# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Burnley vs Man United at 12 January 2021**** Sheffield United vs Newcastle at 12 January 2021**** Wolves vs Everton at 12 January 2021**** Man City vs Brighton at 13 January 2021**** Arsenal vs Crystal Palace at 14 January 2021**

###
Burnley vs Man United at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burnley** and **Man United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **12 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burnley |
7.34 |
3.36 |
16.1 |

Draw |
4.66 |
3.95 |
3.9 |

Man United |
1.46 |
2.23 |
-23.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.90 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.11 |
1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burnley, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.1 %, 3.9 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** at home**.

Burnley,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Everton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Man City |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** as a guest**.

Man United,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 19 points, 90.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burnley** and the red line for guest team, **Man United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burnley |
35% |
28% |
24% |
14% |

Man United |
22% |
32% |
25% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **0.65 ** goals and **Man United** to score **2.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the guest team **Man United ** to win by **1.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
3.60 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.60 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.05 |
3.21 |
2.27 |

2-3 goals |
2.96 |
5.47 |
2.09 |

4+ goals |
3.66 |
3.12 |
2.46 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.18 |
4.28 |
2.21 |

Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
3.21 |
2.27 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.89 |
5.93 |
2.06 |

Un 2.5 |
4.11 |
2.88 |
2.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |
3.12 |
2.46 |

Un 3.5 |
3.26 |
4.41 |
2.15 |

Goal-Goal |
3.33 |
2.90 |
2.82 |

No Goal |
3.39 |
6.38 |
1.83 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
4.75 |
2.34 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.36 |
6.38 |
1.99 |

####
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###
Sheffield United vs Newcastle at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield United** and **Newcastle** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **12 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield United |
2.53 |
3.39 |
-10.0 |

Draw |
3.17 |
4.15 |
-7.4 |

Newcastle |
3.11 |
2.16 |
14.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
1.78 |
16.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
2.28 |
-20.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Over 2.5 (14.1 %, 16.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield United,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Dec |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** as a guest**.

Newcastle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield United** and the red line for guest team, **Newcastle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield United |
37% |
15% |
40% |
8% |

Newcastle |
20% |
31% |
26% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.09** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.72** goals in the game and the guest team **Newcastle ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.59 |

1 |
6.94 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.52 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
3.79 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.59 |

5 |
8.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
7.27 |
2.95 |
1.91 |

2-3 goals |
2.22 |
10.54 |
2.19 |

4+ goals |
6.43 |
2.45 |
2.29 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.96 |
4.68 |
2.23 |

Un 1.5 |
7.27 |
2.95 |
1.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.04 |
4.63 |
2.20 |

Un 2.5 |
3.99 |
3.66 |
2.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.43 |
2.45 |
2.29 |

Un 3.5 |
2.83 |
5.86 |
2.10 |

Goal-Goal |
2.99 |
3.01 |
3.01 |

No Goal |
3.94 |
6.72 |
1.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.71 |
3.77 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.57 |
6.72 |
1.88 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wolves vs Everton at 12 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolves** and **Everton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **12 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolves |
2.54 |
2.95 |
-5.5 |

Draw |
3.14 |
3.85 |
-5.9 |

Everton |
3.11 |
2.49 |
8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
1.94 |
10.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.06 |
-14.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Everton, Over 2.5 (8 %, 10.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** at home**.

Wolves,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** as a guest**.

Everton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolves** and the red line for guest team, **Everton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolves |
31% |
30% |
22% |
17% |

Everton |
25% |
33% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Everton** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Everton** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.65 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.35 |
3.27 |
2.53 |

2-3 goals |
2.79 |
4.69 |
2.33 |

4+ goals |
2.91 |
3.34 |
2.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.84 |
4.08 |
2.48 |

Un 1.5 |
3.35 |
3.27 |
2.53 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
6.29 |
2.27 |

Un 2.5 |
3.67 |
2.71 |
2.79 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.91 |
3.34 |
2.80 |

Un 3.5 |
2.97 |
4.06 |
2.40 |

Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.83 |
3.07 |

No Goal |
2.79 |
6.15 |
2.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |
5.06 |
2.47 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.92 |
6.15 |
2.21 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man City vs Brighton at 13 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **Brighton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **13 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.18 |
1.67 |
-24.9 |

Draw |
7.61 |
4.20 |
10.7 |

Brighton |
15.99 |
6.13 |
10.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.47 |
2.00 |
-18.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.00 |
12.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Brighton, Under 2.5 (10.7 %, 10.1 %, 12.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** as a guest**.

Brighton,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **Brighton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
14% |
38% |
16% |
32% |

Brighton |
44% |
36% |
14% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **2.82 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **0.4 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.21** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **2.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **0.85** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
4.20 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |