EuroLeague games Jan 14 – Jan 15

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Anadolu Efes vs Khimki at 14 January 2021
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Baskonia at 14 January 2021
Alba Berlin vs Olimpia Milano at 14 January 2021
Zenit vs Zalgiris at 15 January 2021
CSKA Moscow vs Barcelona at 15 January 2021
Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos at 15 January 2021
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid at 15 January 2021
Olympiacos vs Villeurbanne at 15 January 2021
Valencia vs Crvena Zvezda at 15 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Anadolu Efes vs Khimki at 14 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Khimki for EuroLeague, which will take place on 14 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Anadolu Efes	1.2	1.99
Khimki	4.8	2.01
Anadolu Efes HC	-9.5	-1.00
Khimki HC	+9.5	1.00
Point Line	169.5	158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 12	H	Alba Berlin	W	84	76	10	9	W 2	80	78
Jan 8	A	LDLC ASVEL	W	102	80	9	9	W 1	100	84
Dec 29	H	Real Madrid	L	65	73	8	9	L 1	66	70
Dec 22	H	FC Barcelona	W	86	79	8	8	W 1	92	77
Dec 17	H	AX Armani Exchange Olimpia	L	69	72	7	8	L 3	68	70
Dec 15	A	CSKA Moscow	L	65	100	7	7	L 2	65	92
Dec 10	A	Valencia Basket	L	74	76	7	6	L 1	72	74
Dec 8	H	LDLC ASVEL	W	72	68	7	5	W 1	71	72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 12	H	FC Barcelona	L	75	87	2	17	L 11	80	85
Jan 8	A	Zalgiris	L	75	102	2	16	L 10	77	100
Dec 29	H	Olympiacos	L	88	105	2	15	L 9	87	104
Dec 23	A	Valencia Basket	L	82	88	2	14	L 8	80	86
Dec 18	A	LDLC ASVEL	L	84	90	2	13	L 7	83	95
Dec 16	A	FC Barcelona	L	74	87	2	12	L 6	79	85
Dec 11	H	CSKA Moscow	L	87	96	2	11	L 5	87	89
Dec 8	H	AX Armani Exchange Olimpia	L	93	102	2	10	L 4	92	99

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 84 points and the Khimki 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Anadolu Efes	Khimki
FG%	0.54	0.54
ASS	17.30	19.40
DRB	19.80	21.90
AST-TO	1.59	1.37
TRB	26.90	29.60
FTM	13.20	13.30
BL	3.40	3.90
FTA	17.00	17.30
PF-Fewer	17.40	22.10
ST	6.80	5.60
TO-Fewer	10.90	14.20
Ftper	0.78	0.77
ORBper	0.36	0.35
ORB	7.10	7.60

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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Baskonia at 14 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 14 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Maccabi Tel Aviv	1.5	4.71
Baskonia	2.7	1.27
Maccabi Tel Aviv HC	-4.5	8.00
Baskonia HC	+4.5	-8.00
Point Line	153.5	154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 12	H	Olympiacos	L	87	89	8	11	L 1	86	88
Jan 7	A	Alba Berlin	W	85	73	8	10	W 1	80	75
Dec 29	H	Zenit Saint Petersburg	L	72	78	7	10	L 1	78	80
Dec 22	H	Panathinaikos OPAP	W	89	81	7	9	W 2	84	80
Dec 18	A	FC Barcelona	W	68	67	6	9	W 1	73	66
Dec 16	A	LDLC ASVEL	L	81	84	5	9	L 1	80	88
Dec 10	A	Kirolbet Baskonia	W	67	63	5	8	W 2	69	63
Dec 3	H	Crvena zvezda mts	W	81	76	4	8	W 1	82	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 12	A	Fenerbahce	L	76	96	9	10	L 1	77	103
Jan 7	H	CSKA Moscow	W	95	93	9	9	W 1	95	86
Jan 5	A	Alba Berlin	L	91	95	8	9	L 1	86	97
Dec 29	H	Valencia Basket	W	71	70	8	8	W 2	69	68
Dec 23	A	AX Armani Exchange Olimpia	W	84	79	7	8	W 1	83	76
Dec 18	A	Bayern Munich	L	66	77	6	8	L 3	68	77
Dec 15	A	Zalgiris	L	73	92	6	7	L 2	75	90
Dec 10	H	Maccabi Tel Aviv	L	63	67	6	6	L 1	64	67

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 78 points and the Baskonia 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Var	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Baskonia
FG%	0.53	0.55
ASS	15.70	19.60
DRB	23.40	22.10
AST-TO	1.18	1.38
TRB	31.90	32.10
FTM	12.70	13.50
BL	2.40	2.90
FTA	16.40	18.20
PF-Fewer	19.40	18.10
ST	7.40	7.90
TO-Fewer	13.30	14.20
Ftper	0.77	0.74
ORBper	0.36	0.46
ORB	8.50	10.10

