |
2.82 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.82 |
2.60 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |
3.30 |
2.52 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
6.22 |
2.31 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.58 |
2.70 |
2.85 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.19 |
3.01 |
2.82 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.90 |
3.89 |
2.51 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.20 |
2.65 |
3.22 |
|
No Goal |
2.76 |
5.80 |
2.15 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |
5.18 |
2.49 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
5.80 |
2.25 |
Go to Top
Scunthorpe vs Salford at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Scunthorpe |
3.20 |
2.99 |
2.2 |
|
Draw |
3.37 |
3.65 |
-2.3 |
|
Salford |
2.27 |
2.56 |
-5.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.19 |
-3.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.84 |
-1.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance as a guest.
Salford, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Salford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Scunthorpe |
32% |
32% |
23% |
12% |
|
Salford |
27% |
36% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.06 goals and Salford to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.15 goals and Salford to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.46 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.55 |
|
3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.32 |
3.32 |
2.51 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.76 |
4.27 |
2.48 |
|
4+ goals |
3.14 |
3.06 |
2.82 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.87 |
3.80 |
2.58 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.32 |
3.32 |
2.51 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |
6.35 |
2.29 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.62 |
2.69 |
2.84 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.14 |
3.06 |
2.82 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.94 |
3.86 |
2.49 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.23 |
2.64 |
3.21 |
|
No Goal |
2.78 |
5.82 |
2.14 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |
5.26 |
2.46 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
5.82 |
2.24 |
Go to Top
Oldham vs Mansfield at 13 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Oldham and Mansfield for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Oldham |
2.85 |
2.37 |
7.1 |
|
Draw |
3.39 |
3.57 |
-1.5 |
|
Mansfield |
2.45 |
3.36 |
-11.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.19 |
-3.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.84 |
-1.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham (7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Oldham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance at home.
Oldham, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Nov |
Barrow |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
Mansfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance as a guest.
Mansfield, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oldham and the red line for guest team, Mansfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Oldham |
22% |
41% |
18% |
18% |
|
Mansfield |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.15 goals and Mansfield to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.32 goals and Mansfield to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.48 |
|
1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.50 |
|
3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |