2021 01 12 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Olympiacos at 12 January 2021
Fenerbahce vs Baskonia at 12 January 2021
Khimki vs Barcelona at 12 January 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Valencia at 12 January 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Alba Berlin at 12 January 2021
Bayern Munich vs Zenit at 13 January 2021
CSKA Moscow vs Zalgiris at 13 January 2021
Panathinaikos vs Villeurbanne at 13 January 2021
Real Madrid vs Crvena Zvezda at 13 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Olympiacos at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Olympiacos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.51

2.91

Olympiacos

2.65

1.52

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-3.5

5.00

Olympiacos HC

+3.5

-5.00

Point Line

154.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 7

A

Alba Berlin

W

85

73

8

10

W 1

80

75

Dec 29

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

78

7

10

L 1

78

80

Dec 22

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

81

7

9

W 2

84

80

Dec 18

A

FC Barcelona

W

68

67

6

9

W 1

73

66

Dec 16

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

81

84

5

9

L 1

80

88

Dec 10

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

67

63

5

8

W 2

69

63

Dec 3

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

76

4

8

W 1

82

80

Nov 26

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

85

86

3

8

L 3

84

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 8

H

Bayern Munich

W

84

82

9

8

W 2

87

82

Dec 29

A

BC Khimki

W

105

88

8

8

W 1

91

87

Dec 23

A

Fenerbahce

L

77

84

7

8

L 3

78

90

Dec 18

H

Real Madrid

L

82

86

7

7

L 2

84

83

Dec 16

H

Valencia Basket

L

85

96

7

6

L 1

83

93

Dec 10

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

79

7

5

W 2

82

83

Dec 8

A

FC Barcelona

W

96

88

6

5

W 1

103

86

Dec 3

A

CSKA Moscow

L

61

80

5

5

L 2

61

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olympiacos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olympiacos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Olympiacos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 79 points and the Olympiacos 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Olympiacos

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

15.70

17.30

DRB

23.40

20.30

AST-TO

1.18

1.36

TRB

31.90

27.70

FTM

12.70

14.40

BL

2.40

3.00

FTA

16.40

18.30

PF-Fewer

19.40

21.30

ST

7.40

6.50

TO-Fewer

13.30

12.70

Ftper

0.77

0.78

ORBper

0.36

0.36

ORB

8.50

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fenerbahce vs Baskonia at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fenerbahce and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fenerbahce

1.6

7.65

Baskonia

2.42

1.15

Fenerbahce HC

-3.5

10.00

Baskonia HC

+3.5

-10.00

Point Line

155.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 7

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

73

71

8

10

W 3

74

75

Dec 30

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

81

59

7

10

W 2

80

62

Dec 23

H

Olympiacos

W

84

77

6

10

W 1

83

76

Dec 17

A

Zalgiris

L

62

99

5

10

L 3

64

97

Dec 15

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

71

79

5

9

L 2

70

76

Dec 10

A

Alba Berlin

L

63

89

5

8

L 1

60

91

Dec 3

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

73

65

5

7

W 1

79

67

Nov 27

H

Valencia Basket

L

86

90

4

7

L 4

84

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 7

H

CSKA Moscow

W

95

93

9

9

W 1

95

86

Jan 5

A

Alba Berlin

L

91

95

8

9

L 1

86

97

Dec 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

71

70

8

8

W 2

69

68

Dec 23

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

84

79

7

8

W 1

83

76

Dec 18

A

Bayern Munich

L

66

77

6

8

L 3

68

77

Dec 15

A

Zalgiris

L

73

92

6

7

L 2

75

90

Dec 10

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

63

67

6

6

L 1

64

67

Dec 4

A

Anadolu Efes

W

77

59

6

5

W 2

78

60

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fenerbahce (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fenerbahce will expected to score 75 points and the Baskonia 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fenerbahce

Baskonia

FG%

0.54

0.55

ASS

17.70

19.60

DRB

21.10

22.10

AST-TO

1.27

1.38

TRB

27.50

32.10

FTM

10.10

13.50

BL

1.70

2.90

FTA

12.10

18.20

PF-Fewer

18.80

18.10

ST

6.90

7.90

TO-Fewer

13.90

14.20

Ftper

0.84

0.74

ORBper

0.30

0.46

ORB

6.40

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Khimki vs Barcelona at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Barcelona for EuroLeague, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