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Alba Berlin vs Olimpia Milano at 14 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Olimpia Milano for EuroLeague, which will take place on 14 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Alba Berlin	3.75	1.81
Olimpia Milano	1.3	2.23
Alba Berlin HC	+7.5	-2.50
Olimpia Milano HC	-7.5	2.50
Point Line	156.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 12	A	Anadolu Efes	L	76	84	7	12	L 2	77	85
Jan 7	H	Maccabi Tel Aviv	L	73	85	7	11	L 1	74	86
Jan 5	H	Kirolbet Baskonia	W	95	91	7	10	W 1	98	91
Dec 29	H	Zalgiris	L	71	74	6	10	L 3	73	72
Dec 22	A	Real Madrid	L	62	91	6	9	L 2	63	87
Dec 17	A	Panathinaikos OPAP	L	69	92	6	8	L 1	65	91
Dec 15	A	Crvena zvezda mts	W	90	84	6	7	W 3	91	89
Dec 10	H	Fenerbahce	W	89	63	5	7	W 2	90	68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 12	H	Valencia Basket	W	95	80	11	7	W 2	93	78
Jan 8	A	Real Madrid	W	80	76	10	7	W 1	81	73
Dec 30	H	CSKA Moscow	L	87	91	9	7	L 2	87	84
Dec 23	H	Kirolbet Baskonia	L	79	84	9	6	L 1	81	84
Dec 17	A	Anadolu Efes	W	72	69	9	5	W 2	73	70
Dec 15	A	Fenerbahce	W	79	71	8	5	W 1	80	76
Dec 11	A	FC Barcelona	L	71	87	7	5	L 1	76	85
Dec 8	A	BC Khimki	W	102	93	7	4	W 1	88	92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Alba Berlin (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Alba Berlin will expected to score 79 points and the Olimpia Milano 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Var	Alba Berlin	Olimpia Milano
FG%	0.52	0.55
ASS	19.80	15.10
DRB	18.90	20.80
AST-TO	1.45	1.40
TRB	28.20	27.40
FTM	10.70	14.00
BL	1.90	2.60
FTA	12.90	17.80
PF-Fewer	19.20	20.40
ST	7.10	6.80
TO-Fewer	13.70	10.80
Ftper	0.83	0.78
ORBper	0.49	0.32
ORB	9.20	6.60

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Zenit vs Zalgiris at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Zalgiris for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Zenit	1.57	2.98
Zalgiris	2.5	1.51
Zenit HC	-3.5	5.00
Zalgiris HC	+3.5	-5.00
Point Line	153.5	152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 13	A	Bayern Munich	L	80	82	11	6	L 1	83	82
Jan 7	A	Panathinaikos OPAP	W	89	77	11	5	W 3	84	76
Dec 29	A	Maccabi Tel Aviv	W	78	72	10	5	W 2	80	72
Dec 22	H	Crvena zvezda mts	W	98	69	9	5	W 1	99	73
Dec 18	A	CSKA Moscow	L	65	83	8	5	L 1	65	77
Dec 16	H	Bayern Munich	W	79	75	8	4	W 1	82	75
Dec 10	A	Real Madrid	L	72	79	7	4	L 1	73	76
Dec 8	A	Valencia Basket	W	85	72	7	3	W 1	83	70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 13	A	CSKA Moscow	L	73	83	11	8	L 1	73	77
Jan 8	H	BC Khimki	W	102	75	11	7	W 6	88	74
Dec 29	A	Alba Berlin	W	74	71	10	7	W 5	70	73
Dec 23	H	Bayern Munich	W	74	73	9	7	W 4	77	73
Dec 17	H	Fenerbahce	W	99	62	8	7	W 3	100	66
Dec 15	H	Kirolbet Baskonia	W	92	73	7	7	W 2	94	73
Dec 11	A	Panathinaikos OPAP	W	81	69	6	7	W 1	76	69
Dec 4	H	FC Barcelona	L	62	73	5	7	L 6	66	71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Zalgiris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit will expected to score 77 points and the Zalgiris 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Var	Zenit	Zalgiris
FG%	0.53	0.58
ASS	15.00	19.00
DRB	18.60	21.60
AST-TO	1.27	1.54
TRB	25.90	29.70
FTM	12.80	13.20
BL	2.40	1.30
FTA	16.60	15.20
PF-Fewer	20.80	19.70
ST	6.80	6.20
TO-Fewer	11.80	12.30
Ftper	0.77	0.87
ORBper	0.39	0.37
ORB	7.30	8.10

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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CSKA Moscow vs Barcelona at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Barcelona for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
CSKA Moscow	1.7	1.41
Barcelona	2.2	3.41
CSKA Moscow HC	-2.5	-6.00
Barcelona HC	+2.5	6.00
Point Line	155.5	158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 13	H	Zalgiris	W	83	73	15	4	W 1	85	71
Jan 7	A	Kirolbet Baskonia	L	93	95	14	4	L 1	95	95
Dec 30	A	AX Armani Exchange Olimpia	W	91	87	14	3	W 12	90	84
Dec 22