2021 01 12 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

PAOK vs Olympiakos at 13 January 2021
Aris vs AEK at 14 January 2021
Atromitos vs Lamia at 14 January 2021


PAOK vs Olympiakos at 13 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 13 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PAOK

3.41

3.32

0.8

Draw

2.77

3.26

-5.4

Olympiakos

2.43

2.55

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.39

2.99

-8.4

Under 2.5

1.57

1.50

3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at PAOK, Under 2.5 (0.8 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PAOK in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance at home.
PAOK, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 19 points, 90.5% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Volos NFC

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Jan

Atromitos

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Larisa

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Panathinaikos

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Lamia

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G


Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance as a guest.
Olympiakos, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Panetolikos

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

A

4

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

AEK

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

Larisa

H

5

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Lamia

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Volos NFC

H

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Aris

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PAOK and the red line for guest team, Olympiakos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PAOK

34%

44%

17%

5%

Olympiakos

33%

33%

26%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 0.95 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 0.92 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.77

0-1

2.68

1

3.86

2-3

1.98

2

3.44

4+

8.06

3

4.69

Ov 1.5

1.59

4

10.64

Un 1.5

2.68

5

38.46

Ov 2.5

2.97

6+

250.00

Un 2.5

1.51

Gg

2.28

Ov 3.5

8.06

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.14

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.27

3.27

2-3 goals

3.94

3.48

2.18

4+ goals

4.28

2.58

2.64

Ov 1.5

4.00

3.25

2.26

Un 1.5

2.57

3.27

3.27

Ov 2.5

3.34

7.02

1.79

Un 2.5

3.30

2.56

3.25

Ov 3.5

4.28

2.58

2.64

Un 3.5

3.21

3.39

2.54

Goal-Goal

5.16

2.27

2.73

No Goal

2.59

4.93

2.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.46

6.13

1.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.58

4.93

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aris vs AEK at 14 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and AEK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 14 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aris

2.87

2.43

6.3

Draw

2.96

3.52

-5.4

AEK

2.54

3.29

-9.0

Over 2.5

2.60

2.30

5.0

Under 2.5

1.47

1.77

-11.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aris, Over 2.5 (6.3 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aris in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance at home.
Aris, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Jan

Volos NFC

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Lamia

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

OFI Crete

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Dec

PAOK

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Atromitos

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Dec

Larisa

A

3

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N


AEK in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance as a guest.
AEK, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Jan

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Dec

Volos NFC

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Olympiakos

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Apollon

A

4

3

W

O

G

06 Dec

Panathinaikos

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Larisa

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aris and the red line for guest team, AEK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aris

23%

42%

21%

14%

AEK

33%

33%

31%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 0.96 goals and AEK to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1.27 goals and AEK to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.48

1

4.69

2-3

1.88

2

3.58

4+

5.52

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.94

Un 1.5

3.48

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

200.00

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.08

3.88

3.83

2-3 goals

2.87

3.83

2.56

4+ goals

2.03

2.55

8.62

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.40

3.12

Un 1.5

2.08

3.88

3.83

Ov 2.5

2.12

6.13

2.74

Un 2.5

2.72

2.66

3.90

Ov 3.5

2.03

2.55

8.62

Un 3.5

2.53

3.85

2.90

Goal-Goal

3.26

2.48

3.45

No Goal

1.90

6.49

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.39

5.38

2.53

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

6.49

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atromitos vs Lamia at 14 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 14 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

1.63

1.80

-5.8

Draw

3.70

3.80

-0.7

Lamia

5.47

5.56

-0.3

Over 2.5

2.17

2.58

-7.3

Under 2.5

1.68

1.63

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

OFI Crete

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Jan

PAOK

H

3

2

W

O

G

04 Jan

Volos NFC

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Dec

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Aris

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Larisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Apollon

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N


Lamia in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Jan

OFI Crete

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Aris

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Olympiakos

H

0

6

L

O

N

06 Dec

Giannina

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

PAOK

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Panathinaikos

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Oct

Panetolikos

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

21%

36%

23%

20%

Lamia

49%

34%

14%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.61 goals and Lamia to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.41 goals and Lamia to score 0.72 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

2.86

1

4.07

2-3

2.02

2

3.82

4+

6.45

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

8.93

Un 1.5

2.86

5

27.78

Ov 2.5

2.58

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.63

Gg

2.49

Ov 3.5

6.45

NoG

1.67

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

3.37

4.93

2-3 goals

1.72

4.12

5.63

4+ goals

1.63

3.97

7.38

Ov 1.5

1.70

4.09

5.96

Un 1.5

2.00

3.37

4.93

Ov 2.5

1.44

9.95

4.91

Un 2.5

2.13

2.73

6.06

Ov 3.5

1.63

3.97

7.38

Un 3.5

1.83

3.77

5.31

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.53

5.66

No Goal

1.55

5.75

5.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

7.23

3.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

5.75

4.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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