# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** PAOK vs Olympiakos at 13 January 2021**** Aris vs AEK at 14 January 2021**** Atromitos vs Lamia at 14 January 2021**

###
PAOK vs Olympiakos at 13 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **PAOK** and **Olympiakos** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **13 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PAOK |
3.41 |
3.32 |
0.8 |

Draw |
2.77 |
3.26 |
-5.4 |

Olympiakos |
2.43 |
2.55 |
-1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.99 |
-8.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.50 |
3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **PAOK, Under 2.5 (0.8 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PAOK** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PAOK** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance** at home**.

PAOK,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 19 points, 90.5% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Jan |
Volos NFC |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Lamia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Olympiakos** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Olympiakos** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance** as a guest**.

Olympiakos,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
AEK |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
AEK |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Lamia |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Aris |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PAOK** and the red line for guest team, **Olympiakos. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PAOK |
34% |
44% |
17% |
5% |

Olympiakos |
33% |
33% |
26% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Olympiakos** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.24** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Olympiakos** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.77 |
0-1 |
2.68 |

1 |
3.86 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.44 |
4+ |
8.06 |

3 |
4.69 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.59 |

4 |
10.64 |
Un 1.5 |
2.68 |

5 |
38.46 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.97 |

6+ |
250.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.51 |

Gg |
2.28 |
Ov 3.5 |
8.06 |

NoG |
1.78 |
Un 3.5 |
1.14 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.57 |
3.27 |
3.27 |

2-3 goals |
3.94 |
3.48 |
2.18 |

4+ goals |
4.28 |
2.58 |
2.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.00 |
3.25 |
2.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.27 |
3.27 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.34 |
7.02 |
1.79 |

Un 2.5 |
3.30 |
2.56 |
3.25 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.28 |
2.58 |
2.64 |

Un 3.5 |
3.21 |
3.39 |
2.54 |

Goal-Goal |
5.16 |
2.27 |
2.73 |

No Goal |
2.59 |
4.93 |
2.43 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.46 |
6.13 |
1.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.58 |
4.93 |
2.54 |

####
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###
Aris vs AEK at 14 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aris** and **AEK** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **14 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aris |
2.87 |
2.43 |
6.3 |

Draw |
2.96 |
3.52 |
-5.4 |

AEK |
2.54 |
3.29 |
-9.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.60 |
2.30 |
5.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.47 |
1.77 |
-11.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aris, Over 2.5 (6.3 %, 5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aris** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aris** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance** at home**.

Aris,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Jan |
Volos NFC |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Dec |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Larisa |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**AEK** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AEK** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance** as a guest**.

AEK,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Apollon |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Larisa |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aris** and the red line for guest team, **AEK. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aris |
23% |
42% |
21% |
14% |

AEK |
33% |
33% |
31% |
3% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aris** to score **0.96 ** goals and **AEK** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.01** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aris** to score **1.27 ** goals and **AEK** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.88 |

2 |
3.58 |
4+ |
5.52 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |

6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.52 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.08 |
3.88 |
3.83 |

2-3 goals |
2.87 |
3.83 |
2.56 |

4+ goals |
2.03 |
2.55 |
8.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.40 |
3.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.88 |
3.83 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.13 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.66 |
3.90 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.03 |
2.55 |
8.62 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.85 |
2.90 |

Goal-Goal |
3.26 |
2.48 |
3.45 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
6.49 |
3.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
5.38 |
2.53 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.49 |
2.94 |

####
Go to Top

###
Atromitos vs Lamia at 14 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atromitos** and **Lamia** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **14 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atromitos |
1.63 |
1.80 |
-5.8 |

Draw |
3.70 |
3.80 |
-0.7 |

Lamia |
5.47 |
5.56 |
-0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.58 |
-7.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.63 |
1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atromitos** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atromitos** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance** at home**.

Atromitos,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Aris |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Larisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lamia** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lamia** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance** as a guest**.

Lamia,** as a guest**, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Aris |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
PAOK |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Oct |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atromitos** and the red line for guest team, **Lamia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atromitos |
21% |
36% |
23% |
20% |

Lamia |
49% |
34% |
14% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Lamia** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.93** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Lamia** to score **0.72 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.13** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.69** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
2.86 |

1 |
4.07 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
6.45 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.54 |

4 |
8.93 |
Un 1.5 |
2.86 |

5 |
27.78 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.58 |

6+ |
142.86 |
Un 2.5 |
1.63 |

Gg |
2.49 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.45 |

NoG |
1.67 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.00 |
3.37 |
4.93 |

2-3 goals |
1.72 |
4.12 |
5.63 |

4+ goals |
1.63 |
3.97 |
7.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.70 |
4.09 |
5.96 |

Un 1.5 |
2.00 |
3.37 |
4.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.44 |
9.95 |
4.91 |

Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.73 |
6.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.63 |
3.97 |
7.38 |

Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
3.77 |
5.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.53 |
5.66 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
5.75 |
5.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.23 |
3.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
5.75 |
4.87 |

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