3.35

1.83

Barcelona

1.35

2.20

Khimki HC

+6.5

-2.00

Barcelona HC

-6.5

2.00

Point Line

171.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 8

A

Zalgiris

L

75

102

2

16

L 10

77

100

Dec 29

H

Olympiacos

L

88

105

2

15

L 9

87

104

Dec 23

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

88

2

14

L 8

80

86

Dec 18

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

84

90

2

13

L 7

83

95

Dec 16

A

FC Barcelona

L

74

87

2

12

L 6

79

85

Dec 11

H

CSKA Moscow

L

87

96

2

11

L 5

87

89

Dec 8

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

93

102

2

10

L 4

92

99

Dec 4

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

80

2

9

L 3

80

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 7

H

Valencia Basket

W

89

72

12

6

W 1

87

70

Dec 30

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

90

11

6

L 3

80

90

Dec 22

A

Anadolu Efes

L

79

86

11

5

L 2

80

87

Dec 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

67

68

11

4

L 1

68

68

Dec 16

H

BC Khimki

W

87

74

11

3

W 2

75

73

Dec 11

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

87

71

10

3

W 1

86

69

Dec 8

H

Olympiacos

L

88

96

9

3

L 1

87

95

Dec 4

A

Zalgiris

W

73

62

9

2

W 1

75

61

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 77 points and the Barcelona 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Barcelona

FG%

0.54

0.50

ASS

19.40

17.10

DRB

21.90

18.20

AST-TO

1.37

1.36

TRB

29.60

26.80

FTM

13.30

13.40

BL

3.90

2.60

FTA

17.30

16.80

PF-Fewer

22.10

20.70

ST

5.60

6.80

TO-Fewer

14.20

12.60

Ftper

0.77

0.80

ORBper

0.35

0.47

ORB

7.60

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olimpia Milano vs Valencia at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Valencia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.51

2.35

Valencia

2.65

1.74

Olimpia Milano HC

-4.5

3.00

Valencia HC

+4.5

-3.00

Point Line

161.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 8

A

Real Madrid

W

80

76

10

7

W 1

81

73

Dec 30

H

CSKA Moscow

L

87

91

9

7

L 2

87

84

Dec 23

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

79

84

9

6

L 1

81

84

Dec 17

A

Anadolu Efes

W

72

69

9

5

W 2

73

70

Dec 15

A

Fenerbahce

W

79

71

8

5

W 1

80

76

Dec 11

A

FC Barcelona

L

71

87

7

5

L 1

76

85

Dec 8

A

BC Khimki

W

102

93

7

4

W 1

88

92

Dec 3

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

77

80

6

4

L 1

72

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 7

A

FC Barcelona

L

72

89

10

8

L 2

77

87

Dec 29

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

70

71

10

7

L 1

72

71

Dec 23

H

BC Khimki

W

88

82

10

6

W 1

76

81

Dec 18

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

73

76

9

6

L 1

74

80

Dec 16

A

Olympiacos

W

96

85

9

5

W 2

95

84

Dec 10

H

Anadolu Efes

W

76

74

8

5

W 1

77

75

Dec 8

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

85

7

5

L 2

78

88

Dec 3

H

Alba Berlin

L

92

100

7

4

L 1

87

102

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 81 points and the Valencia 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Valencia

FG%

0.55

0.57

ASS

15.10

20.40

DRB

20.80

20.30

AST-TO

1.40

1.71

TRB

27.40

27.70

FTM

14.00

13.20

BL

2.60

1.60

FTA

17.80

15.90

PF-Fewer

20.40

19.20

ST

6.80

6.10

TO-Fewer

10.80

11.90

Ftper

0.78

0.83

ORBper

0.32

0.36

ORB

6.60

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Anadolu Efes vs Alba Berlin at 12 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Alba Berlin for EuroLeague, which will take place on 12 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.13

1.68

Alba Berlin

6.55

2.48

Anadolu Efes HC

-11.5

-3.50

Alba Berlin HC

+11.5

3.50

Point Line

161.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 8

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

102

80

9

9

W 1

100

84

Dec 29

H

Real Madrid

L

65

73

8

9

L 1

66

70

Dec 22

H

FC Barcelona

W

86

79

8

8

W 1

92

77

Dec 17

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

69

72

7

8