Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Burnley vs Man United at 12 January 2021
Sheffield United vs Newcastle at 12 January 2021
Wolves vs Everton at 12 January 2021
Man City vs Brighton at 13 January 2021
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace at 14 January 2021
Burnley vs Man United at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Burnley and Man United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Burnley |
7.34 |
3.36 |
16.1 |
|
Draw |
4.66 |
3.95 |
3.9 |
|
Man United |
1.46 |
2.23 |
-23.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.90 |
-5.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.11 |
1.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.1 %, 3.9 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Burnley in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance at home.
Burnley, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Everton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Man City |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Man United in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance as a guest.
Man United, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 19 points, 90.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burnley and the red line for guest team, Man United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Burnley |
35% |
28% |
24% |
14% |
|
Man United |
22% |
32% |
25% |
22% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 0.65 goals and Man United to score 2.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the guest team Man United to win by 1.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.17 goals and Man United to score 1.46 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
4.05 |
|
1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.10 |
|
2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
3.60 |
|
3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
|
5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
|
6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.60 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.05 |
3.21 |
2.27 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.96 |
5.47 |
2.09 |
|
4+ goals |
3.66 |
3.12 |
2.46 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.18 |
4.28 |
2.21 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
3.21 |
2.27 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.89 |
5.93 |
2.06 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.11 |
2.88 |
2.44 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |
3.12 |
2.46 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.26 |
4.41 |
2.15 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.33 |
2.90 |
2.82 |
|
No Goal |
3.39 |
6.38 |
1.83 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
4.75 |
2.34 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.36 |
6.38 |
1.99 |
Go to Top
Sheffield United vs Newcastle at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield United and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sheffield United |
2.53 |
3.39 |
-10.0 |
|
Draw |
3.17 |
4.15 |
-7.4 |
|
Newcastle |
3.11 |
2.16 |
14.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
1.78 |
16.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
2.28 |
-20.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Over 2.5 (14.1 %, 16.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sheffield United in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance at home.
Sheffield United, at home, had no wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Dec |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Newcastle in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield United and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sheffield United |
37% |
15% |
40% |
8% |
|
Newcastle |
20% |
31% |
26% |
24% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.12 goals and Newcastle to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.19 goals and Newcastle to score 1.53 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the guest team Newcastle to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.59 |
|
1 |
6.94 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.52 |
4+ |
3.38 |
|
3 |
3.79 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.59 |
|
5 |
8.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
|
Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
7.27 |
2.95 |
1.91 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.22 |
10.54 |
2.19 |
|
4+ goals |
6.43 |
2.45 |
2.29 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.96 |
4.68 |
2.23 |
|
Un 1.5 |
7.27 |
2.95 |
1.91 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.04 |
4.63 |
2.20 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.99 |
3.66 |
2.10 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
6.43 |
2.45 |
2.29 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.83 |
5.86 |
2.10 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.99 |
3.01 |
3.01 |
|
No Goal |
3.94 |
6.72 |
1.67 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.71 |
3.77 |
2.73 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.57 |
6.72 |
1.88 |
Go to Top
Wolves vs Everton at 12 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wolves and Everton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 12 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wolves |
2.54 |
2.95 |
-5.5 |
|
Draw |
3.14 |
3.85 |
-5.9 |
|
Everton |
3.11 |
2.49 |
8.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
1.94 |
10.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.06 |
-14.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Everton, Over 2.5 (8 %, 10.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wolves in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance at home.
Wolves, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Everton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance as a guest.
Everton, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Everton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wolves |
31% |
30% |
22% |
17% |
|
Everton |
25% |
33% |
23% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.15 goals and Everton to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.24 goals and Everton to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.88 |
|
1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.13 |
|
2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.65 |
|
3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |
|
5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
|
6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.35 |
3.27 |
2.53 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.79 |
4.69 |
2.33 |
|
4+ goals |
2.91 |
3.34 |
2.80 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.84 |
4.08 |
2.48 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.35 |
3.27 |
2.53 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
6.29 |
2.27 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.67 |
2.71 |
2.79 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.91 |
3.34 |
2.80 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.97 |
4.06 |
2.40 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.83 |
3.07 |
|
No Goal |
2.79 |
6.15 |
2.09 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |
5.06 |
2.47 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.92 |
6.15 |
2.21 |
Go to Top
Man City vs Brighton at 13 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Brighton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Man City |
1.18 |
1.67 |
-24.9 |
|
Draw |
7.61 |
4.20 |
10.7 |
|
Brighton |
15.99 |
6.13 |
10.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.47 |
2.00 |
-18.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.00 |
12.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Brighton, Under 2.5 (10.7 %, 10.1 %, 12.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Man City in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Brighton in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance as a guest.
Brighton, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Man City |
14% |
38% |
16% |
32% |
|
Brighton |
44% |
36% |
14% |
6% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 2.82 goals and Brighton to score 0.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.21 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 2.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.67 goals and Brighton to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
3.66 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
4.20 |
|
3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |
|
NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |