EuroLeague games Jan 14 – Jan 15



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Anadolu Efes vs Khimki at 14 January 2021
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Baskonia at 14 January 2021
Alba Berlin vs Olimpia Milano at 14 January 2021
Zenit vs Zalgiris at 15 January 2021
CSKA Moscow vs Barcelona at 15 January 2021
Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos at 15 January 2021
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid at 15 January 2021
Olympiacos vs Villeurbanne at 15 January 2021
Valencia vs Crvena Zvezda at 15 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Anadolu Efes vs Khimki at 14 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Khimki for EuroLeague, which will take place on 14 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.2

1.99

Khimki

4.8

2.01

Anadolu Efes HC

-9.5

-1.00

Khimki HC

+9.5

1.00

Point Line

169.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

H

Alba Berlin

W

84

76

10

9

W 2

80

78

Jan 8

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

102

80

9

9

W 1

100

84

Dec 29

H

Real Madrid

L

65

73

8

9

L 1

66

70

Dec 22

H

FC Barcelona

W

86

79

8

8

W 1

92

77

Dec 17

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

69

72

7

8

L 3

68

70

Dec 15

A

CSKA Moscow

L

65

100

7

7

L 2

65

92

Dec 10

A

Valencia Basket

L

74

76

7

6

L 1

72

74

Dec 8

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

72

68

7

5

W 1

71

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

H

FC Barcelona

L

75

87

2

17

L 11

80

85

Jan 8

A

Zalgiris

L

75

102

2

16

L 10

77

100

Dec 29

H

Olympiacos

L

88

105

2

15

L 9

87

104

Dec 23

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

88

2

14

L 8

80

86

Dec 18

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

84

90

2

13

L 7

83

95

Dec 16

A

FC Barcelona

L

74

87

2

12

L 6

79

85

Dec 11

H

CSKA Moscow

L

87

96

2

11

L 5

87

89

Dec 8

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

93

102

2

10

L 4

92

99

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 84 points and the Khimki 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Khimki

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

17.30

19.40

DRB

19.80

21.90

AST-TO

1.59

1.37

TRB

26.90

29.60

FTM

13.20

13.30

BL

3.40

3.90

FTA

17.00

17.30

PF-Fewer

17.40

22.10

ST

6.80

5.60

TO-Fewer

10.90

14.20

Ftper

0.78

0.77

ORBper

0.36

0.35

ORB

7.10

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Baskonia at 14 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 14 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.5

4.71

Baskonia

2.7

1.27

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-4.5

8.00

Baskonia HC

+4.5

-8.00

Point Line

153.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

H

Olympiacos

L

87

89

8

11

L 1

86

88

Jan 7

A

Alba Berlin

W

85

73

8

10

W 1

80

75

Dec 29

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

78

7

10

L 1

78

80

Dec 22

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

81

7

9

W 2

84

80

Dec 18

A

FC Barcelona

W

68

67

6

9

W 1

73

66

Dec 16

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

81

84

5

9

L 1

80

88

Dec 10

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

67

63

5

8

W 2

69

63

Dec 3

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

76

4

8

W 1

82

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

A

Fenerbahce

L

76

96

9

10

L 1

77

103

Jan 7

H

CSKA Moscow

W

95

93

9

9

W 1

95

86

Jan 5

A

Alba Berlin

L

91

95

8

9

L 1

86

97

Dec 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

71

70

8

8

W 2

69

68

Dec 23

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

84

79

7

8

W 1

83

76

Dec 18

A

Bayern Munich

L

66

77

6

8

L 3

68

77

Dec 15

A

Zalgiris

L

73

92

6

7

L 2

75

90

Dec 10

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

63

67

6

6

L 1

64

67

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 78 points and the Baskonia 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Baskonia

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

15.70

19.60

DRB

23.40

22.10

AST-TO

1.18

1.38

TRB

31.90

32.10

FTM

12.70

13.50

BL

2.40

2.90

FTA

16.40

18.20

PF-Fewer

19.40

18.10

ST

7.40

7.90

TO-Fewer

13.30

14.20

Ftper

0.77

0.74

ORBper

0.36

0.46

ORB

8.50

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Alba Berlin vs Olimpia Milano at 14 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Olimpia Milano for EuroLeague, which will take place on 14 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Alba Berlin

3.75

1.81

Olimpia Milano

1.3

2.23

Alba Berlin HC

+7.5

-2.50

Olimpia Milano HC

-7.5

2.50

Point Line

156.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

A

Anadolu Efes

L

76

84

7

12

L 2

77

85

Jan 7

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

73

85

7

11

L 1

74

86

Jan 5

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

95

91

7

10

W 1

98

91

Dec 29

H

Zalgiris

L

71

74

6

10

L 3

73

72

Dec 22

A

Real Madrid

L

62

91

6

9

L 2

63

87

Dec 17

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

69

92

6

8

L 1

65

91

Dec 15

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

90

84

6

7

W 3

91

89

Dec 10

H

Fenerbahce

W

89

63

5

7

W 2

90

68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

H

Valencia Basket

W

95

80

11

7

W 2

93

78

Jan 8

A

Real Madrid

W

80

76

10

7

W 1

81

73

Dec 30

H

CSKA Moscow

L

87

91

9

7

L 2

87

84

Dec 23

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

79

84

9

6

L 1

81

84

Dec 17

A

Anadolu Efes

W

72

69

9

5

W 2

73

70

Dec 15

A

Fenerbahce

W

79

71

8

5

W 1

80

76

Dec 11

A

FC Barcelona

L

71

87

7

5

L 1

76

85

Dec 8

A

BC Khimki

W

102

93

7

4

W 1

88

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Alba Berlin (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Alba Berlin will expected to score 79 points and the Olimpia Milano 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Alba Berlin

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

19.80

15.10

DRB

18.90

20.80

AST-TO

1.45

1.40

TRB

28.20

27.40

FTM

10.70

14.00

BL

1.90

2.60

FTA

12.90

17.80

PF-Fewer

19.20

20.40

ST

7.10

6.80

TO-Fewer

13.70

10.80

Ftper

0.83

0.78

ORBper

0.49

0.32

ORB

9.20

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zenit vs Zalgiris at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Zalgiris for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit

1.57

2.98

Zalgiris

2.5

1.51

Zenit HC

-3.5

5.00

Zalgiris HC

+3.5

-5.00

Point Line

153.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

A

Bayern Munich

L

80

82

11

6

L 1

83

82

Jan 7

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

77

11

5

W 3

84

76

Dec 29

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

78

72

10

5

W 2

80

72

Dec 22

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

98

69

9

5

W 1

99

73

Dec 18

A

CSKA Moscow

L

65

83

8

5

L 1

65

77

Dec 16

H

Bayern Munich

W

79

75

8

4

W 1

82

75

Dec 10

A

Real Madrid

L

72

79

7

4

L 1

73

76

Dec 8

A

Valencia Basket

W

85

72

7

3

W 1

83

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

83

11

8

L 1

73

77

Jan 8

H

BC Khimki

W

102

75

11

7

W 6

88

74

Dec 29

A

Alba Berlin

W

74

71

10

7

W 5

70

73

Dec 23

H

Bayern Munich

W

74

73

9

7

W 4

77

73

Dec 17

H

Fenerbahce

W

99

62

8

7

W 3

100

66

Dec 15

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

92

73

7

7

W 2

94

73

Dec 11

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

81

69

6

7

W 1

76

69

Dec 4

H

FC Barcelona

L

62

73

5

7

L 6

66

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Zalgiris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit will expected to score 77 points and the Zalgiris 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zenit

Zalgiris

FG%

0.53

0.58

ASS

15.00

19.00

DRB

18.60

21.60

AST-TO

1.27

1.54

TRB

25.90

29.70

FTM

12.80

13.20

BL

2.40

1.30

FTA

16.60

15.20

PF-Fewer

20.80

19.70

ST

6.80

6.20

TO-Fewer

11.80

12.30

Ftper

0.77

0.87

ORBper

0.39

0.37

ORB

7.30

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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CSKA Moscow vs Barcelona at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Barcelona for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.7

1.41

Barcelona

2.2

3.41

CSKA Moscow HC

-2.5

-6.00

Barcelona HC

+2.5

6.00

Point Line

155.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

H

Zalgiris

W

83

73

15

4

W 1

85

71

Jan 7

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

93

95

14

4

L 1

95

95

Dec 30

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

91

87

14

3

W 12

90

84

Dec 22